The periphery waters surrounding a nation’s borders hold secrets far beyond their shimmering surface. Similarly, for China, the South China Sea isn’t just a stretch of azure expanse—it’s a clandestine labyrinth of economic supremacy and territorial desire. But, China’s relentless quest for dominance is now facing an unexpected obstacle- the Philippines. An enigmatic adversary challenging the dragon’s aspirations.
The South China Sea has now become a battleground. A battleground where China cannot win.
Ongoing developments in the South China Sea signify a square off going on between Philippines and China.
We know Manila’s geography is such that it can make or break China’s access to the maritime transport corridors its export-oriented economy depends upon. And the Philippines has now forged an alliance with the US which is now giving China shivers down its spine.
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If we head back to Duterte’s tenure, Philippine-US relations weren’t exactly warm, but when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assumed office, the narrative took a sharp turn. The shift in status quo arrived in 2022 with Marcos Jr.’s presidency, marked by a notably pro-U.S. foreign policy. This shift was epitomized by an agreement permitting Washington to establish military bases in the country. The recent accord mirrors Australia’s pact with Papua New Guinea, both strong U.S. allies. With these developments, China perceives a potential barrier extending from the Aleutian Islands to Japan to Australia, seemingly constructed to contain its expansion. This ‘wall’ hints at fortified artillery, missiles, and multiple strategic ports, presenting a formidable challenge to China’s regional ambitions.
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Since then, speculation arose around China’s potential response and the manner in which it might unfold. Additionally, the looming uncertainty revolves around China’s likelihood of success in these endeavors. The overarching concern stems from past attempts, which aimed to create a divide between the Philippines and the United States, yet failed due to the economic edge the U.S. held over China in its offerings to the Philippines. Consequently, Beijing is now pivoting to explore alternative tactics in its approach.
Chinese President Xi Jinping had various motives for engaging in discussions with U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this year in California. Among these objectives likely included strategies to mitigate the potential threat posed by a U.S. blockade. However, whatever transpired or did not transpire during the discussions in California evidently failed to assuage China. Consequently, China initiated a campaign aimed at enticing Manila while dissuading it from upholding its military agreement with the U.S. Additionally, China resorted to threats of potential intrusions into Philippine territory, reinstating territorial claims in the South China Sea that contravene international law. Notably, Chinese aircraft approached U.S. bombers in the region, seemingly in a bid to compel the U.S. to reassess its stance within the region.
To be clear, no combat has yet taken place. These are merely gestures in a region where gestures are common currency. But what is clear from these events is that no stable understanding was achieved on military matters or the South China Sea. China might be signaling that it will not tolerate American bases in the Philippines but the looming uncertainty remains—will it take any concrete steps in response?
Not to mention, China’s knack for issuing final warnings is not hidden from anyone. It’s like a drum roll that never quite leads to the main act. Their threats echo loud, but actions to back them up? Not so much.
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Furthermore, logically speaking, the U.S. has significantly bolstered its stance against China and currently lacks any intention to willingly retract.
The situation is such that if China takes any step threatens to escalate into something much more deadly. The prospect of war, however, depends on the military capabilities of the two belligerents. The U.S. Navy has always been more powerful than China’s, and its new land-based defensive and offensive positions in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea undermine China’s ability to mount a naval assault even further. (If nothing else, they limit China’s aggression by making the risk of defeat too expensive to bear.)
Another aspect worth noting revolves around China’s economic challenges. Undoubtedly, China had been on a steady economic trajectory, but the disruptive waves of Covid-19 hit its economic shores hard. This upheaval paints a clear picture: China wouldn’t be keen on stirring the pot further by cutting ties with the US. Despite China’s saber-rattling and warnings of escalating tensions, they ring hollow, lacking any real substance. It’s like a storm brewing without a thunderclap—ominous but lacking the punch.
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