On December 30, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent Fox News interview sparked intense debate about the trajectory of Russia’s nearly four-year war against Ukraine. In the interview, Zelenskyy claimed that 2025 marked the first year Russia’s military stopped growing in size, with monthly recruitment numbers roughly equal to battlefield losses. He expressed hope that this demographic pressure could force an end to the conflict in 2026, absent a politically risky full mobilization by Vladimir Putin.
“We have to understand — the number of their soldiers is decreasing,” Zelenskyy said. “This year, 2025, is the first time that the number of their army has stopped increasing. So, we think 2026 will stop the war. Otherwise, Putin will decide to mobilize people.” He noted that Russia had previously signed contracts with around 43,000 volunteers per month, but in 2025, recruitment balanced out irretrievable losses for the first time.
These remarks, made amid ongoing U.S.-brokered peace talks involving President Donald Trump, reflect Kyiv’s strategy to highlight Russia’s vulnerabilities while pushing for stronger Western support. But how accurate is Zelenskyy’s assessment, and does it signal a genuine turning point?
Russia’s Manpower Challenges: Stagnation or Sustainability?
Zelenskyy’s claim aligns with some Western and Ukrainian intelligence estimates suggesting Russia’s volunteer-based recruitment system is straining under the weight of high casualties. Ukraine estimates Russian losses at over 800,000 killed or wounded since February 2022, with monthly irretrievable losses potentially reaching 30,000-40,000 in intense periods. If recruitment hovers around that figure, net growth would indeed stall.
Independent analyses, such as those from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), support the notion of mounting pressures. Russia has relied on high financial incentives—regional bonuses sometimes exceeding $50,000—to attract volunteers, including prisoners, foreigners, and economically disadvantaged citizens. However, reports indicate diminishing returns: recruitment offices struggle to meet targets despite escalating payouts, and the system is inflating Russia’s war economy unsustainably.
Yet, Russian officials paint a different picture. In late December 2025, former President Dmitry Medvedev claimed the military recruited over 417,000 contract soldiers that year, surpassing goals. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov confirmed Russia met its 403,000 target early and plans 409,000 for 2026, asserting Moscow can sustain recruitment “for a long time” due to its population and resources.
The discrepancy likely stems from definitions: Russian figures often include all contract signings (potentially counting re-enlistments or short-term deals), while Ukrainian/Western assessments focus on net frontline additions after accounting for casualties, desertions, and rotations. ISW notes Russia is preparing for partial reserve call-ups in 2026, including compulsory “military assemblies” for inactive reservists—a step short of full mobilization but indicative of volunteer pool exhaustion.
Putin has avoided another large-scale mobilization since the chaotic 300,000-person call-up in September 2022, which triggered domestic unrest and emigration. A new one risks political instability, especially as public support for the war wanes amid economic strains.
Battlefield Reality: Grinding Advances, No Breakthroughs
Despite manpower debates, Russia maintains numerical superiority and continues to make slow, costly gains. In 2025, Russian forces captured thousands of square kilometers, primarily in Donetsk Oblast, through attritional “meat grinder” tactics. Advances average 14 square kilometers per day, per some estimates—enough for incremental progress but far from operational breakthroughs.
ISW assessments from late 2025 warn that, without drastic changes like full mobilization, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate in 2026 if Western aid to Ukraine persists at current levels. Russian units are optimized for positional warfare, not maneuver, and face equipment shortages despite refurbished Soviet stocks.
Ukraine, meanwhile, grapples with its own recruitment woes, lowered conscription ages, and reliance on Western arms. Zelenskyy has acknowledged Kyiv cannot win without U.S. support, emphasizing security guarantees in recent peace proposals.
Diplomatic Context: Hope Amid Skepticism
Zelenskyy’s comments coincide with intensified diplomacy. A December 28, 2025, meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump at Mar-a-Lago yielded progress on a 20-point peace framework, including potential demilitarized zones in Donbas and joint management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Trump described a deal as “maybe very close,” while Zelenskyy stressed ironclad guarantees.
Russia, however, rejects key elements, insisting on territorial concessions and Ukraine’s neutrality. Putin has ordered continued offensives, including in Zaporizhzhia, signaling no immediate willingness to halt.
Skeptics view Zelenskyy’s 2026 prediction as optimistic rhetoric—similar to past claims of Russian collapse that didn’t materialize. Pro-Russian commentators dismiss it as propaganda to bolster aid requests. Yet, demographic realities bite: Russia’s working-age population shrinks annually, and sustained 30,000+ monthly losses are unsustainable indefinitely without coercion.
A Pivotal Year Ahead?
As 2025 closes, the war remains a brutal stalemate. Zelenskyy’s assertion underscores a potential vulnerability: Russia’s aversion to mobilization could create an opening for negotiations if battlefield costs mount and Western resolve holds. But with Russia recruiting hundreds of thousands annually and adapting through reserves, the conflict could drag into 2027 or beyond.
Ultimately, ending the war in 2026 hinges less on manpower math than political will—in Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and European capitals. Zelenskyy’s words serve as both analysis and appeal: pressure Russia now, or face a prolonged fight. Whether 2026 brings peace or escalation remains uncertain, but the manpower crunch adds urgency to diplomatic efforts.
