Post-Cold War Europe has been disrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which started in February 2022, and the 30-year-old relationship between the EU and Russia has been entirely rewritten. Interdependence in both energy and the economy served as the cornerstones of such a relationship for three decades.
The war demonstrated the necessity for new short-, medium-, and long-term plans for the EU to engage with Russia in a fundamentally changed security environment, in order to alter Russia itself and affect its capacity to operate in the neighborhood. Such a policy shift was probably inevitable: a key reason for the Ukraine war was Russia’s perception of geopolitical competition in its shared neighborhood with the EU. The Russian leadership was not willing to lose what it feels to be Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, including de facto control of Ukraine.
Franco-German failure
In retrospect, however, it is clear that the EU as a whole did not act to curb the Kremlin’s escalating aggression. The EU’s self-declared leaders, Germany and France, bear a special burden for weakening the Union. All EU nations must think deeply over their past sins, but Berlin and Paris in particular must do so if they are to ever once again be regarded as the de facto leaders of Europe.
The Union’s actions – and inaction – guided by Germany and France, have endangered the future of the entire European continent. The level of incompetence, short-sightedness, greed, and corruption that has driven them, and other EU member states, is flabbergasting.
Read More: Germany and France in a War within a War against Russia
For years, the Baltic states, Poland, and others have sounded the alarm bell about France and Germany’s undue influence over Brussels, which eventually eclipsed other countries’ ambitions as well as interests within the bloc. East European countries in particular have received very step-brotherly treatment from Brussels, despite these countries having expertise in dealing with Russia, given their territorial and cultural proximity.
But the Franco-German dominance of the EU, disregarded people who knew better, individuals who had spent more than 40 years in the same room as the Russians as members of the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact. The views of those who recognized the goals of the Russian elite and how to deal with them, whether through the EU’s foreign policy or the transition to renewable energy, were ignored by the French and the Germans.
Power shift within the EU
A new configuration of forces emerged as a result, drastically altering the internal dynamics of the EU. Formerly, the Franco-German drive was sufficient to move things along in Brussels. The Central and Eastern Europeans are in their era right now.
It has been frequently overlooked that Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states were among the actors who had a strong understanding of the situation prior to February 2022. With regard to the 2008 Georgian War and the 2014 invasion of Crimea, nations like Estonia, Poland, and Slovakia were among the loudest critics. It took several more years and another war for the rest of lethargic Europe to recognize the might of the Russian Bear.
Read More: Nord stream Takedown: A Tale of Grudges and Revenge
The energy industry experienced the same lethargy. Lithuania was already working towards energy independence as Germany advanced the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The tiny Baltic nation had firsthand knowledge of the potential energy war and the Kremlin’s power to push the European continent into an energy crisis.
After Moscow attempted to use gas prices to keep Lithuania in check, based on its dependence, the country ordered the construction of a floating LNG terminal. This terminal allowed Lithuania to diversify its energy imports, consequently forcing Gazprom to swiftly drop prices by a fifth. Poland, another country suspicious of Russian intention, was also among the strongest advocates against the new Nord Stream pipeline.
Russians have long viewed Europe as being politically weakened, divided, and unable to come to an agreement on any bold measures, acts, or penalties that would also be economically detrimental to Europeans. The timing of the geopolitical conflict, according to Russian calculations, was perfect. The assessment was predicated on the post-Merkel environment, which features a frail Franco-German engine, a new German chancellor, a US president who favors diplomacy over confrontation, and a wounded British population still reeling from Brexit’s effects.
The decisive leadership of the otherwise dispersed Central and Eastern Europeans was something the Russians did not anticipate. CEE countries have probably been deliberately influencing the response of the EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has been highlighted in a number of areas, for the first time in the history of a unified Europe.
Read More: The secret European ally behind ‘US’ Nord Stream Sabotage’ – finally unveiled!
New Europe, under the leadership of Poland, has been at the forefront of efforts to push for sending Patriot air defense systems and main battle tanks to Ukraine. Similarly, Slovakia has donated air defense systems, self-propelled artillery pieces, and Soviet-era tanks to help Kyiv’s war effort. Central European nations took a geopolitical gamble, receiving diplomatic praise and eventual support from NATO allies. These acts contributed to the breaking of conventional taboos, with France, Germany, and the rest of “Old Europe” joining afterward.
It seems likely that Central and Eastern European nations will become the best-armed nations in Europe as a result of their huge increases in defense spending. Poland, for instance, said that it will allocate 4% of its annual gross domestic product to defense. Economic activity might shift to the East as a result of the probable restoration of Ukraine, which would benefit from a competent, inexpensive labor force.
Read More: Poland dumps EU to become a ‘Vassal State’
The fact that Biden, recently visited the Bucharest 9 nations starting with Poland, skipping France, Germany, and other west European nations shows, the rising importance of Eastern Europe. We must acknowledge that CEE countries have a very real chance to increase their influence within the bloc when it comes to setting the foreign policy agenda for the continent. They are suitable candidates to guide the European discourse with international partners because they do not carry any baggage from colonial rule.
