On 20th January President elect Donald Trump will be taking his oath as the 47th President of the United States. Trump will be sworn in for the second time to take charge of the highest post in the country and as the new apparent ‘leader of the free world’. Whether in power or out of it, Donald Trump always manages to draw the eyes of the world, from his strong statements to his direct all out attacks, he keeps nothing veiled. His policies too will be as direct and clear as his stance.
As the leader of arguably the most powerful nation in the world, Donald Trump’s decisions will affect not only the future of the United States but perhaps every nation on the planet.
Trump’s effect on Europe
Trump adopts a very isolationist approach in his foreign policy. During his first period in office, Trump already showed little interest in maintaining international cooperation. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and other multilateral forums was a clear sign that Trump was prepared to follow up on his ‘anti-globalist’ views.
This time Trump might go even further. The United States under Trump might even withdraw from other global institutions like the United Nations, NATO, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the OECD. Trump is of the firm belief that these global organizations are a drain on the US economy and are largely being funded by the United States alone.
This move would cause huge damage to Europe, heavily dependent as it is on multilateral cooperation. Without the United States as a stable partner, it would be extremely difficult to address global challenges such as climate change and poverty effectively or to reform the global governance structures. At the same time, withdrawal by the United States would allow actors such as China and Russia to gain more power, which could exacerbate political tensions and detract from Europe’s position.
Trump on NATO
Trump also has a very decisive policy as far as the NATO is concerned. The transatlantic alliance has been a mainstay of US foreign policy since its inception in 1949. The treaty that has 32 member nations is primarily a West centric security alliance that aims to expand the interests of the United States and its allies at a global stage. However Trump has been extremely critical of this alliance as he believes that the US funds the entire organization and it is drain on its resources.
As the US funds the defence of the NATO countries, the other member nations enjoy the privilege the security blanket provides without even footing the bill. According to Trump this is a complete one sided relationship which has little benefit for the US going forward unless the other member nations start contributing to the funds of the alliance.
The faltering economies of major alliance partners like Germany, UK and France, indicates that they will be hard pressed to fund the NATO alliance. In the longer term, capability shortfalls and a reliance on American strategic leadership mean the Europeans have no workable NATO like alternatives to fall back on should Trump order a US withdrawal or a downsizing of its commitment. The EU, for all the language of “strategic autonomy”, is an economic body rather than geostrategic – and, in any case, it also excludes several big NATO allies, including the UK, Canada, Norway and Turkey. A US withdrawal from the NATO alliance will spell huge financial and geopolitical repercussions for the European nations and other NATO countries.
Neighbourhood Policy
Trump has a very tough stance vis a vis the immediate neighbourhood of United States is concerned. For some time now, Donald Trump has suggested in a series of social media posts that acquiring the Panama Canal and making Canada the 51st state of the US is in his focus. He also mocked outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as a mere “governor” and again suggested the country could be turned into a US state. Trump has even threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and engage in a trade war with the neighbouring nation. A call that has sent alarm bells ringing in Ottawa.
Trump wrote in a social media post, “If Canada was to become our 51st state, their taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other country anywhere in the world.”
Trump has also threatened to take control of the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the crucial trade passage and warning of potential Chinese influence which he says he will not tolerate. Trump has also made serious moves attempting to acquire the Danish controlled region of Greenland, Trump has clearly indicated that the region should become a part of the US, even his son Don Jr visited the country to have some of his own talks.
The Putin Question
Donald Trump has a very different approach towards Russia as compared to the outgoing President Joe Biden. While Joe Biden and the Democrats have been heavily funding the Ukraine war, Trump belives the war funding to be another massive drain on the US economy.
Trump has been extremely vocal about solving the long-drawn Ukraine-Russia war. He and his team have also confirmed that a meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin will take place soon after Trump’s inauguration. According to his running mate JD Vance, Trump would start negotiations with Kremlin, Ukraine, and the European Union (EU) stakeholders to achieve “a peaceful settlement”.
“Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine – it doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join some of these allied institutions. That is what the deal is ultimately going to look something like,” he said.
A solution to the Ukraine war would be extremely beneficial for the global economy which has suffered heavily due to sanctions, embargos, and rerouting of trade. The war has had a significant impact on global oil prices resulting in substantial economic inflation across the world. The end of the conflict will come as a relief to many suffering economies and will act as a timely boost to the US markets as well.
The middle east conundrum
Donald Trump had earlier promised that “the Middle East is going to get solved” but offered few details on how he might achieve such an outcome. When he returns to the White House, his “America first” agenda will be challenged by the United States’ involvement in Israel’s war in Gaza and the precarious situation of the middle east.
The Middle East that Trump will inherit from the Biden administration has undergone tectonic shifts. Over the past year, Iran and Israel have directly attacked each other’s territory, Israel has militarily dominated Hamas and Hezbollah assassinating a number of their key figures. Meanwhile the Assad regime in Syria has also fallen, leaving behind a void in the region which many international players are trying to fill. trump will have to manage the fallout of all these clashes while maintaining the friendly relationship with ally Israel.
Trump and China
Trump has a very tough approach as far as China is concerned, as a nationalist as well as a businessman, Trump believes that his nation and the US business houses are suffering from competition from China. China has cheap mass produced products that it floods the US market with thereby destroying the native industries financially. In his first term as well Trump had maintained that he will impose strict tariffs on China and will make sure that hey do not get an easy access to the American market.
Trump also holds strong geopolitical opinions on China, he has previously sought to limit their global influence through the QUAD alliance. Trump is also looking to check the influence of China on Taiwan and the South China sea while also limiting heir global influence. China’s moves in Panama and Greenland have not gone unnoticed and Trump is looking to consolidate USA’s hold over the regions before China is able to insert itself completely with the local economies.
Trump and The Global South
Whereas Trump 2.0 poses a great geopolitical and economic threat to Europe and the West, some in the Global South will see a second Trump presidency as an opportunity. The global south which consists of huge markets and economic possibilities holds a great lure for the US companies, who see them as a much better investment opportunity than the high priced economies of Europe. High population countries with diverse markets of Asia, Africa and South America are part of the global south. Countries with great economic collaboration potential for the US such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Brazil, as well as the many Arab and central asian nations.
The partial withdrawal by the United States from the current global order could afford these nations a greater scope to break free from power structures dominated by the West and to increasingly help establish a multipolar order less geared towards western values and norms. Now that the US veers away away from its usual allies of Europe it will also open up those markets for India, China and Russia to expand their influence in the region.
There are reports that as soon as Donald Trump begins his Presidency he will sign 100 executive orders. His strong policies on immigration, foreign relations, his tariff policies, his geopolitical ideas and his reworking of geostrategic relations of the US will affect almost the entire globe in one way or the other.
While some countries are looking forward to the Trump Presidency others are massively wary of the rippling effects of his strong man approach. Either way countries may like or dislike the way Trump conducts his operations, one thing is for certain his second term as President of the United States may end up as one for the History books.