In 2024, China registered its lowest number of new marriages in four decades. The trend only shows the country is experiencing the deepest demographic challenges – a shrinking population and falling birth rate. Data from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs says that only 6.10 million couples registered their marriage last year, with a sharp decrease of 20.5 % from the registration in 2023. These trends are almost similar in the case of Japan and South Korea, reflecting new social attitudes as well as growing economic concerns preventing young people from getting married or starting families.
Declining Marriage Trends in East Asia
In China, the 2024 figure represents the lowest number of marriages since 1980. Meanwhile, divorces in the country increased by 1.1% to 2.82 million despite the overall drop in marriage registrations.
While South Korea’s marriage rate hit a record low in 2022, with only 192,000 marriages—down from 435,000 in 1996. By 2023, the average age of first marriage had risen to 33.7 years for men and 31.3 years for women. Economic burdens such as high housing costs and job insecurity discourage young people from marrying while changing social norms have made staying single or cohabiting more acceptable. Additionally, the high cost of weddings and societal expectations deter many couples.
Japan has also seen a significant decline in marriage rates, which have fallen by over 30% since the 1970s. The average age of first marriage now stands at 31.0 years for men and 29.4 years for women. Japan’s demanding work culture leaves little time for dating or relationships. Additionally, the trend of “parasite singles”—young adults living with their parents—has contributed to delayed marriages, while more women prioritize careers over marriage.
Impact of Population Decline
Experts warn that China’s marriage rate will take a long-term toll on its birth rate. Since most of the births in China occur within marriage, the downward trend will push birth figures even lower in 2025. However, China witnessed a rare increase in births in 2024, as it recorded 9.54 million births against 9.02 million births in 2023. Experts attribute this increase to the rise in marriages in 2023 and the cultural belief that babies born in the Year of the Dragon bring good fortune.
South Korea, however, continues to struggle with record-low fertility rates. In 2023, the fertility rate fell to 0.72, far below the replacement level of 2.1. High childcare costs and education expenses deter couples from having children, while many women feel pressured to choose between career and family. The country has recorded a population decline since 2020, with more deaths than births. By 2050, 40% of South Korea’s population is expected to be over 65, leading to labour shortages and an economic slowdown.
Japan’s fertility rate fell to 1.26 in 2022, continuing a long-term decline. The country has one of the fastest-ageing populations, with over 29% of citizens above the age of 65. Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million but declined to approximately 124 million in 2023. several towns are vanishing due to low birth rates, creating labour shortages in industries such as healthcare, construction, and caregiving.
Government Interventions
China’s Measures
China has introduced various policies to encourage marriage and childbirth, though their impact remains limited. In October 2024, the State Council outlined 13 measures to address challenges related to childbirth, child care, and social support. These include:
Inclusion in maternity insurance: Extending coverage to flexible workers and rural migrants under urban workers’ medical insurance.
Workplace leave policies: Implementing maternity, paternity, childbirth reward, and childcare leave policies.
Childbirth subsidy system: Offering childbirth subsidies and increasing personal income tax reliefs.
Medical insurance for labour pain relief: Expanding insurance to cover labour pain relief and assisted reproductive technology.
Health education and early care: Enhancing adolescent health education and improving early-pregnancy and abortion care services.
Pediatric resource expansion: Increasing investment in pediatric care and ensuring better distribution of services.
Childcare services accessibility: Establishing childcare centres at the city and prefecture levels.
Housing support for larger families: Raising housing loan limits for families with multiple children.
South Korea’s Measures
South Korea has also implemented policies to encourage childbirth and support families, including:
Cash bonus for giving birth: Increased cash benefit for newborns in families by 2024.
Work-life balance: As of 2025, dads will get paid paternity leave for 20 days instead of the previous 10 days.
Gender balance in the workplace: Redistributive tax support that includes men and tailored employment support programs for young people.
Encouraging immigration: Bringing in foreign housekeepers to assist women in managing domestic responsibilities, which would increase both the birth rate and female workforce participation.
Japan’s Measures
Japan has adjusted its policies to counter its declining birth rate and labour shortages:
Expanded childcare support and tax benefits: Increased government support for families raising children.
Promoting work-life balance: Employers with over 100 employees are now required to assess male employees’ childcare leave usage and set targets for work-life balance.
Adjusted immigration policies: Opening the country to more foreign workers to address labour shortages.
Development of AI and robotics: Investing in technology to maintain productivity amid a shrinking workforce.
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Future Implications
Despite these interventions, experts remain sceptical about long-term improvements in birth rates. While China saw a temporary rebound in 2024 due to cultural factors, demographers predict birth figures will decline again in 2025. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea continue to grapple with ageing populations, shrinking workforces, and economic stagnation. Unless these nations address underlying economic and social barriers to marriage and childbirth, their demographic crises are expected to deepen further in the coming decades.
While these nations have developed considerably and are competing with the best in the world in terms of tech and skills. The population crisis may put an end to the envisaged hopes that the 21st century will be an Asian century. Certainly Eastern Asia may today be competing with the best but it’s future Outlook seems rather grim.
