Germany is quietly preparing for a scenario it once believed belonged to the past: a direct war with Russia. Inside a triangle-shaped military compound in Berlin, a team of senior officers began drafting a classified 1,200-page war blueprint two and a half years ago. Today, that plan — Operation Plan Germany (OPLAN DEU) — has moved from theoretical exercise to active implementation.
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shattered Europe’s sense of security and triggered the continent’s fastest military buildup since World War II. Now, German officials warn that Moscow could be creating the option to strike NATO as early as 2029, with espionage, sabotage and airspace violations accelerating the sense of urgency.
A New Era of Total Defence
German planners stress that weapon stockpiles aren’t enough. “Just look at the map,” said Tim Stuchtey, director of the Brandenburg Institute for Society and Security. Any NATO counteraction against Russia would inevitably route through Germany, which sits at the centre of the alliance’s logistics chain.
OPLAN DEU is therefore designed as an “all-of-society” strategy — blending civilian agencies, private companies and the military far more deeply than anything seen since the Cold War. Germany would not be a front-line combatant, but rather the beating heart of NATO’s logistics system, responsible for feeding, supplying and transporting up to 800,000 NATO soldiers across its territory.
Yet the obstacles are significant: outdated bridges, chokepoint rail lines, a shrinking military and a web of peacetime regulations ill-suited for wartime demands.
Germany has lost the Cold War “muscle memory”, Deputy Defence Minister Nils Schmid warned. “We must relearn what we unlearnt. We have to drag people back from retirement to tell us how we did it back then.”
Exercises Expose Infrastructure Weaknesses
Recent drills show that Germany’s Achilles heel lies not only in weaponry, but in the mundane machinery of daily life.
In an autumn exercise in eastern Germany, defence contractor Rheinmetall built an entire field town — complete with barracks, fuel stations and drone security — within 14 days. The site supported 500 soldiers, highlighting industry’s growing role in Germany’s defence posture.
But the drills also exposed painful gaps:
Not enough space for vehicles, Land divided into disconnected parcels, Traffic bottlenecks that required a new traffic light just to move convoys, Security concerns requiring staff to be vetted for Russian and Chinese influence
Rheinmetall recently secured a €260 million contract to support NATO supply operations — a sign of the growing reliance on private logistics.
The most alarming vulnerabilities, however, are found within Germany’s infrastructure.
The Accident That Exposed a NATO Weak Spot
A seemingly minor event revealed just how fragile Europe’s military supply chain has become.
In February 2024, a cargo ship collided with a railway bridge over the Hunte River. It was the only rail link to the port of Nordenham — then the only terminal in Northern Europe capable of handling all ammunition shipments to Ukraine. Repairs took months. Another ship struck the temporary replacement bridge in July, causing further delays.
Though both incidents were ruled accidents, the impact was significant:
Ammunition shipments to Ukraine were delayed, Supplies had to be rerouted to Poland, NATO mobilised emergency planning teams overnight
Analysts warn that many European ports rely on single rail lines — a structural weakness Russia could exploit through sabotage or hybrid warfare.
Germany’s Infrastructure Crisis
During the Cold War, Germany built “dual-use” infrastructure — autobahns that doubled as runways, bridges designed for tanks, ports capable of rapid troop deployment. But post-1990 peace eroded that readiness. Berlin estimates:
20% of highways need major repairs, 25% of highway bridges require reinforcement, €15 billion is needed to upgrade ports, including €3 billion for dual-use military capability
Without major upgrades, NATO troop movement could face crippling detours and delays in a crisis.
A New Military Posture After the 2022 Invasion
Germany pivoted sharply after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a €100 billion rearmament fund, calling it a “Zeitenwende” — a historic turning point. The Bundeswehr formed a Territorial Command to oversee domestic defence and logistics.
Lieutenant General André Bodemann was tasked with drafting OPLAN DEU — a blueprint for moving refugees, reinforcements, ammunition and equipment through Germany during a war. The plan assumes Germany will face cyberattacks, drone harassment and sabotage from day one.
To prepare, the Bundeswehr is forging partnerships with: Police forces, Disaster relief agencies, Hospitals, Private port operators, Rail and autobahn authorities
Exercises like September’s Red Storm Bravo in Hamburg simulated NATO troops landing at port, facing drone attacks and protest blockades as they moved eastward.
In one case, mock protester glued themselves on the road. Soldiers were forbidden to intervene, police lacked the needed solvents, and the convoy was stranded for two hours, covering only six miles through the city. It was an embarrassing but instructive rehearsal.
Berlin Warns: Russia Preparing for NATO Conflict by 2029
As diplomatic efforts continue — including a revised U.S. peace proposal pushed by the Trump administration — Germany has issued a stark warning.
In a series of official statements, the German Foreign Office said:
“Russia is creating the option to wage war against NATO by 2029. Putin eyes the EU and NATO.”
Germany insists that any peace agreement must use the current front line as the baseline — warning the West against concessions that reward Russian aggression.
Diplomacy Doesn’t Stop the Bombs
Even as peace talks intensify, Russia has escalated its strikes.
• A major attack on Zaporizhzhia injured 12 and damaged several high-rise buildings.
• In Kyiv, overnight missile and drone barrages killed seven people and triggered apartment fires.
Thick smoke and explosions lit the night sky as residents took shelter in metro stations.
The war that began in February 2022 shows no sign of ending, even as political efforts try to reshape the battlefield.
Europe’s Wake-Up Call
Germany’s emerging war plan reflects a broader continental reckoning. European intelligence agencies increasingly believe Russia will regroup, rearm and refocus on NATO after any Ukraine ceasefire.
Berlin’s message is blunt: deterrence is now the only path to peace.
A senior German officer involved in drafting OPLAN DEU put it succinctly:
“The goal is to prevent war by making it clear to our enemies that if they attack us, they won’t be successful.”
Whether Europe can prepare in time — and whether Russia ultimately tests NATO’s resolve — remains the defining security question of the decade.
