As France gears up for snap elections, the spotlight on Ukraine has notably dimmed, with President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on the subject becoming rare. During the European election campaign, neither the warnings from Volodymyr Zelensky to the French Parliament nor Macron’s declarations about sending combat planes to Ukraine seemed to generate popularity for Macron. Following Marine Le Pen’s National Rally outperforming Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the European Parliament elections, the dissolution of the French parliament has been described by some as an “earthquake,” significantly diverting attention from the Ukraine issue.
Macron’s earlier alarming statements about potentially deploying French troops to Ukraine have since faded into the background. This topic has nearly vanished from public discourse, overshadowed by the urgency of the snap elections. On June 30 and July 7, France will hold elections to elect a new National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament. These elections were called by Macron following significant losses suffered by his centrist party in the recent EU parliamentary elections.
Le Pen’s National Rally now stands poised to potentially gain legislative control. Current polling indicates that Le Pen’s party leads with 35% of the electorate’s support, while Macron’s Renaissance party trails in third place with just 19%. Macron’s recent musings about sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine have not been warmly received by French voters or EU members, given the obvious reluctance to risk lives in a distant conflict. An Elabe poll for BFMTV showed that over half of French citizens (57%) disapproved of Macron’s rhetoric about deploying troops to Ukraine. Additionally, 51% opposed the provision of 3 billion euros under the security cooperation agreement signed by Macron and Zelensky on February 16.
In response to the upcoming elections, Macron has toned down his rhetoric, stating on June 24 that he does not foresee a war involving France or any engagement on Ukrainian soil. He acknowledged the public’s fears and concerns in the “Generation Do It Yourself” podcast, essentially betting that despite their dissatisfaction with him, French voters will not turn to Le Pen, whom they have previously rejected.
Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections followed a significant victory for Le Pen’s National Rally in the European Parliament vote, where her party secured 31% of the French vote. Macron is banking on the notion that the support for Le Pen’s party is more a protest against him than a genuine shift in voter allegiance. Is he rightly, judging the reason for the victory of the National Rally? Historically, the National Rally has struggled to convert its success in EU parliamentary elections into victories in France’s national assembly elections.
Analyst George Szamuely notes that the right in France, and across Europe, views immigration as a major issue, as it is a threat to national identity. Both the right and left in France are eager to rejuvenate the French economy, which is currently stagnant.
During the Yellow Vests Protests, the EU granted Macron some flexibility to engage in deficit spending to address public concerns about fuel price hikes. Normally, the EU enforces strict rules on the national debt and budget deficits relative to GDP, but it showed leniency towards Macron, a favoured leader. However, such flexibility is unlikely to be extended to a National Rally government or a leftist administration. Macron’s policies have aligned with the EU agenda, including the Green agenda, which has placed economic burdens on working people and farmers, leading to higher fuel costs and affecting rural drivers and farmers.
Macron’s previous warmongering rhetoric about Ukraine had raised concerns among European leaders and unnerved many in France. As the election nears, Macron has softened his aggressive stance on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Le Pen’s National Rally, emphasizing national sovereignty and immigration control, has gained momentum as Macron’s support wanes.
Macron’s plans to send NATO soldiers to Ukraine have proven unpopular with a significant portion of the French electorate, highlighting a broader scepticism about military interventions. The upcoming elections will test whether Macron’s strategy of moderating his rhetoric can retain voter support amid growing dissatisfaction. The political landscape in France is shifting, with Le Pen’s National Rally poised to capitalize on the current discontent. The outcome of the snap elections will determine the future direction of French domestic and foreign policy, particularly concerning the EU and Ukraine.
The erosion of President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity in France has been influenced by multiple factors, with Ukraine playing a notable role. Macron’s economic policies, leading to rising energy costs and increased military expenditure, have exacerbated public discontent, which was already simmering due to domestic issues like pension reforms and perceived elitism. So, how many mistakes did Macron make in total that led to his unpopularity?