In a sudden turn of events, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that he had signed a peace deal with Azerbaijan and Russia, he said this with a heavy heart. It has come as a surprise to many people, even the citizens of Armenia too. People have taken to streets criticising the decision, and forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh have said that they will not stop protecting the region and all this disappointment is because it looks like surrender on Armenia’s part.
The leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh is also stunned and disappointed. The thing to be noted is that Russia did not enter the fighting and could not overtly support the Armenian cause, while it had to sit and watch the things unfold with Turkey supporting Azerbaijan all through this. However, the question remains that why did Putin not support Armenia in this struggle. The obvious answer is the failure of Donald Trump to make it back to the White House.
Moscow was biding the time by calling for ceasefires and containing the fightings, so that, as the situation clears in the US Presidential elections, Russia would be able to take a more calculated step which will not backfire. Russia was hoping for a Trump re-election as it has been easier to work with Trump rather than the democrats. Donald Trump is a very realist leader and thinks like a businessman, so Russian actions in Azerbaijan and Armenian conflict could have been palatable by him. However, Joe Biden and democrats have been excessively harsh on Russia, and the Obama administration is a shining example of the same.
Putin knows very well, as democrats come to power, with a Joe Biden victory pretty obvious, he would not miss any opportunity to attack Russia as it will help them consolidate and unify the USA from all this division. And as Democrats want to diverge the US anger away from China and Coronavirus, any aggressive Russian action would be highly helpful for the new administration in Washington. It is for the same reason, Moscow has refrained from congratulating Joe Biden and is waiting for all the get clarified before making a statement.
The peace deal comes in the backdrop of weeks of bloodshed, and intense fighting. The Azeris have claimed to have gotten control of most of the territories that they lost during the previous war in the 90s. Aliyev had earlier declared that they have taken Shusha, often described as ‘the Jerusalem of the Nagorno-Karabakh’ for its religious significance. All of this has lead to a lot of anger among Armenians, as the Azeri tall claims make the peace deal sound somewhat similar to a surrender.
The situation has become out of control with the crowd taking over the parliament and even lynching their own Speaker of the parliament. The situation is getting worse with every passing moment.
VIDEO:
Speaker of Armenian Parliament was dragged out of his vehicle and lynched by angry Armenians.
— FJ (@Natsecjeff) November 10, 2020
Even in the face of too confident Azerbaijan, this is in reference to the incident when Azerbaijan took down a Russian helicopter and apologised afterwards. Russia still tried to get the peace deal signed to control the situation from escalating further. Moscow has now sent its peacekeeping forces into the Nagorno-Karabakh region to maintain peace and make sure that the clauses of the deal are met.
The Russians understand International Relations and Geopolitics way better than many others. They know if Moscow gets involved in the fighting, the democrats led-USA will portray them as the villains and the world’s attention will divert from Beijing. This will save Beijing from world’s wrath and will save democrats by projecting them as stern against Russia and it will counteract for Russia as it will further drift into the Chinese faction. Considering all this, Russia has decided to not let the emotions dictate the terms, rather reasoning prevails and with this peace deal it has opted for waiting for a better opportunity to handle the situation.