Iran relations: The Islamic Republic of Iran has been a subject of international concern for several years now. Iran has been under economic sanctions by the United States for over a decade now, and despite being under tremendous pressure, the country has emerged as a regional power with significant influence in the Middle East. The country’s vast resources, geopolitical location, and revolutionary ideology have enabled it to resist the pressure exerted by the international community, and it is now on its way to becoming a major power in the region.
For years, the U.S. government has imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, which have severely impacted the country’s economy. These sanctions have led to high inflation rates, currency devaluation, and unemployment, all of which have resulted in the Iranian people bearing the brunt of the economic crisis. Nevertheless, despite the economic challenges, Iran has managed to develop a strong domestic industry and has been able to rely on its vast oil and gas reserves to maintain its position as an important energy exporter.
Iran’s military strength is also a significant factor in its emergence as a regional power. The country has a powerful and well-trained military force that has been battle-tested in the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts. Iran’s military also possesses sophisticated technology, including long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which have been successfully deployed in several regional conflicts.
The Shiite nation has seen some unprecedented regional realignments in the recent months, which has the potential to completely alter the trajectory of West Asian geopolitics.
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Russia-Iran bonhomie:
The recent Russo-Ukrainian war has led to a significant shift in the global geopolitical landscape, with several countries rethinking their alliances and partnerships. One of the most notable developments has been the growing cooperation between Iran and Russia, two countries that have historically had complex and often tumultuous relations. While this partnership has raised concerns in some quarters, it also presents opportunities for both countries and the wider international community.
The relationship between Iran and Russia has been shaped by a range of factors, including shared economic interests, regional security concerns, and a shared opposition to Western dominance in the international arena. In recent years, this relationship has been strengthened by a number of developments, including Russia’s support for Iran in the face of international sanctions and its involvement in the Syrian conflict. One of the most significant aspects of the Iran-Russia partnership is their cooperation in the energy sector. Russia is a major oil and gas producer, and Iran has significant energy reserves, making the two countries natural partners in the energy market.
In addition to their economic ties, Iran and Russia share concerns about regional security. Both countries have been involved in the Syrian conflict, with Russia providing military support to the Assad regime and Iran supporting Shia militias fighting against ISIS. This cooperation has helped to stabilize the situation in Syria and has contributed to the defeat of ISIS in the country. The growing Iran-Russia partnership has also raised concerns in Western quarters. Some observers have suggested that this alliance could pose a massive threat to the United States and its allies in the region.
Iran-Saudi restoration:
Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization in Beijing is a major turning point in the re-composition of the Middle East. Just a month back, not even a hard-core realist would have thought that the Saudi and Iranian governments would shake hands to restore diplomatic relations without American intervention.
Arguably, the deal is an indication that the US influence it West Asia may be waning and relatively an increase in China’s clout. To be clear, the US-Iran ties have remained frosty since the 1979 Islamic revolution, when Ayatollah Khomeini led a coup against the Shah Reza Pehlavi regime.
Subsequently, the 444-day-long hostage crisis involving US diplomats and citizens in Tehran in 1979–1981 added insult to injury. Since then Iran has been part of the so-called ‘Axis of Evil’, a phrase coined by former US president George Bush for Iran and North Korea in 2002.
In September 2020, when the US mediated between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, to sign the Abraham Accords, it was assumed that the Western nation would soon have Saudi Arabia joining the forum and rallying against Iran. However, Saudi Arabia took a cautious approach and didn’t join the accord. The COVID-19 crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war detoured the US from prioritizing the Gulf Region. The slowdown of the economy due to the COVID-19 crisis and China’s growing influence in the South-Pacific region dealt a heavy blow to the US.
The Iranian regime back home was facing huge protests as its economy had gone to dogs because of global economic sanctions. It couldn’t afford to stay hostile to the global powers for long. The regime in the Shia nation decided to change its stance and opened the door for reconciliation. China, which is Iran’s biggest business partner and also purchases oil from Saudi Arabia in large quantities, saw it as an opportunity. It tried to forge a deal between the two Gulf nations.
The deal can work on different platforms. Good relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will lead to fewer conflicts in the region. The Saudi and the Iranian regimes have supported proxies in conflict-ridden areas like Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. If they work on the peace of the area, there will be fewer conflicts, and the oil rate is likely to drop.
Iran-Iraq camaraderie
The growing Iran-Iraq relations have indeed posed a challenge to U.S. ambitions in the Middle East region. The U.S. has historically had a significant presence and influence in the Middle East, and has sought to maintain its strategic interests and influence in the region. Iran and Iraq, two of the largest and most powerful countries in the Middle East, have historically had a contentious relationship, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. However, in recent years, the Iran and Iraq have taken steps to improve their relations, particularly since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003.
The U.S. has been concerned about the growing relationship between Iran and Iraq, particularly as Iran has been accused of supporting Shiite militias in Iraq and attempting to exert influence over Iraqi politics. Recently, Iraq and Iran have even signed a border security agreement, a move Iraqi officials say is aimed primarily at tightening the frontier with Iraq’s Kurdish region, where Tehran says Kurdish armed groups pose a threat to its security.
Under the signed security deal, Iraq pledged it would not allow armed groups to use its territory in the Iraqi Kurdish region to launch any border-crossing attacks on neighbor Iran. The growing Iran-Iraq relations have thus posed a challenge to U.S. ambitions in the region by potentially reducing its influence and leverage in Iraq. This could have significant implications for the U.S. and its strategic interests in the Middle East, particularly if Iraq becomes more closely aligned with Iran and less willing to cooperate with the U.S.
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America’s waning influence:
The changing power dynamics within the West Asians nations has been coupled with a dwindling influence of America and NATO in the region. You see, NATO’s involvement in the Middle East has been a complex and evolving issue over the past few decades. However, the alliance’s focus and priorities in the region did shift after its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Before the conflict, NATO had been heavily involved in the Middle East. However, soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s priorities shifted towards countering Russian aggression and enhancing its presence in Eastern Europe. This led to a reduction in NATO’s involvement in the Middle East and a shift in focus towards its traditional role of deterring and defending against Russian aggression in Europe.
This shift in focus, coupled with the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the rise of non-state actors such as ISIS, left a power vacuum in the region that other actors, including Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey, sought to fill. This resulted in increased involvement and influence by these actors in the Middle East, often at the expense of NATO’s interests and objectives. This has prompted America to save its sinking ship and thus we are witnessing an unprecedented push by Washington to revive the Iran nuclear deal,in its last-ditch attempt to maintain its influence in the region.
All said and done, Iran’s emergence as a major regional power is a force to reckon with. Despite years of economic sanctions by the United States, Iran has managed to develop a strong domestic industry and maintain its position as an important energy exporter. Its military strength and involvement in regional conflicts have also contributed to its rising influence in the Middle East. While its rise as a power has been controversial, Iran has demonstrated that it is willing to defend its interests and will not be easily intimidated by external pressures. As such, the international community will need to engage with Iran constructively and find ways to work with the country to address shared concerns in the region.
