An Honest Step or a Bluff?

After being so captivated by the US, Ukraine is now starting to think, “Oops, maybe we should talk peace with Russia,” who, by the way, suggested it ages ago. It seems like a light bulb moment after a long night out. The plot twist? Zelensky, the so-called president, wants to head these peace talks when he is not recognized by Putin as a legitimate leader.

You have to wonder, is this another round of “let’s pretend” from Ukraine? Zelensky should have realized by now that without legitimacy, these peace talks are just a fantasy.

Russia must be rolling its eyes, thinking, “Great, another episode of Ukraine’s bluff drama.” How can real peace talks happen when Zelensky keeps showing up like an uninvited guest at a party? The insanity continues, and the audience is left amused.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently unveiled a brand-new comprehensive plan to end the ongoing conflict with Russia. How novel! It’s like he just discovered the idea of peace, which Russia has been subtly suggesting for a long time. Better late than never, right? Of course, Zelensky emphasized that this plan needs global support. Apparently, he thinks if enough countries give him a thumbs-up, it’ll somehow transform into a magical peace treaty. Spoiler alert: it will take a bit more than international high-fives to resolve this mess.

In a twist, Zelensky finally admitted that Ukraine has been suffering high casualties on the battlefield. Who knew? His newfound transparency is as refreshing as it is late. It’s almost as if he had just realized that acknowledging reality might be the first step in dealing with it.

Mark Sleboda, an international relations and security expert, weighed in on Zelensky’s latest brainstorm. He pointed out that while the idea of peace is nice, Zelensky’s optimism might be slightly misplaced given Ukraine’s current predicament. Sleboda didn’t hesitate, describing Zelensky’s stance as being firmly planted in “fantasy land,” where Ukraine thinks they can dictate terms to Russia despite losing ground. It’s a tough sell trying to play hardball when you’re the one getting beaten.

Sleboda did concede that Zelensky’s comments could be a baby step toward sitting down at the negotiation table with Russia. Maybe we’re finally moving towards a scenario where peace talks aren’t just a figment of someone’s imagination.

Zelensky did mention he’d be open to talking to Russia through an intermediary at some undefined point in the future. Interestingly, Zelensky’s remarks came after a so-called “peace summit” he organized, flopped spectacularly. Russia didn’t show up, and several influential countries outside the West, like Brazil, South Africa, India, and Saudi Arabia, flat-out refused to sign the final document. Talk about a tough crowd.

Sleboda speculated that Zelensky’s statement might be a nod to the global majority outside the Western bloc, who are increasingly fed up with the ongoing conflict and are clamouring for real peace negotiations. The shift in Zelensky’s tone also reflects the grim reality on the battlefield.

Ukraine has been losing significant territory, with the Russian Ministry of Defense recently announcing the capture of Stepovaya Novoselovka and Novopokrovskoye. Losing ground does have a way of changing one’s tune. Zelensky’s symbolic move towards negotiations is driven by desperation. When you’re continuously losing, seeking peace becomes less of an option and more of a necessity.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are constantly shuffling troops around like a game of military musical chairs, trying to fend off Russian offensives and for instance, moving veteran troops from Toretsk to Kharkov—strategically challenging.

Adding to the fun, Zelensky signed a decree in 2022 ruling out any possibility of negotiating with Putin. Legal hurdles are always a delight, especially when they complicate already tenuous peace prospects. Earlier this year, Zelensky extended his term without elections under martial law. Putin condemned his actions as he saw Zelensky as an illegitimate leader, recognizing only the authority of the Ukrainian parliament.

For a successful negotiation, all three parties: Russia, Ukraine and the US need to be on the table. And as long as Joe Biden is in office, any negotiations between Russia and the US are unlikely. The current geopolitical climate isn’t exactly conducive to warm and fuzzy peace talks.

Despite the largely symbolic nature of Zelensky’s recent comments, they do represent a shift in tone, acknowledging the severe challenges Ukraine is facing. This might be a precursor to more concrete steps toward peace, or it might just be more hot air.

For any future peace negotiations to be effective, international intermediaries and the broader geopolitical context, need to be conducive. We need to wait and watch where Zelensky’s comment will take him.

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