On July 17, 2025, Russia’s declaration to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) that U.S. and European commercial satellites, particularly those aiding Ukraine, are “legitimate targets” for military action.
This alarming statement, coupled with Russia’s ongoing development of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, has raised alarms about the potential for conflict to extend into space, a domain increasingly critical to modern warfare and global infrastructure.
Russia’s Stance on Western Satellites
Russia’s declaration marks a significant escalation in its space policy, building on warnings issued since the onset of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Konstantin Vorontsov, a senior Russian Foreign Ministry official, first labeled commercial satellites as “quasi-civilian infrastructure” and potential targets in October 2022, arguing that their use in supporting Ukraine constitutes “indirect participation in military conflicts.”
More recently, Russia informed the ITU that navigation systems like GPS and Galileo, as well as commercial constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlink and Eutelsat’s OneWeb, could face interference or destruction if they continue to assist Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s justification centers on the dual-use nature of these satellites, which provide critical communication, navigation, and imagery services to Ukrainian forces. For instance, Starlink has been pivotal in maintaining battlefield communications, enabling secure messaging and drone operations, while companies like Maxar and Planet provide high-resolution imagery to track Russian troop movements.
Russia views this support as a violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty’s principle of peaceful use, though international law permits targeting infrastructure directly contributing to military efforts during armed conflicts.
Russia’s Anti-Satellite Capabilities
Russia’s threats are backed by a robust arsenal of counterspace weapons, signaling its intent to challenge Western dominance in space. Since 2021, Russia has demonstrated its ASAT capabilities, including a direct-ascent missile test that destroyed a defunct Soviet-era satellite, creating a debris field that endangered the International Space Station (ISS).
The Nudol ASAT missile, potentially nuclear-armed, is designed to target satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), where most commercial and military assets reside.
Additionally, Russia has deployed “inspector” satellites, such as Cosmos 2576, launched in May 2024, which the Pentagon believes is a counterspace weapon capable of stalking and attacking U.S. satellites like the Keyhole-class USA 314.
These co-orbital weapons can maneuver to approach targets, potentially for espionage or kinetic strikes. Reports of Cosmos 2553, suspected to be part of a nuclear ASAT program, spinning uncontrollably in 2025 suggest technical challenges, but Russia’s overall capabilities remain formidable.
Russia’s jamming of GPS signals over the Baltic Sea, traced to facilities in Kaliningrad, has disrupted civilian aviation and satellite TV broadcasts, prompting complaints from France, Sweden, and others to the ITU in 2023. These actions highlight Russia’s willingness to use non-kinetic methods, such as cyberattacks and signal interference, alongside potential physical attacks to neutralize Western space assets.
The Role of Commercial Satellites in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict has been described as the “first commercial space war,” with private companies playing a pivotal role. SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, with nearly 7,000 satellites, has provided Ukrainian forces with resilient communication networks, enabling artillery coordination and secure battlefield messaging.
Maxar, Planet, and BlackSky have supplied high-resolution imagery, offering near-real-time intelligence on Russian movements, which has been crucial for Ukraine’s defense strategy.
These commercial systems have filled gaps left by Ukraine’s lack of national space capabilities, demonstrating the growing importance of private sector involvement in modern warfare.
However, their military applications have made them prime targets for Russia, which argues that their use blurs the line between civilian and military infrastructure, justifying retaliatory strikes under international humanitarian law.
Implications of a Space War
A conflict in space would have catastrophic consequences for global infrastructure. Satellites underpin critical services, including GPS navigation, financial transactions, internet connectivity, and military command and control.
A nuclear ASAT detonation, as speculated with Russia’s Cosmos 2553 program, could generate an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and debris field, rendering large swaths of LEO unusable for years and endangering astronauts, as warned by the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Even non-kinetic attacks, such as jamming or cyberattacks, could disrupt civilian life. For example, Russia’s 2023 jamming of European satellite networks affected civilian aviation safety and broadcast media, highlighting the broader societal impact. The Kessler Syndrome, where debris from destroyed satellites triggers a cascade of collisions, could exacerbate the damage, making space inaccessible for all nations.
Militarily, the U.S. and its allies are heavily dependent on space assets, unlike Russia, whose GLONASS system is unreliable and whose forces have resorted to using illicit Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
This asymmetry gives Russia an incentive to disrupt Western satellites, as it has less to lose from a degraded space environment. However, targeting U.S. or NATO satellites could be seen as an act of war, potentially escalating the Ukraine conflict into a broader confrontation.
International and U.S. Response
The U.S. has condemned Russia’s threats, with the White House stating in 2022 that any attack on U.S. infrastructure would prompt a response “in a time and manner of our choosing.”
The Pentagon is enhancing the resilience of its space systems by shifting to constellations of smaller, cheaper satellites, reducing the impact of single-point failures. The U.S. Space Force and Space Command are also developing frameworks to protect commercial assets, though the legal and operational details remain unclear.
At the United Nations, the U.S. has pushed for adherence to the Outer Space Treaty, which bans nuclear weapons in space, but Russia vetoed a 2024 resolution reaffirming this commitment, raising suspicions about its nuclear ASAT ambitions.
Allies like France and Sweden have urged Russia to cease jamming activities, while NATO has emphasized the need to safeguard space as a critical domain.
Broader Geopolitical Context
Russia’s threats come amid heightened tensions with the West, exacerbated by its withdrawal from Cold War-era security agreements, such as the 1996 military pact with Germany. The Kremlin’s space rhetoric aligns with its broader strategy to counter NATO’s support for Ukraine and challenge U.S. dominance.
However, Russia’s space program faces challenges, including financial constraints and reliance on outdated Soviet-era technology, limiting its ability to compete with the U.S. and China in areas like reusable rockets or mega constellations.
The involvement of commercial players like SpaceX complicates the dynamics. Elon Musk’s decision to fund Starlink in Ukraine, despite initial reluctance to support offensive operations, has drawn Russia’s ire, with Musk himself acknowledging the risk of escalation if Starlink were used to target Russian forces directly. This blurring of commercial and military roles underscores the need for clearer international norms on space activities during conflicts.
