Once again, Ukraine is experiencing winter, marked by accumulating snow, dropping temperatures, and shorter days. In the ongoing two-year full-scale war, the 600-mile frontline’s skies are teeming with Ukrainian and Russian drones during the extended nights. Unlike historical conflicts, where warfare halted due to harsh conditions, today’s infantry face the brutal winter in trenches and strongpoints. However, the dominance of drones in this war is constrained by their battery life, affected by the cold, and the availability of night-vision cameras.
In the initial war months, Ukrainian forces swiftly shifted frontlines, countering the Russian offensive. Ukraine initially excelled in drone warfare, utilizing commercial technologies and introducing new weapons. Yet, since October 2022, territorial changes have been minimal. Despite recent victories, such as precise attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and deep inside Russian territory, the Ukrainian army faces challenges in maintaining the upper hand.
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While the Russian army initially faced challenges, it has adapted its strategy, resulting in the conflict now favoring Russia. Moscow transitioned its defense industry to a war footing, leading to military spending exceeding prewar levels by more than twice. Thousands of drones, including the Iranian-designed Shahed model assembled in both Iran and Russia, have been deployed, equipped with new capabilities to target costly Western-supplied defenses in Ukraine.
Initially lauded for technological ingenuity when Russian troops advanced on Kyiv, Ukrainian forces are now grappling with Russia catching up in the innovation race. Ukraine struggles to maintain military assistance from external partners. To counter Russia’s advantage in this war phase, Ukraine and its allies must not only increase defense production but also invest in developing and scaling technologies to counter Russia’s advanced drones.
Foreign Affairs contributor Eric Schmidt, following his invitation by the Yalta European Strategy forum in September 2022, visited Ukraine and was profoundly impressed by the determination, resilience, and resourcefulness of the Ukrainian people, culture, and tech industry amid the devastation caused by the Russian military operation. This experience motivated him to actively support Ukraine’s battle for democracy, contributing to both humanitarian causes and the country’s tech ecosystem. Schmidt has revisited Ukraine multiple times, with his latest trip in December 2023 focusing on discussions about the significant role technology plays in Ukrainian offensives and the challenges posed by Russia’s new materiel and drone tactics.
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Particularly in the Black Sea campaign, the Ukrainian military heavily relied on drones, claiming to have destroyed 15 Russian naval vessels and damaged 12 more as of November 17 since the initial 2022 military operation. These drone attacks have not only kept sea lanes clear for vital grain shipments, crucial to Ukraine’s economy, but also hindered Russia’s ability to launch missile strikes from offshore ships and weakened its defense of Crimea and position in the Black Sea, marking a symbolic, economic, and military victory for Ukraine.
In recent months, Ukrainian drone strikes have extended deeper into Russia. Currently, drones are predominantly concentrated along the frontlines in eastern Ukraine. When asked about the most effective weapon for neutralizing tanks in their arsenal, Ukrainian commanders at all levels consistently point to first-person-view drones. These drones are operated by ground pilots who maneuver them while monitoring a live feed from an onboard camera. The introduction of these drones has rendered tank-on-tank engagements obsolete. According to a Ukrainian battle commander, FPV drones exhibit greater versatility than an artillery barrage at the onset of an attack. Unlike traditional shelling, which must cease as friendly troops approach the enemy trench line, FPVs are so precise that Ukrainian pilots can continue targeting Russian positions until their fellow soldiers are just yards away from the enemy.
Now, the tides seem to be turning. However, Kyiv has lost some of its advantages in the drone warfare landscape. Russian forces have adopted tactics pioneered by Ukraine, involving large coordinated attacks utilizing various drone types. Initially, high-altitude intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones are deployed to survey the battlefield and identify targets from a distance. The information is then relayed to pilots operating low-flying, highly maneuverable FPV drones, capable of launching precise strikes against stationary and moving targets from a safe distance. Following these drone-initiated strikes, military vehicles navigate minefields for the ground assault. Since late 2022, Russia has employed a combination of domestically produced drones, the Orlan-10 (a surveillance drone) and the Lancet (an attack drone), to destroy high-value artillery systems, combat jets, and tanks. While Ukraine initially outpaced Russia in drone attacks, it lacks a drone combination that matches Russia’s potent Orlan-Lancet duo.
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Simultaneously, as the Orlan-Lancet team proves decisive in battle, Russia’s superior electronic warfare capabilities enable the jamming and spoofing of signals between Ukrainian drones and their pilots. To counter Russian drones effectively, Ukrainian forces require similar capabilities. A limited number of Ukrainian brigades have obtained jamming equipment from U.S. suppliers or domestic startups. Without such technology, the combination of Russian attack drones and electronic interference poses a threat, potentially pushing Ukrainian forces back into territory they fought hard to liberate early in the conflict.
Most weaponry supplied by Western countries has faced challenges when confronting Russia’s anti aircraft systems and electronic countermeasures. Missiles and attack drones targeting Russian sites are frequently intercepted or deceived, with U.S. weapons being particularly susceptible to GPS jamming. While a limited number of U.S. F-16 fighter jets are expected in Ukraine later this year to target Russian jets, the effectiveness of these aircraft remains uncertain in the face of active electronic warfare and the long-range missiles deployed by Russian aircraft.
Despite harsh winter conditions, Russia has escalated its military offensives, with increased production capacity playing a significant role in this advancement. Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia can now produce or procure approximately 100,000 drones per month, whereas Ukraine’s production capability is only half that amount. International sanctions have not deterred various aspects of Russian military production. Russia has doubled its annual tank production from 100 to 200 before the military operation. Additionally, Russian companies manufacture munitions more cost-effectively than Western counterparts, sometimes compromising safety; for example, a 152-millimeter artillery shell costs around $600 to produce in Russia, while a 155-millimeter shell costs up to ten times as much to produce in the West. Overcoming this economic disadvantage will pose a formidable challenge for Ukraine’s allies.
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Following months of relative tranquility in Kyiv, Russia has resumed routine drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital. Thus far, Ukrainian forces have successfully detected and shot down almost all incoming aircraft, but sustaining this protection will prove challenging as Moscow incorporates technological enhancements to drones, boosts domestic production, devises new evasion strategies, and executes high-volume attacks that overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Additionally, Ukraine faces an economic disadvantage in countering one of Russia’s preferred drones, the Shahed, as it is considerably less expensive than the air defense systems required to neutralize it.
Despite Russian cyberwarfare having limited impact thus far, the Ukrainian military’s reliance on mobile data and smartphones for coordinating operations leaves it susceptible to future attacks. Recent increased efforts by Russia to disrupt cellular networks across Ukraine could have serious consequences. With Russian capabilities expanding across various fronts in this conflict, Ukrainian commanders have grown less optimistic compared to just a few months ago. Their focus has shifted from offensive operations to defending current positions and ensuring the integrity of their forces.
The upcoming months pose significant challenges for Ukraine. During Eric’s visit to Kyiv in December, discussions with government officials and military officers revealed concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin might announce a second round of mass conscription and launch a major offensive in eastern Ukraine after Russia’s election in March. The resilient war economy, expanded materiel production, population advantage of Russia, coupled with uncertainty about continued Western support for Ukraine, especially in a U.S. election year, provide motivation for Putin to intensify efforts. Additionally, Ukraine’s initial home-field advantage has diminished as Russian troops have entrenched themselves on Ukrainian soil, scattering landmines across eastern Ukraine, causing casualties among both Ukrainian combatants and civilians in areas reclaimed by the Ukrainian army. The increased resilience of Russia’s defenses in eastern Ukraine helps explain the less-than-expected outcome of Ukraine’s highly anticipated summer offensive. As Russian forces now probe the frontline for weaknesses, the Ukrainian military has shifted to an “active defense” position, successfully impeding Russian assaults but often at a high cost.
In this phase of the war, as the frontlines stabilize, the skies above will witness a surge in drone activity. Ukraine aims to acquire over two million drones in 2024, half of which it plans to produce domestically, while Russia is set to at least match that procurement. With a multitude of aircraft deployed, any ground movement of troops or equipment becomes vulnerable. Consequently, both armies will concentrate on eliminating each other’s weapons and engaging in drone-to-drone dogfights. As technological advancements extend the range of drones, their operators and support systems can remain hundreds of miles away from the battleground.
However, the remote operation of a drone-centric war doesn’t necessarily translate to a reduction in human costs; if anything, recent developments indicate the opposite. Ukrainian military officials, as conveyed to Eric Schmidt during his visit to Avdiivka in December, highlighted that ground assaults remain a crucial component of Russia’s drone targeting strategy. The Russian army deploys groups of inadequately trained draftees and convicts to attack the Ukrainian frontline, compelling Ukrainian troops to respond and disclose their concealed positions. Subsequently visible to overhead drones, Ukrainian positions become targets for Russian artillery. Estimates suggested a daily toll of around 100 to 200 casualties on each side in this form of combat, a figure that could rise with the increasing lethality and quantity of drones.
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Simultaneously, war fatigue is setting in, and support for Ukraine in both Europe and the United States is showing signs of strain. Diminishing financial and military aid from the West could transform the conflict’s delicate stalemate into an opportunity for Russia. Russia possesses sufficient ammunition stocks and production capacity to sustain the fight for at least another year, while Ukraine must secure additional Western ammunition supplies for long-term planning. Furthermore, Ukraine requires antiaircraft and attack missiles to effectively engage fast-moving airborne targets. Recognizing the vulnerability of U.S. weapons relying on GPS to Russian electronic warfare, Ukrainian startups are tirelessly developing advanced drones resistant to spoofing and jamming. To shift the tide on the battlefield, Ukraine needs more and superior weapons systems, both offensive and defensive. Addressing this gap in innovation and procurement demands consistent financial and technical support from Kyiv’s allies.
A decisive shift on the battlefield could alter the prognosis, but currently, neither Russia nor Ukraine anticipates a swift resolution to the conflict. To prevent a prolonged war, the West must support a unified military initiative to repel Russian forces and a diplomatic effort to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The alternative is the prospect of enduring years of further suffering for those in the war zone.
Ukrainians continually confront stark reminders of the lethal realities of war. Putin is wagering on internal divisions and divided attention in Western capitals to divert focus from the Ukrainians’ struggle for survival as the conflict enters a challenging new phase. Only by neutralizing the advantages gained by Russia can Ukraine and its allies prove him wrong.