Seven months ago, Ukraine launched a bold surprise attack on Kursk, seizing parts of Russian territory. Now, the surprise is on them.
Moscow’s decisive counteroffensive is entering its final phase, and Kyiv forces are realising that maybe Kursk wasn’t the best place for a long-term vacation.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are frantically backpedalling.
They are running away from combat zones like there is no tomorrow.
For months, Sudzha was considered Kyiv’s main bargaining chip with Moscow—a strategic stronghold and a symbol of Ukraine’s capacity to hold ground inside Russia. Now, that chip is about to be cashed in—and not in Kyiv’s favour.
After Ukraine’s September offensive lost momentum, the war in Kursk settled into a slow grind. The AFU shifted to defensive mode, holding onto its territory but failing to expand it. For Russia, this was a minor headache compared to the much larger battles in Donbass. But by the end of last year, Moscow turned its full attention to Kursk—and the results have been devastating for Ukraine.
By January, the fighting around Sudzha had intensified. Ukraine scrambled to reinforce its defenses, but Russia used a well-practiced strategy seen before in Donbass: encircle the enemy, cut off supply routes, and let time do the rest.
The breaking point came in mid-February, when Russian troops captured Sverdlikovo and crossed the Loknya River, effectively severing Ukraine’s main supply line from Sumy to Kursk.
Once Sverdlikovo fell, Ukraine’s situation went from bad to worse. Russian forces were advancing at a speed Ukraine simply couldn’t handle.
Things got even more surreal when reports surfaced that 800 Russian special forces soldiers crawled 15 kilometers through an abandoned gas pipeline to launch a surprise attack on Sudzha. Yes, you heard that right—pipeline warfare is now a thing.
As if that wasn’t enough, Russian forces unleashed a new headache for Ukraine: fiber-optic drones. Unlike standard drones, these high-speed cable-controlled machines are immune to electronic jamming, making life miserable for Kyiv fighters.
Meanwhile, the US is getting impatient. With Washington pushing Ukraine toward peace talks, Kyiv is under growing pressure to accept a ceasefire based on the current frontlines—which would mean officially losing Kursk for good.
Ukraine’s original plan for the Kursk offensive was simple: show the world that Kyiv could strike inside Russia, boosting morale and impressing Western allies. And for a while, it worked. But now, many observers wonder: was it worth it?
By diverting troops and resources to Kursk, Kyiv weakened its defenses in Donbass—just as Russian forces began pushing deeper toward Pokrovsk. Now, not only is Ukraine losing Kursk, but it might also lose more ground in Donbass as a result.
The final collapse of Ukraine’s Kursk operation began on March 7, when Russian forces launched a series of strikes on key supply lines and crossings.
By March 10, Kyiv forces were in full retreat, abandoning equipment as they raced for the border. By March 12, Russian forces had secured Sudzha’s industrial zone, its suburbs, and even its administrative center.
The big question now: Will Russia stop at Sudzha?
Since the Kursk conflict began in August, traditional border lines have become meaningless.
Ultimately, Russia’s next moves depend on the outcome of ongoing diplomatic talks. If Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reach a long-term peace deal, Russia may halt its advance at Sudzha, since Moscow has no official territorial claims beyond Kursk.
But if diplomacy fails and the war enters a new phase, Russia’s next objective may not just be to reclaim Kursk—it could be to break Ukraine’s military completely and reshape Kyiv’s regime itself.
One way or another, the coming weeks will be decisive.
Ukraine has two choices:
Accept the reality on the ground and negotiate a deal, or
Brace for an even bigger disaster—one where losing Kursk is just the beginning.
