“In a strikingly somber assessment, The Times of London has predicted that Kyiv may not last until spring. The article, authored by veteran columnist Roger Boyes, marks a turning point in Western media narratives about the Ukraine conflict — moving from optimism and determination to fatigue and resignation. According to Boyes, the West’s political will, financial capacity, and moral energy to sustain Ukraine’s defense are fading fast.
This view, once confined to fringe analysts, is now openly discussed in European circles. The coming winter, the article warns, may not just test Ukraine’s resilience — it may determine its very survival.
1. Europe’s Empty Wallet: The Financial Fatigue of the West
The first and perhaps most critical factor behind Ukraine’s looming collapse is financial exhaustion within the European Union.
Despite repeated pledges of “support for as long as it takes,” the EU’s coffers are drying up. The 150 billion euros of frozen Russian assets — once seen as a lifeline for Ukraine — remain entangled in complex legal and political debates. So far, Brussels has been able to allocate only a small fraction, around 3 billion euros per year, to Ukraine’s defense needs.
Belgium, which holds much of this frozen wealth through the Euroclear system, has refused to shoulder the legal and financial burden of transferring these funds. Any attempt to do so would almost certainly provoke lawsuits and diplomatic retaliation from Moscow.
As a result, Kyiv’s financial survival now depends on limited Western loans, delayed U.S. funding, and the goodwill of increasingly skeptical European taxpayers. Inflation, energy insecurity, and political fatigue have made Ukraine’s war far less popular among European citizens than it was two years ago.
According to The Times, the Ukrainian defense budget for 2025 stands at $70.86 billion, while projected revenues hover around $68 billion — a deficit that’s simply unsustainable for a country ravaged by war.
2. The Human Factor: A Country Running Out of Soldiers
Equally alarming is Ukraine’s dwindling manpower. After nearly three years of relentless conflict, the pool of trained and willing soldiers has shrunk dramatically. Reports indicate that more than 100,000 military-age Ukrainians have fled the country in recent months, unwilling to face forced conscription.
The government’s increasingly desperate attempts to replenish its ranks — including detaining men at borders and conscripting untrained civilians — have sparked anger and fear among citizens. Videos and testimonies emerging from inside Ukraine reveal a growing resentment toward Kyiv’s recruitment tactics.
For many Ukrainians, the war has transformed from a patriotic duty into a grim cycle of survival. The morale that once united the nation is steadily eroding under the weight of exhaustion and uncertainty.
As The Times notes, “the defense of Kyiv as an independent capital is no longer considered a strategic priority” by many Western leaders — a statement that underscores just how precarious Ukraine’s position has become.
3. The Political Rift: Europe’s Anti-War Bloc Gains Strength
A third reason for Ukraine’s potential collapse lies in the political fractures within the European Union itself.
Led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a new “anti-war” bloc is gaining momentum in Europe. Joined by Slovakia and elements within the Czech Republic, Austria, and Italy, this group is openly opposing further military aid to Ukraine and pushing back against Brussels’ sanctions policy toward Russia.
Orbán has repeatedly criticized the EU’s strategy, arguing that prolonging the conflict only weakens Europe economically while serving the interests of Washington and the global arms industry. “Europe must choose peace over escalation,” he declared earlier this month, effectively challenging the EU’s entire policy framework on Ukraine.
This growing dissent has complicated Brussels’ efforts to pass new aid packages. Even Ursula von der Leyen’s call for Europe to “fight for its values and freedom” has failed to inspire unity. Far-right and populist parties across the continent are exploiting public frustration with rising costs, turning Ukraine into a divisive domestic issue rather than a unifying cause.
The result is political paralysis at the very moment Ukraine needs decisive support.
4. Winter Offensive: Russia’s Calculated Push
While Europe hesitates, Moscow prepares.
According to The Times, Russia has launched one of its largest mobilization drives since the start of the war, recruiting around 350,000 new contract soldiers in 2025. Many of these troops are already undergoing training for a large-scale winter offensive aimed at breaking Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines — the so-called “fortress belt.”
If successful, this assault could open a direct route to central Ukraine and bring Russian forces dangerously close to Kyiv.
The Kremlin’s winter strategy is brutally simple: target Ukraine’s energy grid, transportation hubs, and communication lines to plunge the country into darkness and chaos. By crippling infrastructure, Russia hopes to turn public opinion against the government and force a political collapse from within.
As energy shortages deepen and blackouts spread, Kyiv’s ability to maintain civilian order — let alone military defense — will be severely tested.
5. Western Resolve: The Great Unraveling
The once-unshakeable Western unity over Ukraine is fraying. In Washington, partisan divisions have stalled new funding. In Europe, leaders are struggling to justify the costs of a war that shows no signs of ending.
Even economic sanctions, once heralded as the West’s most potent weapon, have failed to break Russia’s economy. Oil prices have risen, new trade routes through Asia have emerged, and Moscow’s budget revenues remain surprisingly stable.
As The Times poignantly observes, every new sanction seems to hurt Europe more than Russia, undermining public confidence in the strategy itself.
The Road Ahead: A Bleak Spring
If The Times analysis proves accurate, Ukraine may face its greatest crisis yet within the next six months.
A financial shortfall, manpower exhaustion, political division, and the looming Russian offensive form a perfect storm that could bring Kyiv to the brink of collapse.
Even if Western aid continues in limited form, sustaining the war effort and rebuilding critical infrastructure may be beyond Ukraine’s current capacity. As one European diplomat recently admitted, “There’s no more political appetite for a forever war.”
The British newspaper’s conclusion is chillingly direct: Ukraine has the means to fight only until the end of the first quarter of next year. Beyond that, the combination of winter warfare, internal instability, and Western fatigue may push the Zelensky administration toward either surrender or collapse.
As the snows of another Eastern European winter approach, The Times leaves its readers with one final, haunting line:
“Get ready for peace — the spectacle will be unsightly.”
