Trump in, sanctions out! Trump administration 2.0 is still 60 days away and we are already hearing about how the 47th may undo American sanctions on Russia. Trump has previously said he doesn’t like sanctions when it came to Russia. So, it’s highly likely that Trump may take a very different approach than the current commander-in-chief: Joe Biden.
Trump’s approach to foreign policy often revolves around forming personal ties with key leaders. As per retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who has worked closely with Trump in the past, Trump sees sanctions and brute force as last resorts, not first options.
This means that when it comes to issues like the Ukraine conflict, Trump is likely to try to talk things out with Russian leader Vladimir Putin instead of imposing more sanctions. Kellogg told the Wall Street Journal that Trump would aim to “find a way to work through a problem” before considering harsher measures.
First thing first, US and EU sanctions on Russia have failed miserably but still they kept on piling thousands of sanctions on Moscow just for headline management. Trump’s view on sanctions is different; he has previously mentioned that he “doesn’t love sanctions” because they push countries away from the United States. If Trump decides to reduce or remove these sanctions, Russia could regain access to international markets that have been restricted.
One area where this could have a major impact is Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project. This massive natural gas project is part of Russia’s broader goal to become a leading global supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Arctic LNG 2 plant is located along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which allows Russia to ship LNG to European and Asian markets faster than through traditional routes.
If Trump’s administration were to loosen sanctions, Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project would have more room to grow. Without U.S. restrictions, the project could receive more funding, work with more international partners, and export LNG more freely. This would mean more jobs, more exports, and more revenue for Russia. This would be a big win for Russia, as it could increase the country’s economic power and influence in the energy market.
Some experts believe that Trump’s personal connection with Vladimir Putin and his view on sanctions make it likely that he will ease U.S. restrictions on Russia. Ana Subasic, an analyst for the data firm Kpler, suggests that Russia will “definitely have more space to maneuver” with Trump in office. With Trump’s evolving priorities and his willingness to take a different approach from other U.S. leaders, it’s possible that he may soften the U.S. stance on Russia.
But then, there are some hawkish voices as well. Steve Mnuchin, who served as the Secretary of the Treasury during Trump’s first term, has called for imposing more sanctions on Russia. He also added that the current sanctions imposed on Russia have been more about making headlines and less about achieving real effectiveness. “Russia is selling plenty of oil and gas,” Mnuchin noted, highlighting the need for more impactful measures. But guess what, this Russia-hawk leader has not been invited to join the Trump administration 2.0. Does that mean only pro-Russia, China-hawk and pro-India leaders are going to make it to Trump cabinet. Well, it looks so!