Ukraine’s push for EU membership has been a saga of hope met with barriers, one of those hurdles being Hungary’s persistent resistance. The ongoing tussle between Ukraine’s aspirations and Hungary’s opposition has created a persistent obstacle in Ukraine’s path toward European integration. The question looms: Why does Hungary continue to stand as a stumbling block in Ukraine’s journey towards EU membership? Well, that’s a story for some other day but the EU members have now initiated steps to address this deadlock imposed by Hungary. They’ve opted for the most peculiar solution and that is to ask Viktor Orban to grab a cup of coffee when they sit for Ukraine’s EU accession discussion.
In Thursday’s leaders summit discussions regarding Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU, deadlock ensued among EU leaders. About three hours into deadlocked discussions among them, the German chancellor proposed to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán: Grab a coffee outside the room, perhaps.
The idea, Scholz said, would allow the 26 EU leaders who remained to approve Ukraine’s road to accession with the required unanimity — which EU rules say is also fulfilled if one leader is absent — while Orbán could still say he hadn’t voted in favor.
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This unconventional move by Scholz aimed to facilitate the approval process while accommodating Orbán’s opposition. Following their sideline conversation, Orbán exited the room, leading to the EU’s significant decision to commence accession negotiations with Ukraine, a decision previously stalled due to Orbán’s strong opposition. Scholz’s strategy, revealed by sources familiar with the events, drew attention and discussion in Brussels and beyond. It also raised considerations about Scholz’s negotiating approach, which has faced criticism for its perceived lack of tact compared to his predecessor, Angela Merkel.
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Now, what raises concerns is the fact that all this was scripted. As French President Emmanuel Macron himself says Orbán’s walkout was planned. The coffee break that saved Ukraine’s EU accession bid had been planned all along.
Speaking to reporters after a summit where European leaders successfully bypassed Viktor Orbán’s resistance to Ukraine’s membership of the bloc, French President Emmanuel Macron said the idea behind the Hungarian prime minister’s dramatic exit from the leaders’ room was a collective effort.
In the run-up to the summit, European leaders coordinated a multi-pronged diplomatic effort to get Orbán to back down on his veto threat. According to several EU diplomats, Macron was coaxed into agreeing to leading the charm offensive on Orbán by his fellow leaders. He met Orbán for a private dinner in Paris last week and then on Thursday Orbán was treated to a breakfast with several EU leaders including Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and a separate reported bilateral with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Now, although this entire charade was orchestrated by EU leaders to deceive Hungarian PM Viktor Orban but does this maneuver hold any promise? Can it serve their ultimate goal of Ukraine’s EU accession in any way? To answer that let’s have a look at EU’s rules.
The Treaty on European Union (TEU), Article 49 outlines the accession process for new members, stating that any European state “which respects the values common to all Member States” can apply for membership.
Now, as per EU rules, membership negotiations cannot start until all EU governments agree, in the form of a unanimous decision by the EU Council.
The mandate underlines that the Council has to vote unanimously on a number of matters which the member states consider to be sensitive, for example: common foreign and security policy, citizenship, EU membership et al.
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It even says that under unanimous voting, abstention does not prevent a decision from being taken. Yet, in this instance, Hungary’s absence from the discussions and the voting might seem like Ukraine received a free pass, as if the EU members pulled off a successful scheme. However, Hungary neither abstained nor was absent. Instead, it was compelled to leave the voting process, rendering its departure insignificant. Hungary is poised to return, potentially wielding its veto power to block the decision entirely. Should the EU proceed with Ukraine’s accession talks without Hungary’s input, it’s probable that Hungary might exit the bloc. It becomes illogical for a country to remain part of a union when it holds no sway over its decisions.
Hungary anyway has long harbored skepticism regarding its commitment to the European bloc. Orbán’s government has frequently expressed Euroscepticism, criticizing EU policies and excessive bureaucracy. Even the term “Huxit” has gained traction in certain Hungarian circles, propelled by Orbán’s ambiguous remarks about potentially holding a referendum on EU membership. While the EU members orchestrated a charm offensive, attempting to sway Orbán, it’s doubtful they’ve completely deceived him. They might believe they’ve outsmarted Orbán and can proceed with their ultimate decision. However, if this happens, and a significant EU decision is made while a country’s leader was sidelined during a meeting, it could sow dissatisfaction among other EU members in the longer term.
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