Europe’s traditional political engine — the Franco-German alliance — is losing steam. In its place, a new power dynamic is emerging that could significantly reshape the European Union’s future. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is increasingly aligning with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, forming a partnership that is raising eyebrows across Brussels and putting French President Emmanuel Macron on the defensive.
Their growing cooperation signals more than diplomatic convenience. It reflects a strategic shift in how Europe’s largest economies are positioning themselves on trade, defense, industry, and relations with the United States.
Why the Franco-German Axis is Weakening
For decades, Paris and Berlin set the direction of the European project. Major EU reforms — from the euro to defense coordination — traditionally began with Franco-German compromise. But that partnership has been strained in recent years.
Berlin has grown frustrated with Paris over trade policy, particularly resistance to the long-awaited Mercosur trade agreement between the EU and South American nations. Germany views the deal as critical for boosting industrial exports, while France has been more protectionist, citing concerns about farmers and environmental standards.
Defense cooperation has also suffered turbulence, with disagreements over joint military projects and industrial control. These disputes have created space for new alignments inside the EU.
Enter the Merz–Meloni Partnership
Merz and Meloni, both right-leaning leaders with strong Atlanticist instincts, have found common ground at a time when Europe faces economic stagnation, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty in transatlantic relations.
Their cooperation is expanding rapidly:
Defense Industry Collaboration: German and Italian defense firms are already working together on land systems and military platforms, with new agreements expected to deepen that partnership.
Industrial Revival Strategy: Berlin and Rome are jointly pushing for an EU-wide strategy to strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, cut regulation, and boost exports.
Trade Alignment: Both governments strongly back the Mercosur trade deal and want faster progress on global trade agreements to support European industry.
Together, they present themselves as leaders of Europe’s “industrial core,” a label that subtly sidelines France and redefines who drives EU economic policy.
A Shared Approach to Washington
Another key factor behind the alliance is their similar strategy toward the United States. Both leaders prefer a pragmatic, low-drama relationship with Washington, especially amid renewed political turbulence there.
Rather than confrontational rhetoric, Berlin and Rome are emphasizing stability in transatlantic ties, NATO cooperation, and economic coordination. This contrasts with Macron’s more assertive vision of European “strategic autonomy,” which sometimes places Paris at odds with U.S. leadership.
The Merz–Meloni approach signals that parts of Europe are prioritizing immediate security and trade interests over grand geopolitical rebalancing.
Political Chemistry — and Political Survival
Personal rapport has also played a role. Officials from both sides describe the Merz–Meloni relationship as efficient and pragmatic, focused on deliverables rather than grandstanding.
Domestic politics reinforce this convergence. Meloni has moderated her image internationally while maintaining a firm stance on migration and national interests. Meanwhile, Merz has moved Germany’s political center of gravity rightward on issues like border control and economic competitiveness.
This ideological overlap makes cooperation smoother than Berlin’s increasingly tense interactions with Paris.
But It’s Not a Perfect Marriage
Despite the warm rhetoric, deep structural differences remain.
Italy traditionally favors looser EU fiscal rules to allow higher public spending, while Germany has long championed budget discipline. Rome also lacks Berlin’s financial firepower for large defense investments, meaning it may still look to EU-level funding mechanisms that Germany views cautiously.
On some security and spending questions, Italy’s interests can align more closely with France than Germany. This suggests the Merz–Meloni axis may be tactical rather than transformational.
What This Means for Europe
Even if temporary, this shift matters. EU power has always depended on coalitions among its largest states. A Germany-Italy alignment changes voting dynamics, policy priorities, and the balance of influence in Brussels.
It could lead to:
Faster movement on trade agreements
Stronger focus on industrial competitiveness
A more Atlanticist tone in EU foreign policy
Reduced French leverage in shaping EU strategy
For Macron, this presents a diplomatic challenge. For Merz and Meloni, it’s an opportunity to redefine Europe’s leadership structure at a time of global uncertainty.
The Franco-German engine may not be broken — but for now, another duo is steering the wheel.
