In a stunning turn of events that has rattled the Balkans and sent shockwaves through Moscow, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has authorized the export of weapons to NATO member states—a move widely interpreted as an indirect lifeline to Ukraine’s war effort. For a nation long seen as Russia’s steadfast ally in Europe, this marks a dramatic geopolitical shift with profound political, cultural, and electoral implications.
A Nation Torn Between East and West
Serbia’s relationship with Russia runs deeper than diplomacy. It is rooted in centuries of shared Slavic heritage, Orthodox Christianity, and mutual opposition to Western intervention. Moscow’s unwavering support during the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia and its repeated vetoes against Kosovo’s independence in the UN Security Council cemented its image as Serbia’s protector.
For many Serbs, Russia is not just a partner but a “brother nation.” A 2024 Ipsos survey found that over 50% of Serbs view Russia as Serbia’s closest ally, compared to just 15% for the EU. Moscow has invested heavily in Serbia’s energy sector, notably through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, and remains a key supplier of arms and political backing.
President Vučić, aware of these deep cultural ties, has long walked a tightrope between East and West—seeking EU membership while refusing to join Western sanctions against Moscow following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “Serbia will not send a single soldier or bullet to Ukraine,” he declared in 2023, winning praise at home for maintaining neutrality.
That balance, however, now appears to have shattered.
The Arms Deal That Changed Everything
In late October 2025, Serbia’s National Assembly passed legislation allowing arms exports to NATO countries, including ammunition, artillery shells, and anti-tank munitions. Officially, the government described it as a boost to Serbia’s €1 billion defense industry, which employs tens of thousands of workers.
Unofficially, analysts argue it is a backdoor route for supplying Ukraine. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that up to 20% of Ukraine’s artillery shells in 2024 came from Serbian stockpiles, sold to NATO states and rerouted to Kyiv.
During a televised address on November 2, Vučić defended his decision:
“Serbia will supply weapons to our NATO partners as per international agreements. It is not our business to track where those weapons end up.”
The remarks, meant to project sovereignty, only fueled speculation and outrage. Critics across the political spectrum accuse Vučić of bowing to EU pressure and betraying Serbia’s traditional alliance with Russia.
Protests and Political Fallout
The fallout has been swift and fierce. Since August 2025, mass protests have swept through Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš. Demonstrators carrying Serbian and Russian flags chanted “No to NATO Blood Money” and “Vučić—Putin’s Judas.”
Opposition leader Dragan Đilas of the Freedom and Justice Party condemned the move as “selling our brothers’ blood for EU favors.” Pro-Russian nationalists, environmental groups, and students have united under anti-government coalitions, intensifying pressure on Vučić as snap elections loom in 2026.
A violent episode on October 28 saw protesters storm Serbia’s National Assembly during a vote on the arms bill. Police cracked down with tear gas and mass arrests, drawing criticism from Amnesty International and other rights groups. While EU officials praised the “vibrant civic engagement,” they also signaled that Serbia’s path to EU membership depends on “further democratic reforms”—a remark many in Belgrade see as a veiled ultimatum.
Brussels’ Pressure and Vučić’s Dilemma
Behind Vučić’s controversial pivot lies immense European pressure. Serbia’s EU accession talks, stalled since 2014, have been revived in recent months. According to diplomatic sources in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell privately warned Vučić in September that Serbia’s alignment with Ukraine was a “precondition” for progress.
The economic stakes are high: over 60% of Serbian exports go to the EU, and remittances from Serbs working in EU countries are a vital part of the national economy. Serbia’s reliance on Russian gas has also become a strategic vulnerability amid global energy shifts.
For Vučić, the calculus is brutal — side with Moscow and risk isolation, or lean West and risk his domestic base. His strategy appears to favor pragmatism, but at a steep political cost.
Polls by Ninamedia in October 2025 show Vučić’s approval rating plunging from 55% in 2023 to 38%, largely due to the arms deal. Even within his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), fractures are emerging between pro-EU technocrats and nationalist loyalists.
The Pro-Russia Backlash
Serbia’s pro-Russian bloc is mobilizing fast. Clergy from the Serbian Orthodox Church, nationalist intellectuals, and retired generals have issued public rebukes. Social media has erupted with memes depicting Vučić as a puppet controlled by EU bureaucrats.
Former allies warn that the president’s pivot could mark the “end of his political dominance.” Rural voters—traditionally Vučić’s strongest base—are particularly angered, citing fears of losing cheap Russian gas and spiritual ties with Moscow.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, has reacted sharply. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on November 3:
“Serbia’s choices are its own, but history remembers collaborators.”
Russian media outlets such as RT and Sputnik have amplified anti-Vučić narratives, portraying the Serbian president as a Western pawn betraying his nation’s Orthodox roots.
A Test for the Balkans’ Future
The crisis transcends Serbia’s borders. It reflects the broader struggle for influence in the Balkans — a region where Russia, the EU, China, and the U.S. all compete for dominance. Neighboring countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly its Serb entity, Republika Srpska, are watching closely. A stronger pro-Western Serbia could shift regional dynamics, but also inflame separatist tensions.
For Ukraine, the influx of Serbian-made munitions provides a crucial boost amid stalled counteroffensives. For the EU, it’s a symbolic victory in the tug-of-war for Serbia’s loyalty. And for Russia, it’s an unmistakable warning that even its most dependable European friend is drifting away.
The Crossroads Ahead
As protests rage and political alliances fracture, Serbia stands at a historic crossroads. Vučić’s gamble could secure his country’s long-delayed EU integration — or destroy the nationalist foundation that has kept him in power for over a decade.
For many Serbs, the question is not just about weapons or diplomacy. It’s about who they are — and where they belong in a world divided between East and West.
In the shadow of Belgrade’s Saint Sava Cathedral and the memories of 1999’s NATO bombs, the debate over Serbia’s future is more than political — it is existential.
Whether Vučić’s decision is remembered as strategic realism or political surrender will depend on how Serbia’s people respond in the coming months. But one thing is certain: the Balkan balance has shifted once again, and its consequences will echo far beyond Belgrade.
