In the political heart of Toronto, a battleground brews: Toronto-St. Paul’s, long a Liberal sanctuary, now simmers with a whispered rebellion. Can Jagmeet Singh’s NDP really mount a challenge against Trudeau’s once-unassailable throne?
The Toronto-St. Paul’s riding has been a reliable Liberal stronghold for over 30 years, typically seeing the Conservatives in second place and the NDP trailing behind. However, attention is now turning to the New Democrat vote in an upcoming by-election following Carolyn Bennett’s retirement.
This electoral race could serve as a critical barometer for the future trajectory of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. It might even hint at a potential shift where the New Democrats could surpass the Liberals as the primary progressive force.
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Although this may seem improbable, remember the unexpected rise of the NDP under Jack Layton in 2011. The current ideological proximity between the two parties is unprecedented, raising the prospect of a left-wing union should the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, seize government in the next election.
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With the Liberal support dwindling to 26 percent and the NDP standing at 20 percent in recent polls by 338Canada.com, the proximity between the two parties in popularity is becoming increasingly apparent. A hypothetical election held tomorrow might project the NDP overtaking the Liberals as voters lean towards sidelining Mr. Trudeau.
One advantage Layton held over Singh was his ability to rally support in Quebec, something the current NDP leader hasn’t achieved. Mr. Layton was able to galvanize support in Quebec. The New Democrats under Mr. Singh have made no inroads, and there are no signs they will.
But Mr. Singh has one advantage Jack Layton didn’t have. Under their supply-and-confidence agreement, in which the NDP keeps the Liberals in power in exchange for concessions, Mr. Singh has pushed the Liberals to enact the most socially progressive programs in generations. A national dental care program. A national pharmacare program. Federal support for long-term care. Some of this agenda is already rolling out now; some will arrive in 2024. The cost to the public sector is eye-watering: more than $4-billion annually for dental care and up to $13.4-billion a year for pharmacare.
For progressive voters, recognizing the NDP’s role in steering these reforms could sway their support. The question looms: if the Liberals aren’t substantially more popular than the NDP, why not vote for the party that drove these policy advancements?
This stands as a crossroads for the NDP. While minority-supporting parties historically suffer electoral setbacks, Singh’s NDP has shaped significant reforms through their alliance with the Liberals. Despite potential risks, the NDP’s pivotal role in policymaking under a struggling Trudeau administration might alter the progressive voting landscape.
The Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election serves as an early indication. Having wrested the riding from Liberals provincially in 2018 and held it in 2022, a rise in NDP votes and a fall in Liberal support could signal the potential for the NDP to claim more downtown seats in the next election.
Beyond Toronto-St. Paul’s, the Liberal Party faces extinction in the west, while the NDP forms the Official Opposition in Ontario and holds a strong presence in Quebec. The Liberals’ influence in Atlantic Canada is confined to Newfoundland and Labrador, underscoring their waning dominance.
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Clearly, the NDP is growing in importance and the Liberals’ dominance is wavering, especially considering their declining support and the NDP’s significant role in shaping progressive policies within the current government.
Can Singh’s NDP truly challenge Trudeau’s once-impregnable fortress? With the curtains drawn for a looming by-election, ambition collides, threatening to rewrite Canada’s progressive narrative.
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