The geopolitical situation in West Asia has been changing day by day since last year. From the normalization of ties between Isarel and Saudi Arabia to the condemnation of Genocide, from undefeatable force to Houthis reaching central Israel with their missile and from indirect confrontation to direct confrontation between Isarel and Iran, a lot has changed in the region, which shows how dynamics of the domestic and regional politics of West Asia is.
The Axis of Resistance faces a serious problem of leader deficit in the region. The killing of top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, the accidental cease of Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, and the current illness of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei have created a leadership vacuum for the Axis of Resistance group. Given the age and illness of the incumbent Ayatollah of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the possible ascend of a new Supreme Leader in Iran looks imperative.
Leadership Vacuum in the Axis of Resistance and Possible Impact
The Isarel-Hamas war and its spillover effect in Lebanon and Iran has caused substantial damage to Hezbollah and its supporter Iran. The top leaders of Hezbollah, such as Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, have been eliminated, along with the unprecedented walkie-talkie and paper attack and sudden assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which have created a sense of psychological fear in the supporters of the Axis of Resistance. Not to forget, the list of eliminated leaders of the different hierarchies of the organization has been released by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), showing that they have wiped out a whole generation of leaders, which can cause significant impediments to the organizational day-to-day functioning. Studies indicate that when military or hierarchical militant groups lose their top leadership, they typically suffer severe operational disruption. Unlike ideological movements, these organizations rely heavily on clear chains of command, coordinated logistics, and centralized decision-making, which are also characteristic of Hamas and Hezbollah. Leadership elimination often creates immediate command vacuums that lower-ranking officers struggle to fill, particularly if multiple leaders are removed simultaneously. The loss of experienced commanders frequently leads to reduced tactical effectiveness, broken communication channels, and demoralized fighters. Groups may fragment as unit commanders compete for power or lose access to critical resources and intelligence networks. Research shows these organizations are especially vulnerable during the first few weeks following leadership losses when confusion and disorganization peak. This vulnerability often provides opportunities for opposing forces to degrade the group’s capabilities further. IDF is utilizing the situation and power vacuum by continuously attacking the groups in order to fulfil its goal.
The Blow is Unreplaceable
The Ayatollah’s deteriorated health is a ‘pimple has grown on an ulcer’ movement for the proxies and Iran. It is also true that Israel has also suffered multiple setbacks in the war. For the first time in Israel’s war history, the Israel Defense Fort has failed to detect and protect Israeli soil from the missiles and drones of Hautis and Iran. The theory of escalation dominance (a nation’s ability to control the escalation of a conflict, including the pace and intensity), which John Meishiemer always talks about, has been challenged. The normalization of ties with Arab nations in the region has been put on hold. These losses can be replaced over time by the Israelis. However, the loss that the Axis of Resistance has received in terms of elimination a generation of leaders is unreplaceable in the future.
The path is extremely tough for the new set of leaders to navigate in these challenging times. The lack of experience in dealing with international and regional politics with these new sets of leaders may be seen in the coming years. They may not be totally defeated knowing the emotional, religious and ideological connection of the people, especially Shia, but Israel’s strategic elimination of the leaders and some of their natural deaths will paralyze the function, structure and discipline of the organization in coming years.
Possible Supreme Leader and His Challenges
The potential transition of Mojtaba Khamenei to the position of Supreme Leader marks a critical juncture for Iran and its axis of resistance, particularly in the wake of significant leadership losses. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and President Raisi and the illness of Ayatollah Khamenei have created unprecedented challenges for Iran’s regional alliance system, with Hezbollah experiencing succession difficulties and Hamas being significantly weakened. Mojtaba’s emergence from the shadows, characterized by his recent public appearances and meetings with Hezbollah officials, signals a calculated preparation for leadership transition during a period of heightened regional tensions. While his background suggests a continuation of his father’s radical ideological stance and harsh internal security measures, his elevation would likely prioritize regime stability over public concerns about nepotism. His extensive experience in managing shadow Iranian entities and membership in high-powered decision-making committees positions him as a figure deeply embedded in Iran’s political-military apparatus. However, this transition comes at a time when Iran’s reputation as a “safe haven” for Axis groups has been compromised, as evidenced by successful Israeli operations against key figures within Tehran itself. Mojtaba’s leadership must address these security vulnerabilities while maintaining Iran’s regional influence through its proxy network. The timing of his increased public profile, coinciding with escalating tensions with Israel and internal succession challenges within Hezbollah, suggests an urgent need to project stability and continuity in Iran’s leadership structure. This transition would likely focus on reinforcing Iran’s deterrence capabilities and rebuilding confidence among its regional allies, though it may face challenges from both reformist and hardline camps concerned about the consolidation of power within the Khamenei family.
The potential return of Trump to the White House adds another layer of complexity, given his previous withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal and role in the Abraham Accords. This international dimension, combined with weakened Iranian proxies and Israel’s aggressive stance, poses significant challenges for the new Iranian leadership. Mojtaba must navigate cautiously, focusing on strengthening Iran’s position as a spiritual and political leader in a region where the path forward has become increasingly treacherous.
The path ahead is extremely tough for the new set of leaders. While they may not be totally defeated, given the emotional, religious, and ideological connections of their supporters, Israel’s strategic elimination of leaders coupled with natural succession challenges will likely impair the function, structure, and discipline of these organizations in the coming years. The lack of experience in dealing with international and regional politics among these new leaders may significantly impact their effectiveness in navigating these challenging times.