Global nuclear security is facing one of its most uncertain moments in decades. The expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia, combined with new American allegations that China may have secretly conducted nuclear weapons tests, has intensified fears of a renewed nuclear arms race and rising geopolitical instability.
With the world’s major nuclear powers divided and trust eroding, experts warn that the guardrails preventing atomic escalation are weakening at a dangerous time.
End of the New START Treaty
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) was the last remaining arms control agreement limiting the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. Since entering into force in 2011, it capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems while providing for inspections and data exchanges that helped maintain transparency.
Its expiration means there are now no legally binding limits on the number of long-range nuclear weapons deployed by the two largest nuclear powers. For the first time in over half a century, Washington and Moscow are operating without a formal strategic arms control framework.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will behave in a “responsible” manner, Moscow has not agreed to extend the treaty without broader discussions on global security. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have made clear that any future nuclear arms control deal must include China.
Why the U.S. Wants China Included
A major sticking point in nuclear diplomacy is the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal. While China still possesses fewer nuclear weapons than the United States or Russia, its stockpile is growing, and Beijing is modernizing its missile systems.
U.S. leaders argue that arms control agreements limited to Washington and Moscow no longer reflect today’s strategic realities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized that a 21st-century nuclear framework must involve China, given its increasing capabilities.
However, China has resisted joining such negotiations, saying its arsenal remains much smaller and that the United States and Russia should first make deeper reductions themselves.
Allegations of Secret Chinese Nuclear Tests
Tensions escalated further after the United States accused China of conducting covert yield-producing nuclear tests in recent years. According to U.S. officials, China may have used sophisticated techniques to conceal underground nuclear explosions, reducing their seismic detectability.
One alleged test reportedly took place in 2020. If confirmed, such actions would raise serious concerns about compliance with long-standing nuclear testing moratoriums.
China has firmly denied these claims, calling them false and accusing Washington of exaggerating threats to justify military expansion. The accusations have added another layer of distrust between the world’s major powers.
Although neither the United States nor China has ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), both have publicly committed to voluntary moratoriums on nuclear explosive testing. Allegations of hidden tests could undermine confidence in the global system meant to monitor nuclear activity.
Global Anxiety and Public Reaction
Public concern over rising nuclear tensions is especially visible in Japan, the only country to have suffered atomic bombings in war. Survivors and relatives of victims from Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been vocal in calling for renewed arms control efforts. Demonstrations highlight fears that the erosion of treaties and growing distrust could increase the risk of nuclear catastrophe.
For many in Japan, nuclear weapons are not abstract strategic tools but symbols of human devastation. Their warnings carry emotional and historical weight in global debates about nuclear policy.
Risk of a New Nuclear Arms Race
Security analysts warn that the combination of expired treaties, growing arsenals, and reduced transparency could spark a new arms race. Without inspections and verified limits, countries may rely on worst-case assumptions about rivals’ capabilities.
This environment increases the danger of miscalculation. During periods of tension, misunderstandings about military movements or technological developments could escalate rapidly without clear communication channels.
The Challenge of a Multilateral Treaty
Future nuclear arms control is likely to be more complicated than past agreements. Beyond the United States, Russia, and China, other nuclear-armed states such as India, Pakistan, France, the United Kingdom, North Korea, and Israel would have stakes in any global framework.
Reaching consensus among so many nations with different security concerns could prove extremely difficult. Still, many experts argue that rebuilding some form of arms control is essential to reducing long-term nuclear risks.
A Critical Moment for Global Security
The expiration of New START and the controversy surrounding China’s nuclear activities signal a turning point. Whether this moment leads to a dangerous period of nuclear competition or renewed diplomatic efforts will depend on the willingness of major powers to return to negotiations.
What remains clear is that nuclear stability depends on communication, transparency, and restraint. Without them, the risk of misunderstanding grows — and in the nuclear age, even small miscalculations can have enormous consequences.
