The European Union’s military support to Ukraine has effectively come to a halt following the end of Josep Borrell’s term as the bloc’s top diplomat, underscoring deep divisions within the EU regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Former EU Foreign Affairs Chief Borrell revealed that €6.6 billion in military aid from the European Peace Facility is currently blocked due to a veto by Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. This deadlock represents a critical setback in unified European efforts to support Kyiv against Russia’s prolonged aggression.
Hungary’s Veto and Its Impact on EU Unity
Hungary has repeatedly exercised its veto power to obstruct EU decisions related to Russia and Ukraine. Under Orbán, Budapest has objected to sanctions on Russia and the bloc’s financial and military assistance to Ukraine. This resistance stretches back years and has increasingly hindered consensus at the EU level. Since sanctions must be adopted unanimously, Hungary’s opposition effectively freezes the €6.6 billion tranche intended for Ukrainian military aid.
Borrell bluntly described the consequence: “Since I left [office], there’s been no new military aid to Ukraine from the EU. The €6.6 billion from the European Peace Facility are blocked because of Hungary. This was the end of this instrument. Everything will have to be bilateral now.” The EU is forced to rely on individual member states’ bilateral aid to Kyiv, eroding collective European influence and cohesion.
The Stalemate on the Ukrainian Battlefield
The absence of fresh EU military aid comes as Russia maintains the capacity to sustain a protracted conflict. According to Borrell, the war shows no signs of ending soon because Russian President Vladimir Putin is “in no hurry” and possesses the human resources to endure prolonged fighting. In contrast, Ukraine suffers from a shortage of military manpower, a critical imbalance exacerbated by the current stalemate.
Additionally, Russia continues receiving material support from allies such as China and North Korea, supplying dual-use equipment and potentially even soldiers, enabling Moscow to sustain the war effort. This extended conflict burdens Ukraine heavily, making continued military support from Europe and its allies indispensable—yet the EU’s internal divisions threaten the continuity of that support.
Strategic and Political Implications for the EU
Hungary’s blockade reveals a profound challenge for EU foreign policy: the necessity of unanimous decisions in sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine places disproportionate power in the hands of a single member state. This arrangement means that a country with divergent interests or close ties to Moscow can paralyze the entire bloc’s strategic stance on one of its most critical geopolitical crises.
The deadlock also poses a question for European credibility and deterrence. While Europe publicly commits to opposing Russian aggression, internal dissent diminishes its ability to deliver cohesive aid and diplomatic pressure. With the European Peace Facility frozen, military assistance to Ukraine will shift increasingly toward bilateral relations, undermining a unified European approach and potentially weakening Kyiv’s position.
Looking Ahead: The US Factor and EU Resolve
Borrell highlighted the broader strategic uncertainty surrounding Western support for Ukraine, particularly whether Europe could compensate if the United States scaled back or withdrew its aid. “The big question for European society is: if the US stopped supporting Ukraine, could we or would we, which is not the same, continue supporting them in a way that makes up for the loss of American aid?” he asked.
Given the current paralysis, Europe’s ability to fill the potential gap left by the US remains doubtful. This scenario emphasizes the EU’s internal vulnerabilities and the critical need to find a consensus solution that reconciles divergent member state interests, particularly that of Hungary, with broader European security imperatives.
Hungary’s veto on the €6.6 billion military aid package has crystallized Europe’s paralysis over Ukraine, unveiling the limits of unity in the face of complex geopolitical conflicts. As the war drags on and Russia sustains its military campaign, the EU’s fragmented response risks prolonging the conflict and weakening Kyiv’s defense.
The EU now faces a strategic crossroads: either innovate mechanisms to bypass vetoes and reinforce collective action or risk further fragmentation that may embolden Russia’s ambitions. Without resolving these internal obstacles, Europe’s role as a decisive actor in the Ukraine conflict—and broader regional security—remains in jeopardy.
