Until last year, it was Russia’s Putin who wanted to have control over Ukraine’s Donbas. Now, he has a competition: President Trump of the US.
Ukraine claims there is vast rare earth mineral wealth worth $5.75 trillion. And Trump believes it. So, it puts him on a collision course with Putin.
On Wednesday, news emerged that Ukraine had agreed to a rare earth mineral deal with the White House. As per a report in the Financial Times, the agreement will establish a reconstruction fund for Ukraine, with 50% of the profits going toward repaying the US for its economic aid.
You see, Trump’s foreign policy is simple: It is purely transactional—operating on a “what’s-in-it-for-me” basis.
The US is no longer acting as the global sheriff. Instead, it is treating democracy like a franchise, charging allies a fee to participate.
If the mineral agreement is finalised, Trump will be in direct competition with Putin for control over Donbas’s resources. Washington’s handling of this deal increasingly resembles a mafia-style operation, with Ukraine essentially paying protection money.
Zelensky is under immense pressure to accept the deal. Ukraine’s cities are being bombed daily, and its front lines are facing relentless Russian assaults. His previous appeals for support fell on deaf ears, and now he is left with little choice. Ukraine must now “pay for protection,” even though the original aid under the Biden administration was given as grants.
However, the US-Ukraine deal makes no mention of forcing Russia to pay for the destruction it has caused. Still, there was a notable shift. In the preamble to the agreement, the US acknowledges that Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February three years back.
And that’s it. There are no more prizes for Ukraine on this front.
Under the agreement, Ukraine will contribute 50% of all future revenues earned from its government-owned natural resources to the reconstruction fund. This fund will be co-managed by the US and Ukraine, with profits reinvested annually to support Ukraine’s security and prosperity.
In return, Trump claims Ukraine will receive $350 billion, military equipment, and the right to keep fighting under the agreement. Notably, the deal does not include the $500 billion Trump originally demanded.
What remains unclear is the endgame for the war—not just in terms of stopping the fighting, but in deciding control over territory. The assumption is that Ukraine will retain the Donbas region, as half of its rare earth minerals are located there.
But there are major questions left unanswered. Will Ukraine have full control over how it spends the remaining 50% of its resource revenues? Will other countries that provided aid demand a share of the profits?
Slovakia’s nationalist leader Andrej Danko, following Trump’s lead, has already suggested that Ukraine should repay Slovakia’s $3.5 billion contribution. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may soon make a similar demand.
How long will Ukraine be expected to fund this account? Who will develop the mines? When will raw materials actually be extracted? Who will protect the US investment?
Meanwhile, Russia continues its war effort. While Moscow initially welcomed Trump’s shift in policy, it now appears unsettled by this new development.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Europe of interfering in peace talks. He stated that Russia would not allow European peacekeepers in Ukraine and insisted that Ukraine’s military must be dismantled.
Most significantly, Lavrov declared, “There will be no cessation of the war in Ukraine along the contact line.”
If Trump wants to establish control over Donbas’s mineral wealth, he may soon have to decide whether he’s willing to fight for it. If he backs Ukraine with enough military aid, they will be more than willing to fight that battle on his behalf to reclaim all of their occupied land.
The question remains: Is Trump, the self-styled Don of the Donbas, truly prepared to assert his claim?