The global security landscape is entering one of its most uncertain and dangerous phases in decades. With the expiration of the New START nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, and fresh U.S. allegations that China may have conducted covert nuclear weapons tests, fears of a renewed global arms race are intensifying.
For the first time in more than half a century, there are no legally binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest atomic powers. At the same time, accusations of secret nuclear activity are deepening mistrust among major powers. Together, these developments are raising alarm among policymakers, security analysts, and citizens worldwide.
The End of New START
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START, officially expired in early 2026. Signed in 2010 and implemented in 2011, the agreement limited the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems that both the United States and Russia could maintain. It also included verification measures such as inspections and data exchanges, which helped reduce the risk of misunderstandings and miscalculations.
For more than a decade, the treaty functioned as a stabilizing mechanism, even during periods of intense political and military tension between Washington and Moscow. With its expiration, that safety net has disappeared. There are now no caps, no inspections, and no formal rules governing the strategic nuclear forces of the two largest nuclear powers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia will continue to act in a “responsible” and measured manner, but Moscow has made clear that it does not support an automatic renewal of the treaty under current conditions. Meanwhile, the United States has taken a different stance, arguing that any future arms control framework must include China.
This difference in approach has led to a diplomatic stalemate. Russia favors renewing limits first and discussing broader security issues later. The United States insists that a treaty excluding China no longer reflects modern strategic realities. China, for its part, maintains that it should not be drawn into bilateral arms reduction agreements between Washington and Moscow.
Allegations of Secret Chinese Nuclear Tests
Adding to the tension are U.S. claims that China has conducted secret, yield-producing nuclear weapons tests in recent years. According to American officials, these tests may have been concealed using techniques designed to reduce the seismic signals typically used to detect underground nuclear explosions. One alleged test reportedly took place in 2020.
If verified, such activity would represent a serious breach of trust and could undermine confidence in the global systems designed to monitor nuclear testing. China has strongly denied the allegations, calling them unfounded and accusing the United States of exaggerating threats to justify expanding its own military posture.
Neither the United States nor China has ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, though both have publicly declared moratoriums on nuclear explosive testing. Disputes over compliance with these voluntary commitments are now adding another layer of suspicion to an already strained global security environment.
Japan’s Historical Warning
Public anxiety over rising nuclear risks is particularly visible in Japan, the only country to have experienced atomic bombings in wartime. Survivors and relatives of victims from Hiroshima and Nagasaki have voiced deep concern about the erosion of arms control and the growing hostility among nuclear powers.
Their warnings are rooted not in abstract strategy but in lived experience — memories of destroyed cities, radiation sickness, and long-term human suffering. Demonstrations and public appeals emphasize the belief that when nuclear powers stop communicating, ordinary people face the greatest danger.
The Challenge of Broader Arms Control
Efforts to build a new nuclear agreement face a complex reality. If China is included in future negotiations, other nuclear-armed states may also demand a seat at the table. Countries such as India, Pakistan, France, the United Kingdom, Israel, and North Korea all possess nuclear capabilities and have distinct security concerns.
The more nations involved, the harder it becomes to reach consensus. Different regional threats, military doctrines, and political priorities complicate the search for common ground. Some experts argue that extending New START temporarily could have preserved stability while broader talks took shape. Instead, the world now faces a period without any replacement framework.
A Critical Moment of Uncertainty
The current danger does not stem from an immediate desire for nuclear war but from the growing risk of miscalculation. Without inspections, every military development can appear threatening. Without treaties, routine modernization efforts may be interpreted as aggressive escalation. Without dialogue, fear and suspicion fill the gaps.
History has shown that nuclear crises often arise from misunderstandings rather than deliberate intent. As transparency declines and tensions rise, the margin for error becomes thinner.
Whether this moment marks the beginning of a new arms race or serves as a wake-up call for renewed diplomacy remains uncertain. What is clear is that the guardrails that once helped manage nuclear rivalry are fading, trust is eroding, and the need for communication has never been more urgent.