As euroscepticism spreads in Europe, it’s like a new trend everyone’s trying on. Forget fashion runways; politicians are strutting in anti-EU styles, rocking “Brexit Chic” and “Frexit Fabulous.” It’s the era of Europe’s Next Top Dissenter. Will national currencies make a comeback in this rebellion? Brussels feels more unloved than a side salad at a pizza party.
A recent poll has shed light on the prevailing sentiment in France, revealing a distinct level of Euroscepticism unparalleled across the European Union. Remarkably, France stands as the sole member state out of the 27 in the bloc where pessimism about its future outweighs optimism. This positioning places France among the countries with the least favorable view of the European Union.
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The comprehensive report from the Centre Kantar Public sur l’Europe, conducted in collaboration with the Jacques Delors Institute and Sciences Po political research centre (CEVIPOF), delves into the multifaceted nature of the French attitude towards the EU. The findings highlight a pervasive atmosphere of gloom and distrust, painting a picture of widespread and unequivocal Euroscepticism among French citizens. This distinctive perspective underscores the intricate dynamics shaping France’s relationship with the European Union.
What we distinguish is two types of ‘political support’. First, “diffuse support” which is the more intangible feelings and attitudes; endorsements of a vision and of values. Secondly, “specific support” which is the assessment of the effectiveness of actions conducted at the EU level.
This distinction allows one to pinpoint a defining aspect of the ambiguous attitude of French individuals toward Europe: a larger degree of dispersed support for the EU. Despite the fact that 53% of French people identify as Europeans, 57% of them say the EU is “remote,” and 65% think it is not “effective,” compared to 49% of the population in Member States.
A comparative study can be performed to determine France’s level of support for the European Union in comparison to other Member States by concentrating on citizens’ evaluations of Europe’s actions.
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This comparative examination elucidates a nuanced typology of attitudes towards the European Union, revealing distinctive elements within member states:
- Divergence in Favorability: A notable divergence is evident between countries most and least amenable to European integration. The former group, characterized by ascending levels of support for the EU, encompasses Ireland, Denmark, Portugal, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Romania, and Malta. Conversely, the latter group, exhibiting escalating opposition to European integration, comprises Slovenia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Greece.
- Social Stratification: A pronounced social divide emerges as a significant factor, particularly pronounced in the case of France. The perception of European integration is markedly negative among the working classes, laborers, the unemployed, and individuals with educational attainment concluding before the age of 16. Members of these demographics generally perceive Europe as posing a threat to national social protection systems. This delineation underscores the influential role of social factors in shaping attitudes towards European integration across all surveyed nations.
Based on stance and intensity, the typology of views toward the EU can be divided into four groups. French attitudes fall into the following categories: First group, comprising 37% of fairly positive Europeans, is followed by second group, comprising 43% of quite negative Europeans, third group, comprising 5% of the most positive Europeans, and last group, comprising 15% of the most negative Europeans. There are twice as many people in the rest of Europe who have the most positive attitudes and twice as few who have the most negative ones.
A social and cultural climate characterized by a degree of mistrust, if not outright animosity, toward liberalism: unfavorable opinions of liberalism, free trade, and competition negatively affect the way that many French people relate to the market, which is the center of the European Union.As a result, 40% of French people think negatively of liberalism. Similarly, free trade is viewed unfavorably by 30% of French people (who rank worst among the countries surveyed). Finally, 29% of French people believe that competition is a bad thing.
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Overall, the French public is becoming more and more distrustful of the EU, and Macron’s leadership is the only thing keeping France a member of the bloc. France is prepared to leave the EU because it is already preparing for June elections and because of Emmanuel Macron’s waning popularity.
Fears over immigration, sovereignty, and economic inequality inside the EU have contributed to the rise in euroscepticism that has been observed in recent years. This trend has resonance even in France and Germany, long seen as the engines of the EU. The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen took advantage of anti-immigration and anti-EU emotions to win about 42% of the vote in the 2022 French presidential election. Even though she was eventually unable to defeat incumbent Emmanuel Macron, her considerable backing demonstrated the remarkable euroskepticism of a considerable section of the French voter base.
Beyond France, even Germany appears to be exhibiting signs of distancing itself from the European Union. In the lead-up to its elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is experiencing a decline in popularity, with a growing inclination among the public towards the Euroskeptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. This shift diminishes the likelihood of Scholz securing victory and reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the current leadership. The AfD’s appeal hinges on its Euroskeptic stance, signaling a departure from traditionally less influential EU-centric issues in German elections. The recent emergence of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party further amplifies the Euroskeptic landscape, articulating criticisms of Brussels in its manifesto and aligning with right-wing sentiments, particularly on migration. While the Left and Right showcase variations in their Euroskepticism, both the AfD and BSW challenge the EU’s established order. However, the effectiveness of Euroskepticism as an election strategy in Germany remains uncertain due to mixed public sentiments towards the EU. The potential rise of the AfD to power suggests that Germany’s relationship with the EU may undergo notable transformations.
In the end, the EU’s survival will depend on its capacity to respond to public concerns and adjust to the shifting political environment. It’s feasible that the current wave of euroskepticism will subside and the EU will emerge stronger than ever if it can accomplish this successfully.
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It is not impossible that during the course of the ensuing ten years, Germany and France, two powerful members of the European Union, might consider leaving. Significant political developments in these countries may be the catalyst for this possible transition. The idea that Germany and France are planning to leave the EU might have a significant impact on all of the member nations because of their significant influence within the bloc.
Their actions could have a domino effect on other countries, such as Poland, Italy, and smaller ones, making them reconsider joining the EU. Should Germany and France decide to pursue an exit strategy, there is a risk that other member states would follow their example, creating a larger, domino effect. Such a break from these important figures might have a profound influence on the political climate in the EU.