Donald Trump has once again sent shockwaves through the global diplomatic and security establishment. In a recent interview and subsequent statements, the U.S. president claimed that several nations—including Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan—are conducting secret underground nuclear tests.
The assertion came as Trump announced that the United States would “immediately resume” its own nuclear weapons testing after a hiatus of more than three decades.
While the comments have stirred intense debate, they also raise an important question: Is there any credible evidence that these countries have secretly violated the global moratorium on nuclear testing?
Trump’s Explosive Claim
During an appearance on CBS News’ 60 Minutes, Trump said that while the U.S. has refrained from nuclear tests since 1992, other nations “test way underground where people don’t know exactly what’s happening.” He named Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan as the primary offenders. “They test, and we don’t,” he said. “We have to test. We can’t be the only country that doesn’t.”
Trump further justified his move by arguing that such testing was “necessary and appropriate” to ensure America’s nuclear arsenal remains modern and effective. He also alleged that the secrecy of other nations’ testing activities gave them an unfair advantage.
However, his comments have triggered a diplomatic stir — particularly his inclusion of Pakistan, which hasn’t conducted a known nuclear test since 1998.
A Look at the Facts: Has Any Testing Been Detected?
Despite Trump’s claims, scientific monitoring tells a different story. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) operates a sophisticated network of over 300 seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound stations across the globe that detect even minute nuclear explosions.
So far, no credible evidence has emerged suggesting that Russia, China, or Pakistan has carried out underground nuclear detonations in recent years.
In the case of China, experts note that while Beijing has conducted subcritical tests—experiments that do not cause a nuclear chain reaction—there is no proof of full-scale nuclear explosions. Such subcritical tests are technically allowed under the CTBT, which China has signed (though not yet ratified).
Russia, too, is a CTBT signatory and maintains a moratorium on nuclear testing. Western analysts periodically raise concerns about activities at Russia’s Novaya Zemlya testing site, but no seismic events consistent with nuclear explosions have been recorded there in recent years.
Pakistan, meanwhile, remains under similar scrutiny. Its last known nuclear tests were conducted in May 1998, days after India’s Pokhran-II detonations. Since then, there has been no seismic or radiological data suggesting renewed testing. Islamabad maintains that its nuclear program is purely defensive and operates under strict command and control protocols.
Diplomatic Repercussions
Trump’s remarks represent the first time a sitting U.S. president has publicly accused Pakistan of continuing underground nuclear testing. For Islamabad, this accusation—coming at a time of heightened U.S.-China tensions and Washington’s pivot toward India—could have significant diplomatic consequences.
Pakistan has not yet issued an official response. However, analysts suggest that any unverified claim by Washington could further strain U.S.-Pakistan relations, which have already cooled over the past decade due to disagreements over counterterrorism cooperation and Islamabad’s deepening ties with Beijing.
For China and Russia, Trump’s comments are being viewed through the lens of renewed great-power competition. Both nations are likely to dismiss the accusations as political posturing tied to Trump’s broader narrative of military parity and American resurgence.
The Real Motive Behind Trump’s Nuclear Revival
Trump’s push to resume U.S. nuclear testing—justified by claims of others’ secret violations—appears rooted more in strategic signaling than scientific necessity. Experts suggest that by invoking the specter of clandestine nuclear tests, Trump is seeking to justify a broader policy of nuclear modernization and deterrence.
The U.S. has already been investing heavily in updating its nuclear triad — land-based missiles, submarine-launched warheads, and strategic bombers. The revival of testing could strengthen the administration’s hand in negotiations over future arms control agreements with Russia and China, particularly as global nuclear tensions rise amid conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea.
Scientific Consensus vs. Political Rhetoric
Global scientific monitoring leaves little doubt: if any country had detonated a nuclear weapon underground, it would almost certainly have been detected. Even low-yield explosions are capable of producing seismic signals that global observatories can pick up and analyze within hours.
In this light, Trump’s claims appear to lack empirical backing. They instead serve as a political justification for reversing long-standing U.S. policy—a move that could weaken the global non-proliferation regime and invite other nations to resume testing.
As of now, there is no verifiable evidence that Pakistan, China, or Russia has conducted secret nuclear tests. Trump’s assertions, while headline-grabbing, remain unsubstantiated by science and international monitoring data.
If the U.S. does proceed with renewed testing, it risks reigniting a global arms race and undermining decades of progress under the CTBT framework. The coming months will reveal whether Trump’s statement was a prelude to a new nuclear era—or merely another rhetorical detonation in his campaign of strategic brinkmanship.