European officials are now concerned that if Trump returns to the White House, their carefully designed sanctions against Russia might face a potential derailment.
Trump is a trade man; he cares more about trade than USA’s geopolitical alliances. And that’s why, Trump’s possible re-election has sparked a wave of preparation in Brussels.
Here’s a look at why the EU’s leaders are rethinking their sanctions strategy and how they plan to outlast any potential “Trump Effect” on the West’s stance toward Russia.
To understand the EU’s current apprehension, one must revisit the Iranian nuclear deal. During his first term, Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the internationally agreed framework, leaving the EU scrambling to uphold it without Washington’s support.
Now, European leaders are wary of a repeat in the Ukraien war. And they have reason to be. The sanctions on Russia directly affect European economies, and a sudden policy U-turn could upend their entire stance.
If Trump were to cut back on sanctions, the EU could find itself standing alone against Russia. As we know it, Washington enforces sanctions with “sweeping powers” that the EU simply doesn’t possess. Translation? If Trump drifts away, Europe’s sanctions will be far harder to enforce without American muscle.
Europe is now looking to strengthen its sanctions against Moscow with an array of new measures. Think of it as adding superglue to make sanctions Trump-proof. Here’s what’s on the table:
“Catch-All” Clauses: These are, essentially, the bureaucratic equivalent of putting extra locks on the doors. EU officials are exploring ways to create broader, catch-all sanctions clauses that would let them intercept Russia-bound shipments based on “suspicion” alone. For instance, if a shipment is going to cross Russia en route to Central Asia but looks “illogical,” customs agents could seize it.
Longer Asset Freezes: As it stands, the EU’s freeze on Russian central bank assets (which totals a jaw-dropping $300 billion) must be renewed every six months by member states. With Trump looming large in their minds, some EU policymakers have suggested extending this to 36 months.
Oil Shipping Curbs: Another initiative involves tightening restrictions on Russian oil shipments.
But with all these measures, would EU be able to throw a wrench into the EU’s efforts to isolate Russia economically?
As Trump himself has hinted, he doesn’t see eye to eye with the EU on trade or foreign policy. Recently, he compared the bloc to a “mini China,” highlighting what he sees as a $312 billion trade deficit in favor of Europe. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the EU as a trade partner.
In fact, it shows Trump may ditch EU and embrace the booming Russian economy.
So, EU might be scrambling to further boost sanctions on Russia, they won’t carry the same weight without USA’s backing.
Trump’s focus would be on to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible and kickstart the process of reconciliation with the Kremlin.
Trump on several occasions has argued that he could cut US aid to Ukraine if he returns to the White House. He has also dodged whether he wants Kiev to defeat Moscow, instead claiming that he could end the war within 24 hours. Last week, the GOP nominee insisted that “should never have let that war start. That war is a loser.”