China has for the longest span of 2020 done what it wanted to do, and in the process, its real face is out in the open. And as things are becoming clear, France finds its interests and assets in the Indo-Pacific at risk of being swallowed by the ever-increasing hunger of the Chinese Communist Party. The quad was already coordinating policy and active working strategy to contain Beijing but with an active entry of France into the geopolitics of Indo-Pacific, the calculations stand entirely changed, and now China is under great stress as it finds no possible way to counter this overpowered offensive. France has combined talks, trade and military ties to knit an offensive that can any day take on the Chinese arrogance.
France was the early adopter of the concept of Indo-Pacific, as it recognised the region and started strategizing in May 2018. Once considered a European and NATO power, which remained less interested in the affairs of Indo-Pacific, has now reinvigorated its efforts to engage in the geopolitics of the region. The country is a party to multiple minilaterals in the region and has deep strategic partners there too, be it, India, Japan, and Australia among others. Recently, France has also obliged the request of the Indonesians for purchase of Rafale Jets, and recent reports tell that they are really close to finalising the deal.
France has also gone ahead with the planned naval exercise with the USA and Japan in May next year, and this may be the single biggest signal to gauge the intent of France. The three powers – Japan, U.S. and France are slated to conduct joint military drills in the East China Sea for the first time in May next year. The drills, which are to be conducted on one of Japan’s uninhabited outlying islands, will focus on providing relief during a natural disaster, although it has been reported by the Japanese daily Sankei that the same could also form the basis for a defence against a Chinese attack and anyone with some knowledge would pick the latter as the reasoning behind.
France needed to step in as Beijing has been trying to wrest New Caledonia from France by throwing in hordes of money into the small archipelago. France extends an aid of US$1.5 billion to the former penal colony on an annual basis, but China is trying to make the small nation dependent on China as its export market and thus, wrest its control. In 2018, New Caledonia’s exports to China totalled US$1.06 billion, which is nearing the French assistance rapidly.
France was able to retain New Caledonia after the 2018 and 2020 referendums, but the 2022 referendum will be the biggest battle for influence. If New Caledonia goes for a third referendum in 2022, the Chinese will be much more effective to change the narrative in the country.
Read more: New Caledonia could very well mark the beginning of QUAD plus France alliance against China
Such things are looming large in the foreign policy circles of France. And given how China is not relenting its aggressive posturing, France could not take things as they were previously. Now France is upping the ante against the Chinese misadventures, be it with India, the USA, Australia, Japan, and Indonesia among other countries. Paris seems to be all invested in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific and it has totally changed the calculations among the players in the region.
