In the Middle East, a great geopolitical gamble is being played. And the masters of this game are Trump and Putin. On one hand, you have Trump helping out Putin end the war in Ukraine. On the other, you have Putin rising to the occasion to help Trump end the tussle with Iran. And by Iran, I also mean Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis: the triple H of the Middle East.
According to recent reports, Russia has expressed interest in brokering a peace deal between Iran and US. A spokesperson for the Kremlin told Bloomberg: “Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations.” He added, “Moscow is willing to do everything in its power to achieve this.”
This is a big announcement. Till now, Trump was looking focused on his “maximum pressure” campaign. Just last month, Trump signed an executive order which said Washington would ramp up sanctions on Iran, aiming to disrupt its nuclear program, conventional missile deployment, and network of regional proxy groups.
Before that, Iran received major threats from Israel as well. For instance, the Israeli foreign minister recently warned that a “military option” was on the table against Iran.
Even before becoming the US president, Trump had declared he would allow Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites.
But in February everything changed. Putin’s foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov has declared Washington and Moscow held talks on Iran, along with Ukraine. Officials from both sides met in Saudi Arabia last month and also discussed Iran.
Iranian media has also reported on this. One report said the Kremlin itself contacted the supreme national security council of Iran and conveyed that Putin was interested in enabling talks between Tehran and Washington DC.
As per an official in Tehran, the White House clash between Zelenskyy and Trump set an alarm bell ringing for Iran. It was a signal that negotiations with Trump can become tricky and can take an unexpected, explosive turn.
At this point of time, Iran is seemingly also looking for a mediator. And here he is: Vladimir Putin of Russia.
There is a high level of distrust right now between Trump and Iran. For instance, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last month said Trump can’t be trusted and Iran would not be pressured into negotiations. But through Russia’s involvement, that sense of lack of trustworthiness will definitely go away.
And Russia’s involvement here also means one more thing: And there is never going to be a war between Iran and Israel. As long as Putin and Trump are involved, Israel won’t be given a greenlight to wage an all-out war on Iranian sites. At the same time, Putin also won’t allow Iran or its proxies, the triple H, to harm or target any American or Israeli interests.
Let’s be honest. Iran is at its weakest than ever. At this point of time, the country’s biggest priority is to prevent its political system from collapsing. Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen are no longer Iran’s biggest priorities. Russia can help Iran stabilise, if it gives up its nuclear dream, stop funding terrorists around the region. In exchange, it can get the sanctions lifted and see its economy flourishing again.
That’s the deal right there for Iran to grab. Let’s see what would prevail eventually: Sanity, common sense or war-mongering, destruction.