As Germany approaches its upcoming elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is experiencing a decline in popularity. The prevailing sentiment among the German public appears to be shifting towards the AfD party, known for its Euro-skeptic stance. The likelihood of Chancellor Scholz winning this time seems diminished due to his actions, while the AfD Party is positioned to take power. This public sentiment reflects dissatisfaction with the current leadership, and the AfD’s appeal lies in its skeptical approach towards European integration.
Discussing the EU has traditionally not been considered a winning topic in German elections, but this perspective seems to be changing. In anticipation of the upcoming European polls later this year, the Right-wing Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) has heightened its Eurosceptic stance. Surprisingly, pressure from the Left is also growing, with Germany’s newest political party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), taking aim at Brussels.
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Founded only a few weeks ago by the MP Sahra Wagenknecht and her allies, BSW introduced a hastily assembled skeleton manifesto, promising a novel approach to politics: Left-wing on economic issues and Right-wing on social matters such as immigration.
Survey results currently exhibit considerable variability, predicting BSW to secure between 3 and 17% of the vote, as Germans are still uncertain about the party’s principles. The party’s debut will be in the European Parliament elections scheduled for June this year, for which it has recently unveiled a manifesto deeply critical of the EU.
The 20-page document does not hold back, criticizing Brussels for its “Kafkaesque bureaucratic zeal,” labeling Europe as an “El Dorado for lobbyists,” and advocating for an end to “uncontrolled migration.” Wagenknecht and her colleagues assert that they represent the sentiments of many people who denounce the “aloof politics of detached EU technocrats,” viewing it as an “assault on democracy and a threat to their culture and identity.”
To British ears, this may sound very Right-wing, echoing arguments often made by Brexiteers about regaining control over borders and decision-making processes. Similar principles formed the foundation of the AfD in 2013 when center-right politicians and journalists, critical of Germany’s intervention in the eurozone crisis, advocated for abolishing the euro as a common currency.
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Since its inception, the AfD’s stance has evolved into a broader and more pointed Euroscepticism. Co-leader Alice Weidel recently stated that her party would propose a Brexit-style referendum to the German public if “reform isn’t possible” and if they fail to rebuild the sovereignty of EU member states. Much like the Wagenknecht party, the AfD advocates for increased power for European nation states.
However, there are notable distinctions between the political Right and Left in Germany regarding their shared Euroscepticism. Similar to many British Brexiteers, the AfD adopts a neoliberal stance, advocating for economic deregulation. In contrast, BSW advocates for stronger regulation of the labor market with the aim of enhancing wages and working conditions. It supports the EU’s directive on minimum wage, proposing that member states ensure all workers receive at least 60% of the country’s median wage.
Wagenknecht also calls for the EU to resume oil and gas imports from Russia, emphasizing the idea of Europe as “one common house” and advocating for “constructive peace negotiations” to end the conflict in Ukraine. BSW, on the other hand, would maintain the bloc’s existence to bolster a foreign policy centered on disarmament and detachment from the United States, including the removal of American nuclear weapons from the continent.
Despite its bullish and anti-establishment nature, the effectiveness of Germany’s political fringes’ vocal Euroscepticism as an election strategy remains uncertain. Some studies indicate that Germans have become more critical of Brussels than before; in a survey last year, 56% expressed that they didn’t feel personally included in the phrase “We as Europeans.” However, another poll revealed that three-quarters still consider being in the EU a positive aspect, and less than 10% expressed a desire for the EU not to intervene in areas such as the economy, climate policy, defense, immigration, and refugees.
The political viability of German Euroscepticism is questionable. While immigration, a struggling economy, working poverty, and other issues that BSW and AfD attribute to the EU are genuine concerns for Germans, their anger has primarily been directed at Berlin, especially the administration led by Olaf Scholz.
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This has resulted in the ascent of the AfD in Germany. The rise of the AfD in Germany has prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make concerted efforts to prohibit the party in an attempt to secure victory in the upcoming elections.
A recent court ruling in Germany has intensified discussions regarding the cessation of state funding for the far-right AfD. The constitutional court’s decision to terminate public funding for the minor far-right party Die Heimat, the successor to the National Democratic party (NPD), starting in 2023, has led to calls for similar measures against the more influential AfD. The court justified its decision by asserting that both the NPD and Die Heimat explicitly aimed to undermine or overthrow German democracy.
This landmark ruling coincides with an ongoing debate surrounding the legality of banning the AfD, founded in 2013, and the potential revocation of basic rights for its more radical members. Chancellor Scholz welcomed the court’s decision, describing it as a “confirmation of the pathway to not offering much space to the enemies of freedom.”
Despite the determined efforts of Olaf Scholz, the populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is unlikely to face a ban, as indicated by a prominent academic. The party, experiencing continued growth, has attracted calls from mainstream politicians for a nationwide prohibition, alleging its members’ intent to undermine German democracy.
In an interview with Justin Stares, the Head of News at Brussels Signal, on January 23, German political expert Professor Werner J Patzelt highlighted the challenges associated with implementing a ban on the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party.
Questioning the feasibility of a ban, Professor Patzelt posed the query, “If one-third of the German voters want to vote for the AfD, what would be the effect of banning the AfD?” He raised concerns about the potential consequences, pondering whether it would enhance or diminish legitimacy in Germany or escalate the nation from polarization to a pre-civil war scenario.
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Concluding his remarks, Professor Patzelt asserted, “Nothing will be done.” He expressed a firm belief that the AfD would not be banned.
Simultaneously, public sentiment is evident in the form of a petition signed by over 1 million individuals, urging the government to revoke the right to vote or participate in politics for Björn Höcke, the AfD party’s chief in the State of Thuringia.
Therefore, it is evident that the AfD Party is not slated for a ban. Instead, it is poised to assume power. This impending political shift raises the prospect of Germany withdrawing from the EU, given that the AfD is a Euro-skeptic party. The potential ascendance of the AfD to power suggests a significant policy departure, aligning with the party’s skepticism towards European integration. As a result, the trajectory of Germany’s relationship with the EU will undergo notable changes following the AfD’s assumption of governmental responsibilities.