For more than fifty years, the eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus has remained divided — politically, militarily, and emotionally. A United Nations–patrolled buffer zone slices through the island, separating the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus in the south from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north, a state recognised only by Turkey.
For decades, this division appeared permanent. Numerous peace talks failed, mutual distrust deepened, and generations grew up knowing only separation. However, recent political developments have once again revived a long-dormant question: is Cyprus moving closer to reunification?
Roots of the Cyprus Problem
Cyprus’s division is rooted in its colonial and post-colonial history. The island was part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries before coming under British control in the late 19th century. Cyprus gained independence in 1960 under a power-sharing constitution designed to balance Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot interests.
However, the arrangement proved fragile. Greek Cypriots largely sought Enosis — union with Greece — while Turkish Cypriots feared marginalisation and favoured partition or strong external guarantees. Communal violence erupted in the early 1960s, effectively breaking down the power-sharing system.
The crisis reached its turning point in 1974, when a Greek-backed coup aimed at uniting Cyprus with Greece triggered a Turkish military intervention. Turkey occupied the northern third of the island, citing its role as a guarantor power. Massive population displacement followed, with Greek Cypriots moving south and Turkish Cypriots relocating north. The ceasefire line, later known as the Green Line, became a de facto border.
Failed Attempts at Peace
Since 1974, numerous efforts have been made to reunite Cyprus. The most notable was the 2004 Annan Plan, proposed by the United Nations. While Turkish Cypriots approved the plan in a referendum, Greek Cypriots rejected it overwhelmingly, fearing security risks and political instability.
Another significant opportunity emerged in 2017, when talks involving Greece, Turkey, Britain, and the UN nearly reached agreement. Yet once again, negotiations collapsed, primarily over the issue of security guarantees and the continued presence of Turkish troops on the island.
Each failure hardened attitudes on both sides, reinforcing the perception that Cyprus’s division was irreversible.
A Political Shift in the North
In late 2025, the political landscape in Northern Cyprus changed significantly. A pro-reunification Turkish Cypriot leader, Tufan Erhürman, won elections with a strong mandate. Unlike his predecessor, who supported a permanent two-state solution aligned with Ankara’s position, Erhürman openly advocated for renewed talks based on a federal model.
His election has revived optimism among diplomats and observers who see it as an opportunity to restart negotiations that have been stalled for years. However, expectations remain cautious. Northern Cyprus has limited executive power, and Turkey continues to play a decisive role in shaping policy there.
Turkey’s Central Role
Turkey remains the most influential external actor in the Cyprus dispute. It maintains tens of thousands of troops in Northern Cyprus and insists on retaining security guarantees for Turkish Cypriots. Ankara has increasingly promoted a two-state solution, arguing that decades of failed negotiations prove reunification is unrealistic.
At the same time, supporters of renewed talks argue that a federal Cyprus could benefit Turkey by easing international criticism, improving relations with the European Union, and stabilising the eastern Mediterranean. Whether Turkey is willing to soften its position remains uncertain.
Greek Cypriot Hesitation
From the perspective of the Greek Cypriot community, reunification offers fewer immediate incentives. The Republic of Cyprus enjoys full international recognition, EU membership, and relative economic stability. Many Greek Cypriots fear that reunification could legitimise Turkey’s military presence or create a dysfunctional political system with excessive external influence.
President Nicos Christodoulides has expressed support for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation but firmly rejects Turkish security guarantees. This fundamental disagreement continues to block progress.
Geopolitics and Energy Tensions
Cyprus’s strategic location further complicates the issue. The island lies close to the Middle East and North Africa, making it geopolitically valuable for NATO and Western powers. Britain maintains sovereign military bases on the island, while regional tensions involving Turkey, Israel, and Greece intersect with the Cyprus problem.
Adding to the complexity are offshore natural gas discoveries. These resources could transform Cyprus’s economy but have instead intensified disputes. Greek Cypriots have moved forward with Western energy companies, while Turkey insists Turkish Cypriots must share control and revenues. Energy, once seen as a potential incentive for cooperation, has become another point of contention.
The Challenge of Time
More than half a century after the island’s division, demographics pose another obstacle. Most Cypriots today were born after 1974 and have never experienced a united country. For many young Greek Cypriots, reunification feels unnecessary and abstract. For Turkish Cypriots, however, it represents an escape from international isolation and economic dependency.
This imbalance in public perception makes political compromise harder to sell domestically.
Is Reunification Realistic?
Despite renewed dialogue and cautious optimism, experts remain sceptical about full reunification. The core disputes that derailed talks in 2004 and 2017 — security, governance, and trust — remain unresolved.
The most realistic outcome, analysts suggest, may be a flexible federal arrangement rather than a fully unified state. Under such a model, defence and foreign policy would be managed centrally, while constituent regions retain significant autonomy.
Even this scenario would require major concessions from all sides — concessions that political leaders may struggle to justify to their electorates.
Cyprus appears to be taking a tentative step toward renewed dialogue, but reunification remains a distant prospect. While political changes in the north have reopened diplomatic space, entrenched positions, regional rivalries, and public scepticism continue to stand in the way.
For now, Cyprus remains an island suspended between hope and history — united geographically, but divided politically — with its future still uncertain.
