Nawaz Sharif could be back as the PM. Army could get its powers curtailed. And Imran could be a sacrificial lamb

The recent powerplay between the Pakistani army against the Provincial Sindh police and the opposition party leaders was a testament to the fact that General Qamar Javed Bajwa had finally wilted under the increasing pressure from all corners. While PM Imran Khan being targeted by the coalition of 11 opposition parties was no news, it was the constant reminder by the opposition parties that it was the military establishment of the country that had installed a puppet PM, which surprised many.

With the military being put under the microscope by the Pakistani public, General Bajwa might be looking to chop and change things and it seems as if Nawaz Sharif, who is spearheading the opposition alliance from outside, might just swoop in for another shot at the top democratic position of the country.

Nawaz Sharif—Challenging both political and military establishments

The father-daughter duo of Nawaz and Maryam Sharif, working in tandem with the opposition parties have launched a scathing attack on not just the Imran Khan puppet government in Islamabad, but also, to the surprise of many, an unflinching offensive against the Islamic country’s all-pervasive military establishment, which rules over all aspects of the life of an average Pakistani.

Over the years, the role of the Pakistani military in usurping power by picking and choosing the PMs has been swept under the rug, however, the tide seems to be changing now as political parties are getting more and more vociferous about the role of the Army in the daily day-to-day life of Pakistan. The opposition leaders are targeting the fragile state machinery and calling the army to vacate all tehsils, districts, towns, and divisions and consequently stop interfering in civilian matters of the governments and police.

Sharif himself has started exposing some of his country’s dirtiest secrets. Sharif, who was the prime minister during the Kargil war, has long maintained that he was not aware of what was happening when the conflict broke out in 1999. He says the then army chief General Pervez Musharraf had attacked Kargil without informing him. Thereby suggesting how he had been pushed to the back by the unholy nexus of Pakistan Army and ISI over the course of his tenure.

The face of the democratic consensus of Pakistan

Having been elected thrice, and removed from office thrice, Nawaz Sharif has seen and understood how Pakistan’s military influences politics. Sharif was overthrown in a military coup once (in 1999), but on the other two occasions, he was removed from office through ostensibly invisible machinations within constitutional processes.

Instead of playing along with the pretence that the responsibility for his ouster lay with a civilian president in 1993 or a Supreme Court panel in 2017, Sharif is now giving a blow by blow account of differences with the generals that led to his ouster.

Out of all the current leaders in the opposition or even in power, Nawaz Sharif is the biggest face of a civilian government, who more often than not tried to do good by his people. Sharif has the image of being a pro-democracy leader and his repeated removal from office by the Army and their cohorts further cements the fact that Sharif is indeed fighting against the military establishment and not just looking to make some insipid comeback.

Imran Khan—The sacrificial lamb

It is a fact hidden from no one that it is General Bajwa that pulls the real strings of PM Imran Khan and whatever the PPP leader does or say is carefully orchestrated after Bajwa’s approval.

Going against the 11 opposition parties that have joined hands together could prove a political suicide even for the Pakistani General and he seems to have understood the fact. The Civil-war like situation that erupted in Sindh, earlier this week, could only be doused after Bajwa gave assurances to the Sindh Police department that an inquiry into the abduction of Sindh police chief and the subsequent arrest of Safdar had been called.

If the current opposition campaign maintains its momentum and the popular sentiment continues to go against the former cricketer, then the army might have to withdraw support from Imran Khan.

No army general wants to be in the spotlight for long but somehow Bajwa has not been able to slip past it and, therefore, if the push comes to shove, he might make the sacrificial moves and Imran Khan might just be the right lamb for it.

However, if Nawaz Sharif does come back to power then it would also mean that the GHQ  will have to yield a major chunk of its power. Nawaz Sharif  2.0 is looking to clean the slate and wants absolutely no role of General Bajwa in the state of affairs. Meanwhile, it is a catch-22 situation for the General as keeping up with Imran Khan will continue to bring the heat on the military establishment and if he goes the other way, then he will have to sit out of power.

Sharif is currently indicted in lengthy court proceedings, courtesy Imran Khan’s vendetta politics, but it looks like the former premier has found a renewed strength at the fag end of his career to take on political as well as the military establishment of the country. A political reset is in the offing in Pakistan and it is coming sooner than one would like to think.