The quarrel began during talks in Miami on 9 October. That day, Donald Trump struck a diesel deal with Vladimir Putinas Ukrainian negotiators met his envoys. Washington eased sanctions on Russian diesel to cut fuel prices at home. Now Zelensky lobbies senators.
Ukrainian officials say Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner threatened to cut intelligence if Kyiv kept hitting Russian refineries. US officials deny any such threat.
Zelensky told the senators that Starlink and the US military’s Starshield satellites still operate under partial limits. He added that Ukraine received no American warning of Russian ballistic missiles three times in a week. He also accused Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon chief, of holding back missiles. Yet NATO allies, he said, had already paid for those Patriot and AIM-9X rounds. “We have almost no Patriot interceptors left from the US partners,” he told them.
On Tuesday, Marco Rubio phoned Zelensky and insisted that nobody had ordered any change. He blamed technical glitches for the missing warnings. He did concede that Patriot deliveries might slip, because America must protect its own bases. Trump, for his part, said Zelensky does not understand the issues and suggested someone else should negotiate for Ukraine.
Meddling in the midterms?
The timing turns routine diplomacy into something far more combustible. Americans vote in the midterms on 3 November, barely a fortnight away. Diesel now costs more than $6 a gallon, and Trump blames Ukraine’s refinery strikes for the pain.
Critics argue that Zelensky has stopped lobbying and started campaigning. Within ten days, he has attacked Trump’s policy on Piers Morgan’s show, on NPR and in the Financial Times. Each interview hands Democrats a ready-made charge: Trump has sided with Putin. Now he has taken his case straight to the Senate, just as voters prepare to decide who controls it.
Zelensky himself links his troubles to the American calendar. He called the pre-election period “agony” and predicted calmer relations once Americans finish voting. To his detractors, that sounds like a leader waiting for a friendlier Congress. A foreign president who works the Senate against the White House before an election invites the charge of interference.
Will Zelensky go?
Trump plainly wants him out. On 10 October, he urged Ukrainians to find a new leader “who can make a deal”. The Kremlin welcomed the idea, and Elon Musk echoed it on X days later.
Yet Washington cannot sack a Ukrainian president. His five-year term formally lapsed in 2024, but martial law bars any vote. At home, he still commands a majority. In a September survey, 54 per cent of Ukrainians said they trusted him.
Rivals loom, however: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, his former army chief, enjoys higher trust. Many of Zelensky’s softer backers also want someone else after the war. So Zelensky will probably stay until the guns fall silent. After that, Ukrainian voters, not the White House, will settle his fate.
Can Ukraine survive without America?
Ukraine has already learnt to live with less American money. Washington has sent almost no direct aid since Trump returned in January 2025. Europe has stepped into the breach. The EU’s €90 billion loan should cover about two-thirds of Kyiv’s needs for 2026 and 2027. By early 2025, Ukraine already built or financed more than half of its military equipment.
But Europe still cannot match American Patriot interceptors, real-time missile warnings or Starshield links. Russian strikes recently left more than 600,000 people without electricity. Fewer warnings and fewer interceptors mean more dead civilians and darker cities. So Ukraine can survive without America, but it will bleed far more heavily. Its fate hinges on how quickly Europe builds what cash alone cannot buy.
A fight for survival
Is Zelensky, then, fighting for his own survival? Partly, yes. A leader who loses Washington’s favour, his Patriots and his satellite links also loses leverage at the table. Weakness would let Moscow and Washington write the peace terms over his head.
Yet his personal survival and his country’s survival now overlap almost entirely. He has even offered a compromise: a 30-day pause on refinery strikes in exchange for Patriot missiles. Trump’s envoys have shown no interest. Next week, Zelensky may meet them in Oslo, possibly before they fly on to Moscow. That meeting will matter more than any Senate call.
Senators can protest, but only the White House can release the Patriots. Zelensky has bet that noise in Washington can still buy missiles. After 3 November, he will learn whether he bet wisely.