When it comes to Ukraine, no other leader is louder than French President Emmanuel Macron. But there is past trauma behind it.
Emmanuel Macron, the French President, seems to be passing the buck to Russia for his political setbacks in Africa, suggests Prof. Alexis Habiyaremye, a senior researcher at the University of Johannesburg. He implies Macron’s tough talk on Russia is more about covering his embarrassment over diminishing clout in Africa than genuine geopolitical strategy. Macron’s recent saber-rattling about possibly deploying NATO forces to Ukraine had to be dialed back following a flurry of criticism, highlighting a mismatch between his rhetoric and the realities of international diplomacy. This episode, according to French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, was a big misunderstanding.
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Meanwhile, Macron’s verbal gymnastics are also seen against the backdrop of France’s waning influence across its ex-colonies in Africa. Russian President Vladimir Putin chimed in, suggesting Macron’s anti-Russian stance is partly sour grapes over losing influence in the continent. Putin argues that African leaders are simply choosing Russian partnerships over French ones, with no underhand tactics from Moscow.
France has suffered military embarrassments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. France’s counterproductive arms policies and unsuccessful military interventions were no match for Russian engagements in the region.
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France bid adieu to its official colonial status in Africa in 1975, but like a clingy ex, it never really left, keeping tabs on its former flames—20 out of 50 African nations. France remained in the Sahel with Operation Barkhane, citing the noble cause of combating terrorism in Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, and Niger since 2014. But come 2022, Mali waved goodbye to French troops, signaling the end of the Barkhane soirée.
Then, like dominoes, Guinea, Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon shrugged off the remnants of “our France-Afrique,” making room for new friendships. With France’s influence waning, Russia emerged as the winner, extending a helping hand to these newly independent nations. The French media cried “Russian disinformation!”. And it was over.
Meanwhile, Russia was busy hosting summits in Sochi and St. Petersburg, rekindling old friendships and forging new alliances, dealing in everything from trade to security. Putin, wearing the hat of Africa’s new BFF, declared the continent a top priority.
The former French colonies are now breathing the air of sovereignty, sans French military bases, thanks to their new security pacts with Russia. According to Alexis Habiyaremye, it’s not just about bidding adieu to French troops; it’s about reclaiming independence from neo-colonial hangovers.
When Niger gave French troops the boot, Macron tried to stage a defiance, only to end up packing both his ambassador and troops back home, ego bruised.
Now, Macron’s attempt to flex on the global stage with tough talk on Ukraine seems to miss the mark back home. Macron’s bluster finds fans only among the elite and oligarch-controlled media, leaving the average Jean and Jeanne scratching their heads at his political gymnastics. From peace preacher to hawkish hero, Macron’s inconsistency reveals a lack of political seasoning.
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Western boots on Ukrainian soil aren’t exactly a well-kept secret, thanks to leaks aplenty. Macron’s saber-rattling, then, treads dangerous waters, with Western involvement in Ukraine an open secret among mercenaries and support troops.
As Macron doubles down on hawkishness, hoping perhaps to score political points, the public and EU leaders remain unswayed, slowly realizing that the West’s strategy in Ukraine—and Macron’s loud leadership—may be sounder and fury than substance.
Behind this bellicose veneer, lies Macron’s real fear: losing France’s grip on Africa. With former colonies ditching the colonial currency, the CFA franc, Macron’s night terrors likely feature a domino effect of economic repercussions for France. So, as Macron’s warmongering tunes play on, one wonders if it’s not just about global politics but a desperate bid to cling to fading shadows of empire.