Trump is back in power and it has already caused massive headache for policymakers in Ottawa.
But guess what, a bigger crisis might be on its way to Canada in coming years. And that crisis pertains to elections in the Quebec province.
Of course, elections are not a problem. The problem for Canada is that people this time around may put the Parti Québécois (PQ) back in power. The PQ party favours Quebec’s independence.
Now, it is feared that with PQ party in power in Quebec and Trump in power in US; there is a much higher possibility of the province finally gaining independence from Canada.
With elections set to take place by October next year, the Parti Québécois (PQ), once thought to be in decline, may be on the path to a resurgence. Led by the dynamic Paul St. Pierre Plamondon, the party has regained momentum, with Plamondon promising to hold an independence referendum if elected.
The PQ previously held power under three different leaders from 1994 to 2003 and again from 2012 to 2014. However, it lost influence in the following years—until its recent revival.
Now, what is certain is that a PQ victory would reignite the independence debate in Canada, shifting national focus and making it harder to address other pressing challenges.
These include tackling sluggish economic growth and low efficiency, balancing environmental commitments with the needs of the energy and mining sectors, and navigating an increasingly complex global landscape shaped by great power competition.
Although Quebec voters have elected the PQ to power multiple times, they have twice rejected independence in referendums. In 1980, the proposal was decisively defeated, with 59.56 percent voting against and 40.44 percent in favor. In 1995, the margin was much narrower, but independence was still rejected, with 50.58 percent voting “No” and 49.42 percent voting “Yes.”
But is such a referendum takes place now, Quebec separatists may find themselves in a much stronger position. There are many reasons for that.
In 1995, there was a massive grassroots effort by English-speaking Canadians to persuade Quebec voters that their presence in Canada was greatly valued.
But that factor might no longer be at play in future referendums. Secondly, the role and stance taken by the US also plays an important role in Quebec’s separatism, as the province shares a lengthy border with the US.
When it seemed in 1995 that Quebec might vote for independence, Bill Clinton voiced his support for “a strong and united Canada,” likely realising that the breakup of its northern neighbor and the creation of a new state on the US border would bring unwanted complications.
Clinton’s stance echoed that of Jimmy Carter, who took office in 1976 around the same time as Quebec’s first PQ premier, René Lévesque. Carter also expressed his “preference” for a united Canada.
But Trump is no Carter and Clinton. Trumps loves disruption. He would any day welcome Canada’s breakup as one step closer to bring Canada under Washington DC’s control.
Trump might support Quebec’s independence, seeing a smaller, newly formed state as more likely to align with American interests. He may also view it as a godsent chance to push for further influence over the rest of Canada, potentially reinforcing his past remarks about it becoming the 51st state.
Simply put, Trump would fully support Quebec’s independence, in line with his administration’s overt support to nationalists in Germany and UK. So, we can very well see Elon Musks and JD Vances of the US throwing their support behind the PQ party ahead of elections next year. Looks like the project to ‘Make Quebec great again’ begins.
