Trump is hardly 50 days away from taking charge of the Oval office and Iran has only that much time to act fast and make itself Trump-proof. If the Shi’ite nation wants to outlive the Trump administration 2.0, it must develop and test a nuclear bomb within next 50 days. If Iran fails to do so, Trump will make sure its nuclear programme is bulldozed to ground as soon as possible.
Trump team is signaling a major shift in USA’s Iran policy. So far, Washington DC relied on sanctions and diplomacy to exert pressure on the theocratic regime. Trump wants to go a step further. According to Wall Street Journal, Trump is keeping open the possibility of launching pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
During recent calls, Trump has told Israeli PM Netanyahu that he is most worried about the prospect of Tehran getting nukes; however, he wants to avoid the involvement of the US military in any conflict as well. As per the WSJ report, the Trump team has devised a “maximum pressure 2.0” plan against Iran, with the administration now open to taking military actions.
The new plan may include sending more US military personnel to the West Asian region and selling more arms to Israel, including bunker-busting bombs. Earlier on December 12, Trump said that he could go to war with Iran because Tehran plotted to assassinate him. “Anything can happen,” he said.
The IDF is also keen on hitting nuclear targets on Iranian soil. According to Times of Israel, IDF is smelling an opportunity to hit Iran after the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.
One thing is quite clear here: Trump won’t shy away from hitting the bull’s eye in Iran to secure USA’s and Israel’s security interests. The best and the worst thing about Trump is his unpredictability. While Trump has vowed to not start any new war under his watch, he may very well choose escalation with Iran because Tehran has grown weaker now after months of pounding in Gaza, Lebanon and now Syria. But even when Iran was powerful, Trump never shied away from inflicting deep wounds on the regime of Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
The killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by US around five years back in Iraq is one prime example. It marked a major escalation in the region, prompting Iran to fire its ballistic missiles at America’s Al Asad Air Base. But even a strong Iran couldn’t muster the courage to go all-out against US back then. Today, the prospects of a strong Iranian retaliation are even bleaker.
Trump’s plan to strike Iran hard may also receive tacit support from its regional Arab allies, like UAE and Saudi Arabia. Even though ties between Arabs and Iranians have improved over the last years owing to China-brokered peace deal, the formers would never want the Shi’ite nation to have access to nukes. Essentially, on the issue of nuclear weapons, Iran stands isolated in the world. Even powerful allies like Moscow and Beijing too may develop cold feet on the issue owing to bilateral and global treaties.
For Iran, the only way to keep itself up and running is to develop nuclear deterrence within next 50 days. Otherwise, the theocratic regime of Khamenei would be having a real tough time dealing with a bold, maverick Trump.