Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, reportedly conveyed to two Italian newspapers that his party, Fidesz, is prepared to join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Orbán hinted at the possibility of Fidesz aligning with ECR in the European Parliament in interviews with La Repubblica and La Stampa on Thursday, February 1st.
With just five months left until the European elections, Brussels is anticipating a significant right-wing shift in EU politics. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), both anti-establishment right-wing blocs, are expected to experience substantial growth. However, Fidesz, the Hungarian ruling party, currently remains unaffiliated.
Despite criticism from leaders of the 27 EU member states regarding Hungarian sovereignty, particularly concerning Ukraine, there seems to be a shift in perception, with some politicians recognizing the potential benefits of Fidesz as a prospective partner.
Projections indicate that Identity and Democracy (ID) is poised to surpass the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and become the third-largest group in the European Parliament. A potential merger between ECR and ID could elevate conservatives to a leading position in Brussels. Despite critics portraying Fidesz as isolated in Europe, it is becoming evident that both conservative groups would welcome it into their alliance.
For almost two decades, Fidesz belonged to the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the dominant force in Brussels. However, in 2021, Fidesz left the EPP amid expulsion threats, a move not surprising considering the widening gap between the consistently EU-critical Orbán government and its more Euro-establishment counterparts.
Read More: Orban begins the EU’s undoing
As a new legislative term approaches, non-populist conservatives are reconsidering their stance on Fidesz. The significance is underscored by Fidesz’s projected win of 14 seats out of Hungary’s 21, contributing a substantial delegation to the EU Parliament. In light of this, conservatives seeking dependable allies would be wise to dismiss persistent calls from the left-liberal camp to ostracize Fidesz.
In a February 1 interview, ID Vice-President Gunnar Beck (AfD) expressed a warm welcome for Orbán’s Fidesz within the far-right group, stating, “Fidesz would unquestionably be embraced here in the ID if they decide to seek membership.” Beck conveyed this sentiment to Euractiv, highlighting that ID would be the most fitting home for Fidesz.
Jean-Paul Garraud, the leader of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) delegation in the European Parliament and also a part of ID, echoed this sentiment, expressing strong support for Fidesz’s inclusion. He emphasized the robust personal ties between Victor Orbán and Marine Le Pen, stating, “We naturally hope that they will join the group.”
The enthusiasm is understandable, as Fidesz’s participation would significantly elevate ID’s standing post-election. Even in the absence of the Hungarian ruling party, the ID group, comprising major members such as AfD, RN, and Salvini’s Lega, is anticipated to secure 98 seats. This projection implies surpassing the ECR, Greens, and liberals Renew, securing the position as the third-largest group in Parliament. With Fidesz contributing 14 seats, ID would come close to matching the socialists (S&D).
Join us on Telegram: https://t.me/tfiglobal
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) would see an enhanced position if Fidesz aligns with them. For ECR, the inclusion of Fidesz’s 14 seats could potentially secure them the third position on the podium, surpassing ID. Recent polling places the group at 85 seats, positioning them in 5th place, just below Renew’s 86.
In terms of political alliances, ECR, home to Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and the Polish Law and Justice (PiS), appears to be Orbán’s most logical choice. The alignment between Fidesz and ECR is seen as a seamless fit, covering areas from migration to green policies and the advocacy for sovereignty.
A senior ECR official conveyed confidence in the natural alignment of Fidesz with ECR, stating, “I am convinced that Fidesz joining the ECR would be natural; it belongs to the family of conservative parties. They have strong relations with most of our delegations. Of course, Fidesz has to garner the support of all delegations before joining, but I think they are on the right track. We want Fidesz to join.”
Historically, a point of hesitation for both sides has been the conflict in Ukraine. ECR members strongly advocate for unwavering support for Ukraine, while Fidesz believes Hungarian taxpayers’ funds could be utilized more effectively elsewhere. However, recent developments indicate a potential reconciliation of differences, paving the way for Fidesz to align with the ECR. Hungary not only withdrew its veto on additional funding for Ukraine, albeit with specific demands, but also facilitated the approval of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine by the remaining 26 EU member states. There is speculation that Italian Prime Minister and ECR Party President Giorgia Meloni, known for her strong and amicable relationship with Orbán, might have played a role in persuading her Hungarian counterpart.
Expressing his sentiments in an interview with the French weekly Le Point in December, Viktor Orbán stated, “We have great respect for the Italian prime minister, who heads the ECR. We respect Poland, which is the ECR’s other major party. We’d be happy to join the ECR.” Orbán was referring to Meloni and Poland’s conservative party, Law and Justice (PiS), which, despite its strong support for Ukraine, has previously clashed with Fidesz’s stance.
Despite PiS’s recent challenges, having failed to form a government and returning to opposition after October elections in Poland, there is a clear indication that they would welcome Fidesz into the ECR. Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, a prominent figure within PiS, openly expressed this sentiment at a recent news conference, stating, “I’m open to Fidesz joining.”
While some members within the ID align with Fidesz’s perspectives on the war, others are more inclined to overlook such differences. Their primary focus is on expanding their numbers, making it challenging for the mainstream to impose a cordon sanitaire against the ID. In the past, left-wing and EPP members have consistently refused cooperation, impeding the ID from securing influential posts—a situation they hope will change after the upcoming June election.
The ongoing discussion revolves around a potential major merger between the two right-wing conservative parties in parliament, the ECR and the ID. According to Beck, this topic remains recurrent and is not completely dismissed. A source present at a recent closed-door meeting in Strasbourg revealed to The European Conservative that more concrete negotiations are tentatively planned for mid-March. Describing a potential merger as a monumental shift in Brussels’ power dynamics, the source emphasized that, numerically alone, such a union could position the new sovereigntist bloc at the pinnacle of the European Parliament.
Read More: In the next one and a half years Hungary is going to reset the EU
Viktor Orbán, speaking to Le Point, hinted at the post-election scenario, suggesting that the performance of ID and ECR parties at the ballot box would determine the subsequent cooperation discussions. He emphasized the necessity for collaboration among non-traditional political parties on the Right to secure a majority.
As per the projections by the ECFR, the EPP is expected to secure 173 seats, a slight decrease from the current 178. If an ECR/ID merger occurs, the combined total would reach 183, and with the inclusion of Fidesz, it could rise to 197—accounting for nearly a third of the entire chamber. Such a formidable presence would likely compel the EPP to align more closely with right-wing policies, prompting their collaboration with conservatives in crucial votes and ensuring a majority of 51%.
So will this Hungarian move make the EU waltz to a right-wing rhythm? Let’s keep our eyes on the ballot dance floor!