The EU is looking at a devastating future, as it faces extra costs of over $3.1 trillion in the next decade due to the expected Trump Putin peace proposal talks. The EU nations risk financial destruction if they continue to support Ukraine, as member states will be forced to build up their own militaries in the absence of US assistance, experts warn.
The worrying Bloomberg report follows recent warnings from Washington regarding the expected funding cuts for Kiev from the US. Newly inaugurated President Donald Trump has warned that the US could cut NATO spending unless European members agree to boost their own contributions from 2% to 5% of GDP.
At a meeting with his NATO counterparts in Brussels this past week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated these warnings, saying European members must shoulder the burden of providing “the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine” and “take ownership of conventional security on the continent.” He noted that the US will no longer be “primarily focused on the security of Europe” and will instead work on securing its own borders.
This stance has been one of the Hallmark’s of the new Trump administration, as it looks at all sectors to cut down US spending and the far off Ukraine war is one of the topmost ways to reduce the spending bill. The US has spent billions of dollars over the past few years in aid and military asisstance to the eastern European nation, especially under the previous Biden regime. However the Donald Trump administration has an entirely different stance to the entire war, Trump believs it is a massive waste of the US resources as they are getting practically nothing back in return.
Trump has also regularly expressed his discontent with the other NATO and european allies who he believes have been taking advantage of the US by not spending enough for the alliance’s miltary projects and have instead left the entire heavy spending to the US. Trump has argued that either they pay up their end of the bargain or he is inclined to move his nation out of the alliance that he affirms has little monetary or other benefit for Washington.
Following Hegseth’s speech echoing Trump’s stance, Bloomberg economists attempted to calculate how much European countries would have to spend on supporting Ukraine through potential peace talks with Russia and reconstruction, as well as revamping their own militaries.
They estimated that rebuilding Ukraine’s military could cost around $175 billion over the next decade, depending on its state and territorial realities when a settlement with Russia is reached. Another $30 billion would be required for a 40,000-strong peacekeeping force over the same period, they said, in line with reports that a potential peace deal may include deploying peacekeepers to the area. Around $230 billion more will be needed for reconstructing buildings and infrastructure in Ukraine damaged during the conflict, they estimated.
However, according to Bloomberg, the bulk of the money would be needed to improve the military capabilities of EU member states, including building up artillery stockpiles, improving air-defenses, strengthening the bloc’s eastern borders, and ramping up the European defense industry.
Despite Trump’s calls, discussions among European NATO members indicate that they find the 5% of GDP defense spending goal unrealistic, and plan to boost the aggregate defense budget toward around 3.5% of GDP. This would cost the five largest European NATO members an additional $2.7 trillion over the next decade, economists estimated.
The news outlet noted that it would be a challenge for EU states to mobilize resources on this scale, and would likely force European governments to restructure their budgets and agree to joint debt issuance. The publication warns that the bloc’s health, education, and welfare sectors would likely suffer from the burden the most.
EU states face Trump dilemma
Meanwhile Officials in European NATO states are themselves reluctant to completely shoulder Ukraine’s security without the financial backing of the US, The Financial Times reported. This week, the US President Donald Trump administration signaled its desire for minimal involvement, once a possible truce is achieved.
According to the FT, Washington’s transatlantic allies “fear they will have to bear the cost of postwar security and reconstruction” and are frustrated by Trump’s negotiations with Russia conducted without their input.
One source indicated that a scenario where “the US says, ‘We did the ceasefire, and all of the rest is for you to clean up’” wouldn’t work for the EU. The diplomat further noted: “There is a limit to what the EU alone can realistically provide in terms of money, arms, and perhaps boots on the ground.” Another EU official remarked that “the Americans don’t see a role for Europe in the big geopolitical questions related to the war,” adding: “Trump sees us as money.”
Hegseth characterized Kiev’s ambition to recover territories it has lost since 2014 as “an unrealistic objective,” an “illusionary goal” would only lead to greater suffering. He also dismissed the feasibility of NATO membership for Ukraine and emphasized that any post-ceasefire peacekeeping mission should not involve the US-led military bloc or US forces: “To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine.”
France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK issued a joint statement this past week alongside EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. Kallas declared Ukrainian territorial integrity “unconditional” and demanded Western Europe has a “central role” in any future negotiations.
However US President Trump has made it clear that he intends to himself sort out a definite peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and move his eyes away from the war and clash theatre of Europe. Trump is also moving towards an all out trade war with the EU. It looks clear that if the European nations continue on their warpath spending spree, they might be leading their own nations to complete financial ruin.