Quad at Crossroads: Can it beat China at Its Own Game?

As the Quad attempts to institutionalize itself further in 2025, its future will depend less on rhetorical commitments and more on its ability to reconcile these internal contradictions and deliver concrete, collective outcomes in an increasingly contested region.

Quad at Crossroads (Picture Credit: Reuters)

Quad at Crossroads: Can it beat China at Its Own Game?

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, widely known as the Quad, has emerged as a central pillar in the evolving security and economic architecture of the Indo-Pacific. Comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, the Quad has transitioned from its early days as a response to natural disasters and regional instability to a robust forum addressing a spectrum of strategic, economic, and technological challenges.

The Quad’s Growing Relevance

In 2025, the Quad’s significance is greater than ever. The grouping now represents nearly a quarter of the world’s population, 35% of global GDP, and 18% of global trade. Initially conceived in 2007 to foster cooperation among maritime democracies, the Quad has steadily expanded its agenda. While its early years were marked by joint naval exercises and a focus on maritime security, the Quad today is a platform for dialogue and action on issues ranging from critical technologies and infrastructure to health security and climate change.

The Quad’s enduring vision is to maintain a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, upholding democratic values, the rule of law, and respect for international norms. This mission has become especially urgent as China’s assertiveness continues to reshape the regional balance of power.

The 2025 Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting

On July 1, 2025, the foreign ministers of the Quad convened in Washington, D.C., underscoring the group’s commitment to regular high-level engagement. This meeting, the first for U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, focused on streamlining the Quad’s activities to a handful of key priorities, moving away from the proliferation of sub-working groups that had characterized previous years.

Key outcomes

Maritime Security: Advancing the ‘Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission’ to enhance interoperability and maritime safety.

Critical and Emerging Technologies: Deepening cooperation on resilient semiconductor supply chains and digital infrastructure.

Health Security: Expanding the Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative, targeting cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific.

Climate and Infrastructure: Joint efforts to promote sustainable port development and clean energy solutions.

Space and Science: Supporting open science through space-based monitoring of climate impacts, with India leading new initiatives for regional partners.

Counterterrorism a Core Quad Priority

The Quad reaffirmed its unwavering stance against terrorism in all its forms, including cross-border attacks and violent extremism. The group issued a strong condemnation of the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which tragically claimed the lives of 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen, and left several others injured.

 Expressing deep condolences to the victims’ families and wishing a swift recovery to the injured, the Quad called for those responsible—perpetrators, organizers, and financiers—to be brought to justice without delay.

The statement also underscored the Quad’s commitment to enhanced counterterrorism cooperation and urged all UN member states to fulfill their international obligations by actively supporting efforts to combat terrorism and ensure accountability for such heinous acts.

This meeting set the stage for the 2025 Quad Leaders’ Summit, to be hosted by India, signaling the group’s intent to further institutionalize its role as a force for regional stability and prosperity.

Subtle Shifts: From “Indo-Pacific” to “Asia-Pacific”

A notable diplomatic nuance in 2025 has been the U.S. administration’s gradual shift in terminology from “Indo-Pacific” back to “Asia-Pacific.” While not officially explained, this reflects a recalibration of U.S. strategy under the Trump administration, which is seeking to streamline its regional focus and avoid antagonizing partners wary of overtly confrontational postures toward China. The change also signals an attempt to balance longstanding alliances in East Asia with the growing importance of South and Southeast Asia, without framing the Quad solely as a counter-China bloc.

Divergent Interests and Strategic Calculations Among Quad Members

United States

While the United States continues to champion the Quad as a cornerstone of its regional strategy, its current approach is marked by a notable shift toward economic and technological priorities—such as supply chain security and digital infrastructure—rather than explicit military posturing. This pragmatic recalibration under the Trump administration is not without controversy. The U.S. emphasis on tangible, transactional outcomes risks diluting the Quad’s original vision of upholding shared democratic values and a rules-based order. Furthermore, the U.S. push for partners to increase defense spending and align more closely with its stance on China and Russia has exposed underlying tensions, particularly as domestic politics and shifting rhetoric—from “Indo-Pacific” back to “Asia-Pacific”—signal a less cohesive long-term strategy.

India

India’s hosting of the 2025 Quad Summit is emblematic of its ambition to assert regional leadership and represent the interests of the Global South. However, India’s engagement with the Quad remains cautious and calculated. New Delhi is intent on leveraging the grouping for economic and technological gains, but remains wary of being drawn into overtly anti-China or military alliances that could compromise its strategic autonomy. India’s divergent stance on Russia and Iran, and its preference for a broader, less militarized Quad agenda, often puts it at odds with the U.S. and Australia, highlighting persistent fractures within the grouping. India’s balancing act is further complicated by deep economic interdependence with China and ongoing border disputes, making its Quad participation as much about hedging as about partnership.

Japan

Japan remains one of the most consistent advocates for a robust Quad, viewing it as an essential mechanism to counterbalance Chinese assertiveness and preserve a rules-based regional order. Tokyo’s focus is on economic security, infrastructure connectivity, and technological innovation, which it seeks to advance through Quad initiatives. However, Japan’s ambitions are sometimes constrained by the group’s lack of unified strategic direction and the risk of provoking Beijing. The challenge for Japan lies in aligning its vision for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” with the more cautious or divergent approaches of its partners, particularly India and, increasingly, the United States as it recalibrates its regional rhetoric and commitments.

Australia

Australia’s position within the Quad is shaped by its acute economic vulnerability to China and its desire to hedge against both Chinese coercion and potential U.S. disengagement. Canberra’s renewed enthusiasm for the Quad is as much about binding the U.S. to regional security as it is about diversifying its own strategic partnerships, notably with India. Yet, Australia’s history of wavering commitment—having previously withdrawn from the Quad to avoid antagonizing China—casts a shadow over its reliability as a partner. Ongoing domestic debates reflect deep divisions over whether to accommodate or confront Beijing, and Australia’s efforts to balance economic interests with strategic imperatives remain a source of internal and external friction.

Despite periodic declarations of unity, the Quad remains hamstrung by divergent national priorities, domestic political constraints, and the ever-present risk of provoking China. The lack of a coherent, shared strategic vision exacerbated by disagreements over issues like Russia, Iran, and economic policy—raises questions about the grouping’s long-term effectiveness. As the Quad attempts to institutionalize itself further in 2025, its future will depend less on rhetorical commitments and more on its ability to reconcile these internal contradictions and deliver concrete, collective outcomes in an increasingly contested region.

The Road Ahead

As the Quad marks two decades since its inception, its evolution from a loose dialogue to a strategic partnership underscores its adaptability in a rapidly changing region. While the group is not a formal military alliance, its growing agenda and high-level engagement make it a key player in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific—now, perhaps, the “Asia-Pacific”—order.

With shifting priorities, nuanced diplomacy, and a sharpened focus on practical cooperation, the Quad is poised to remain at the forefront of regional strategy, balancing great power competition with a shared commitment to prosperity, security, and democratic values.

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