Trump couldn’t be more precise. On Wednesday, he wrote an explosive message for Russia’s Putin. Obviously, it was about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Trump’s message was clear: I can do you a massive favour but I can also hurt your interests big time. Trump’s explosive message also had an underlying Arctic connection.
Trump wrote about his admiration for Russia in his peace deal proposal message. He wrote, “I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin – and this despite the Radical Left’s Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big favour.”
Trump didn’t reveal what favour he is talking about. But the very next moment, he takes a tougher, threatening approach. “Settle now, and stop this ridiculous war! It’s only going to get worse. If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia”
That’s quite a warning. How would Russia respond to it? Putin understands Trump well and he will now focus on driving Ukraine’s invading forces from the Kursk region and eventually get the peace deal signed. Putin also realises that by working with US and Trump, Russia can unlock the true potential of its Arctic resources.
According to some media reports, Trump may look to grab Russia’s attention by offering lucrative deals over the Arctic. The Arctic is an area Putin cares deeply about, and such a plan might appeal to Trump too, given his focus on making big deals.
Recently, Putin attended a ceremony to launch the new nuclear icebreaker, Chukotka. While it wasn’t widely noticed in the West, it showed Putin’s strong interest in Arctic development. The Chukotka is an impressive ship: it’s 567 feet long, powered by two nuclear reactors, and can break through ice nearly 10 feet thick. Building such a ship is expensive, costing around half a billion dollars.
This ship is part of a larger plan. It’s the fourth nuclear icebreaker of its kind, with another, the Yakutia, almost ready. By the next year, Russia plans to start building even more advanced icebreakers, each costing a billion dollars—an enormous sum for Russia’s economy today.
These icebreakers are crucial for the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shipping route north of Russia that connects Europe to Asia. This year, the NSR saw record achievements, like the largest container ship passing through and the most oil transported. For Russia, the NSR is a major economic lifeline. The Arctic region contributes about 10% of Russia’s GDP and 20% of its exports. Russian analysts aim to increase exports through the NSR to 200 million tons within five years.
Beyond oil and gas, the Arctic holds more importance for Russia’s economy. Many of Russia’s rivers, like the Ob and Lena, flow north into the Arctic. A fully functioning NSR could unlock economic growth in Russia’s vast interior, especially in Siberia. This has been a long-standing goal for Russian leaders, making Arctic development a key part of the country’s future.
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If Trump and Putin manage to find a way to co-operate on Arctic, Moscow will look to revive its Arctic LNG 2 project. This massive natural gas project is part of Russia’s broader goal to become a leading global supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Arctic LNG 2 plant is located along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
If Trump’s administration were to loosen sanctions, Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project would have more room to grow. Without U.S. restrictions, the project could receive more funding, work with more international partners, and export LNG more freely. This would mean more jobs, more exports, and more revenue for Russia. This would be a big win for Russia, as it could increase the country’s economic power and influence in the energy market.
This is how Trump and the US can win Russia’s trust back. And the US can benefit a lot from amicable ties with Russia. It would help policy makers in Washington DC to focus better on the biggest threat- that is China.