On December 21st, 2024, the festive cheer of the Magdeburg Christmas market was shattered when a car driven by Taleb, a 50-year-old Saudi-born doctor residing in Germany, ploughed into the crowd, killing five and injuring over 200. This horrific act, committed by an avowed atheist and anti-Islam critic, reignited a fierce debate about the impact of migration on European societies, a debate that has simmered for years. The incident echoes the chilling 2016 attack in Berlin, where a Tunisian man with ISIS ties drove a truck through the Christmas market, killing 12. While the perpetrators’ motivations differ, one driven by Islamist extremism, the other by anti-Islamic ideology and personal grievances, both attacks underscore a deeper societal unease.
The influx of millions of migrants since 2015 has undeniably transformed European societies, with concerns growing about the strain on resources, rising social tensions, and the erosion of cultural identity. This anxiety is reflected in the rise of right-wing, anti-immigration parties across Europe, from Germany’s AfD to France’s National Rally, and in the growing public disillusionment with the perceived failures of integration policies. These events are part of a larger picture where the continuous influx of migrants has contributed to a feeling of cultural erosion, intensifying social tensions, and inflaming inflammatory rhetoric. This raises the question of how Europe has reached such boiling social tensions and what can be deciphered from these incidents.
EUROPE ON BOIL
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has reignited the migration debate, linking it to security issues following the attack at a German Christmas market. During his annual press conference in Budapest, he stated, “These issues are no longer anomalies; they have become routine,” and blamed mass migration for such incidents. Orbán declared, “Brussels cannot turn Hungary into Magdeburg. We will resist any forced migration regulations, legally or provocatively. Hungary will always defend itself and its sovereignty.”
His comments reflect a broader reality in Europe, where migration has become a polarizing issue. According to the World Migration Report 2020, over 82 million international migrants lived in Europe in 2019, a 10% increase since 2015, with non-European migrants growing by about 3 million. This influx has contributed to Europe’s highest number of asylum applications since 2016, placing a strain on resources for processing, accommodation, services, and integration. The so-called “refugee crisis” of 2015 exposed deep divisions within the EU. Despite recent efforts like the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, national governments have implemented separate measures, such as fortifying borders, restricting asylum systems, and negotiating deals with non-EU states to limit movement.
This patchwork of policies has failed to deter migrants and created further divisions within the bloc. The crisis has fuelled a political shift to the right, with anti-immigration and far-right parties now holding power in seven EU countries, including Finland and Italy, and supporting minority governments in Sweden. Austria’s far-right Freedom Party recently topped elections, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland has made historic gains, and France’s National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, wields significant influence. In the UK, anti-migration sentiment is surging, with Reform UK overtaking the Conservative Party in membership, and anti-immigrant riots breaking out last August. Orbán’s hardline stance highlights the ongoing challenges Europe faces in managing migration. While individual nations tighten controls, the EU struggles to form a cohesive response, leaving the continent divided and straining under the weight of the refugee crisis and rising social tensions.
THE GERMAN EXAMPLE
Germany serves as a pivotal example in Europe’s migration debate. In 2015, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door policy allowed around 1.2 million asylum seekers into the country, a stance that earned international praise but also led to significant internal challenges.
The strain on municipalities and a sense of chaos bolstered the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered the federal parliament in 2017 and became the largest opposition party. In response, Germany, along with seven other Schengen countries, reinstated border controls, citing terrorism risks and overwhelmed asylum systems.
The Netherlands introduced what it calls the “strictest admissions rules in the EU,” while Germany, once a symbol of liberal migration policies, tightened its asylum laws and reintroduced checks at its land borders, threatening the integrity of the EU’s Schengen zone. The societal impact has been profound, with Germany recording 1,926 anti-Muslim incidents in 2024, a 114% rise from the previous year, particularly following the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel. Concerns over demographic changes are mounting; Muslims, who made up 4.1% of Germany’s population in 2010, could comprise up to 19.7% by 2050, outpacing projected shares in the UK and France.
Meanwhile, the rise of Islamism presents additional challenges, with over 27,000 Islamists reported in the country in 2022, a significant increase from two decades ago. The phenomenon of “TikTokisation of Islamism,” referring to the spread of Islamist content on social media, highlights the growing diffusion of radical activities beyond major cities. Currently, Germany hosts around 3.5 million migrants with some form of international protection, the highest in its history. In response, the German parliament has enacted reforms that lean toward more restrictive immigration policies.
The German experience raises a broader European question: can the continent balance its humanitarian values with security and social cohesion, or is it approaching a moment of reckoning?
MOMENT OF RECKONING
In recent years, Europe has witnessed the increasing intersection of immigration from Islamic states and rising social tensions, deeply connected to broader geopolitical, cultural, and economic challenges. Immigration from Muslim-majority countries has become a flashpoint, sparking significant concerns about security, integration, and the preservation of social cohesion, leading to growing instability. The rise of Islamism in Europe, manifesting in both violent and non-violent forms, has been particularly visible in France, which has experienced several high-profile terrorist attacks, including the 2015 Bataclan theatre attack, the Charlie Hebdo massacre, and the 2020 murder of Samuel Paty. These incidents, alongside attacks in cities like Brussels, Berlin, and Manchester, have fuelled fears about the consequences of unchecked immigration from Muslim-majority countries, while contributing to the rise of anti-immigrant and far-right movements across Europe. The broader structural issues, such as economic inequality, housing affordability, and a sense of alienation among younger generations, have amplified negative attitudes toward immigration. Between 2019 and 2023, resentment towards immigration from outside the EU grew, particularly among the youth, with the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups expressing higher levels of opposition. In 2017, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan warned Europe that failure to address extremism could turn certain countries into “incubators of terrorism,” criticizing European nations for their lack of commitment to combating terrorism. This sentiment was echoed by Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, who likened Europe to a garden surrounded by a jungle, underscoring the growing tensions between Europe’s liberal values and rising threats.
The linkage between increasing immigration from Islamic states, radicalization within immigrant communities, and the social tensions across Europe calls for a decisive reckoning, as Europe faces mounting pressures that jeopardize its stability.
