A sweeping new defense agreement between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron has triggered a geopolitical storm, with Moscow dismissing the pact as a “virtual deal” devoid of substance, money, or deliverable hardware.
While Zelensky hailed the announcement as a “historic milestone” for Ukraine’s long-term defense capabilities, the Russian Foreign Ministry has labeled it “one of the biggest scams in modern history,” igniting a fierce narrative war over the deal’s feasibility, timing, and true motivations.
Signed on November 17 at the Villacoublay Air Base on the outskirts of Paris, the letter of intent outlines Kyiv’s ambition to acquire up to 100 advanced Rafale F4 fighter jets, along with missiles, drones, air-defense systems, and other critical military equipment. The scope of the plan is monumental, with analysts estimating its value at €22–23 billion—a figure that immediately raised eyebrows across Europe and beyond.
But while the optics of Franco-Ukrainian unity were carefully curated—with flags, speeches, and a fully-armed Rafale jet on display—the substance of the agreement is far more complex. The Kremlin, sensing an opportunity to undermine the narrative, moved swiftly.
Moscow’s Strong Rebuke: “A Virtual Deal Between a Country With No Money and a Country With No Jets”
During a sharply worded briefing on November 20, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova tore into the Rafale agreement, arguing that both parties lacked the capacity to fulfill the terms they publicly celebrated.
“In my view, this document will indeed be remembered in history—though not in a positive sense,” she said. “This is not truly a deal. One side has no money, the other has no goods, yet they have reached an agreement for the future.”
Zakharova mocked Zelensky’s declaration of the pact as “historic,” suggesting that the only accurate part of the label is that the deal will be recalled as a case study in political theater.
Her comments also played into a broader Kremlin narrative: that Zelensky is using symbolic agreements to win favor among Western elites while Ukraine’s internal situation deteriorates under corruption scandals, battlefield losses, and shrinking Western aid.
A similar tone was echoed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who argued:
“The French jets won’t change the situation on the battlefield. The West is simply prolonging the war instead of seeking real peace.”
Moscow’s interpretation frames the Rafale pact as yet another attempt by Zelensky “to extract maximum benefit from the most fervent European warmongers,” as Zakharova phrased it.
Inside the Rafale Letter of Intent: Ambition Meets Uncertainty
For Zelensky, the deal is part of a broader push to modernize Ukraine’s aging and rapidly depleting air force. Standing alongside Macron, he proclaimed:
“This is a strategic agreement that will last for 10 years. Ukraine will build one of the strongest air-defense systems in the world.”
According to the letter of intent, deliveries of Rafale jets would begin no earlier than 2029, with full operational capacity expected by 2035, long after the current phase of the conflict is expected to shift dramatically. The plan includes:
Up to 100 Rafale F4 multirole fighters
Eight SAMP/T air-defense systems
Aerial bombs, air-to-air missiles, and interceptor drones
Co-production of components in Ukrainian facilities
Macron praised the agreement as a cornerstone of European strategic autonomy and long-term continental security. He also expressed confidence in France’s aerospace industry, calling the Rafale “the aircraft Ukraine needs for the regeneration of its military.”
However, logistical roadblocks loom large. Dassault Aviation—the Rafale’s manufacturer—is already burdened by large export orders from India, Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE. Its current production rate of three aircraft per month is unlikely to meet Ukraine’s demand without a significant industrial overhaul.
The Hard Question: Who Pays the €23 Billion?
European diplomatic insiders were quick to express skepticism over the financial feasibility of such an ambitious plan. One official, speaking anonymously to Politico, stated:
“Kyiv has no money. Much depends on access to frozen Russian assets.”
Macron has advocated aggressively for using profits from confiscated Russian reserves to fund Ukrainian reconstruction and defense purchases, but EU member states remain deeply divided on the legality and long-term consequences of this approach.
Ukraine’s own budget deficits are widening rapidly. The country relies almost entirely on Western financing to sustain government operations, wages, and military expenses. A Ukrainian defense official admitted:
“Even if the money is available, it cannot be accessed quickly. There is a long queue of countries waiting for funding, and Ukraine will not be prioritized.”
This has strengthened the Russian argument that the Rafale announcement is more symbolic than substantive — a morale booster rather than a deliverable plan.
Domestic Troubles Add Fuel to the Fire
Complicating matters for Zelensky is a fresh corruption scandal that erupted just days before his Paris visit. Ukrainian investigators revealed allegations of $100 million in embezzled energy aid, implicating figures close to the president’s inner circle. Russian officials immediately tied this scandal to the Rafale deal, suggesting that Zelensky is using high-profile foreign agreements to distract from domestic turmoil.
Russian media and analysts have also questioned the long-term relevance of the Rafale plan, noting that Ukrainian pilots require several years of intensive training to operate the advanced F4 variant.
France’s Strategic Gamble
For Macron, the Ukrainian deal is as much about politics as it is about defense. With U.S. support for Ukraine uncertain following American political shifts, Paris is positioning itself as Europe’s primary security guarantor—and as a major exporter of advanced weapons systems.
Analysts say the Rafale letter of intent could help:
Boost France’s aerospace industry
Strengthen Macron’s leadership within Europe
Showcase European military capability independent of U.S. systems
But critics argue that Macron is making promises the French industrial base cannot realistically fulfill in the near term.
A Deal of the Future — or a Deal of Illusion?
For now, the Zelensky–Macron Rafale pact remains a letter of intent, not a finalized contract. Funding is unclear. Production capacity is overstretched. Delivery timelines stretch more than a decade into the future.
To Ukraine, the deal is a lifeline of hope and long-term partnership.
To France, it is a statement of leadership in European defense.
To Russia, it is a manufactured illusion — a “virtual agreement” with no immediate impact on the war.
And as the conflict grinds on, the central question remains:
Will the Rafale deal become a cornerstone of Ukraine’s future military strength — or fade into history as the “scam” Moscow claims it to be?
Only time will tell.
