On August 8, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump will host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House in a landmark summit aimed at finalizing a framework peace agreement between the long-warring nations.
Coming on the heels of over three decades of conflict centered on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the talks mark the most ambitious attempt yet by Washington to reshape the strategic contours of the South Caucasus.
While a final peace treaty remains elusive, the anticipated signing of a memorandum of intent could pave the way for unprecedented regional stability—with ripple effects extending across Eurasia’s energy corridors, security alliances, and global power dynamics.
A Conflict Rooted in History
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh traces back to the twilight years of the Soviet Union. Though internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, the region’s Armenian-majority population declared independence in 1991 with Yerevan’s backing. This led to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994), ending with Armenian control over the region and surrounding areas.
However, Azerbaijan reversed those losses in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020, regaining much of its territory. A swift military operation in 2023 led to the dissolution of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians to Armenia—reshaping demographics and political calculations alike.
Despite reaching a draft peace agreement in March 2025, core issues remain unresolved: constitutional changes demanded by Baku, Armenia’s rejection of the controversial “Zangezur Corridor,” and public backlash within both countries.
Trump’s Diplomatic Gambit
President Trump’s personal involvement in the Washington summit underscores his desire to secure a high-profile foreign policy win. In line with his past initiatives in the Middle East and Africa, Trump has positioned himself as a global mediator, and the South Caucasus offers an ideal theater for such ambitions. A successful peace memorandum could boost his standing on the world stage—and possibly his chances at securing the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump’s strategy includes a bold, controversial proposal: allowing a U.S. private company to operate the Zangezur Corridor—a transit route through Armenia’s Syunik province that would link mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and, by extension, Turkey.
While this arrangement seeks to balance security and sovereignty concerns, Armenia has rejected any deal that compromises its territorial integrity. The White House has scheduled back-to-back meetings: Pashinyan at 2:30 p.m., Aliyev at 3:20 p.m., followed by a joint statement at 4:00 p.m.
Regional Power Interests
United States: Expanding Footprint
The Trump administration views peace in the South Caucasus as a strategic gateway to limit Russian and Iranian influence, stabilize critical energy corridors, and integrate the region into Western-aligned networks. Figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff have pushed hard to steer the region toward U.S.-backed frameworks. Additionally, the Zangezur Corridor could reinforce American commercial and geopolitical clout in a region traditionally seen as Russia’s backyard.
Russia: A Fractured Legacy
Once the region’s dominant broker, Russia has lost ground in the South Caucasus, especially following its prolonged war in Ukraine. Moscow’s failure to intervene meaningfully during Azerbaijan’s recent offensives has eroded its credibility with Armenia, its formal ally. Both Baku and Yerevan are now recalibrating away from the Kremlin, prompting concerns that Russia may seek to sabotage U.S.-led diplomacy to preserve its waning influence.
Turkey: Strategic Corridor Aspirations
Turkey is a key player behind Azerbaijan’s push for the Zangezur Corridor. For Ankara, the route promises direct connectivity with Central Asia and bolsters its pan-Turkic vision. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been actively engaged in pre-summit diplomacy. However, Armenia’s refusal to accept Turkish or Turkish-backed control over the corridor remains a sticking point.
Iran: Marginalized and Cautious
Iran opposes the corridor proposal, fearing it would reduce its relevance as a regional transit hub and further isolate it from economic ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Tehran has stressed the importance of respecting territorial sovereignty, amid fears that the corridor could facilitate increased Israeli and Western activity on its northern border.
Israel: Silent Stakeholder
Israel’s military and intelligence ties with Azerbaijan, particularly evident during the 2020 war, make it a significant but quiet stakeholder. A stable South Caucasus would serve Israel’s strategic goal of curbing Iranian influence while securing energy routes from Baku. Trump’s coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on broader regional strategies suggests a quiet alignment of interests behind the scenes.
Implications for Global Energy Markets
Azerbaijan remains a crucial energy supplier to Europe, especially as the continent reduces dependence on Russian gas. A peace deal could enhance the reliability of the Southern Gas Corridor and other export routes. Conversely, recent oil contamination scandals and increased U.S. scrutiny over Azerbaijani-Russian energy ties suggest a delicate balancing act ahead. Washington may use the talks to nudge Baku toward greater alignment with Western energy standards and transparency.
The Corridor Controversy: Sovereignty vs. Connectivity
The Zangezur Corridor encapsulates the summit’s most contentious debate. While Azerbaijan insists on a secure, extraterritorial link to Nakhchivan, Armenia views any such arrangement as a violation of its sovereignty. The U.S. plan for a leased, internationally managed corridor seeks to bridge this divide—but domestic pushback in Armenia is intense. Unverified reports suggesting the involvement of American private military contractors have further stoked fears of foreign control.
A deal on the corridor could unlock trade routes across Eurasia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia and China via the South Caucasus. Failure, however, could reignite tensions and risk drawing regional powers back into the fray.
Domestic Risks and Political Calculations
In Armenia, Pashinyan faces fierce domestic opposition. Nationalist groups and opposition parties warn that any concession on sovereignty could destabilize the government. Azerbaijan’s Aliyev, despite recent victories, must also balance internal expectations with external diplomatic realities. A failed summit could embolden hardliners in both countries and derail the fragile momentum for peace.
Peace in Sight, but Not Guaranteed
The August 8 summit at the White House may mark the closest Armenia and Azerbaijan have come to a sustainable peace since the 1990s. A memorandum of intent, while non-binding, could set the stage for a historic treaty that reshapes regional alignments and economic routes.
Yet deep-seated mistrust, conflicting geopolitical interests, and unresolved territorial issues still threaten to derail progress. President Trump’s ambitious push for a breakthrough reflects both personal political calculations and broader strategic aims. Whether he succeeds will depend not only on the goodwill of Pashinyan and Aliyev but also on the maneuvering of Moscow, Ankara, Tehran, and beyond.
The world will be watching Friday’s summit—not just for signatures, but for signs that one of the post-Soviet world’s most entrenched conflicts may finally be drawing to a close.
