Israel’s Arab parties back Eisenkot for prime minister, and that choice could end the Netanyahu era. The move hands the former army chief a paper majority. It also hands him the hardest dilemma of his short political career.
What has happened?
Israelis voted on 27 October. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot’s four-party, Jewish-led bloc won 48. The Joint List and Ra’am took the remaining 19, a record haul. Arab voters powered that surge. Their turnout doubled to about 80 per cent.
Representatives of both lists met in Nazareth on Monday to coordinate. Both now signal they will recommend Eisenkot to President Isaac Herzog.
That step could give Eisenkot 67 recommendations against Netanyahu’s 53. Herzog opened his consultations with party leaders on Wednesday.
Why does Arab support matter so much?
The arithmetic leaves little room. Neither rival bloc can reach the 61-seat majority alone. If he shuns the Arab parties, Eisenkot needs roughly 13 defectors.
Ra’am offers the more flexible partner. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, said Eisenkot’s conditions ‘will not be an obstacle’. Abbas has long sought the internal security portfolio in return for joining.
Ra’am also brings precedent. In 2021 it became the first independent Arab party to formally join an Israeli government.
The Joint List takes a harder line. Its leader, Yousef Jabareen, refuses to join any coalition while Israel’s occupation of the West Bank continues. He will, however, consider backing Eisenkot from outside the government.
Will Eisenkot accept the support?
Publicly, he resists. Privately, he may run out of alternatives.
Eisenkot set four principles for any partner. They include recognising Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. They also require mandatory military, national or civilian service.
His allies tighten the vice. Avigdor Liberman backs Eisenkot for prime minister but rejects any minority government relying on Arab votes. ‘It won’t happen,’ Liberman declared.
Naftali Bennett shares that view. He fears such a government would collapse and return Netanyahu stronger.
Eisenkot sends mixed signals. At Tuesday’s bloc meeting, he nodded as Liberman closed the door on Arab cooperation. Yet he has not publicly ruled out Arab backing.
Netanyahu’s camp raises the cost further. Likud has suggested that such a partnership would amount to treason.
The likeliest outcome is a quiet workaround rather than a formal pact. One proposal has Ra’am’s Jewish lawmaker, Yoav Segalovitz, voting for the government. The other Arab lawmakers and United Torah Judaism would abstain.
That formula lets Eisenkot take office without signing a deal with the Joint List. It still needs Ra’am’s goodwill, Liberman’s consent and an unlikely truce over ultra-Orthodox conscription.
How will this reshape Israeli politics?
The Arab vote has stopped being a footnote. Arab-led lists now hold nearly one in six Knesset seats. Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv urging a Jewish-Arab deal. Netanyahu’s camp alleges foreign interference in the Arab vote. Police investigated and discounted those claims, though a Shin Bet probe continues. Herzog has also condemned racist rhetoric against Arab citizens.
The counterargument deserves a hearing. Critics warn that reliance on Arab votes would strain the government’s legitimacy among Jewish voters. Netanyahu also argues that Likud’s 27 seats, the most of any party, give him a mandate.
Even so, the old taboo is cracking.
What do the US midterms mean for Israel?
American voters have delivered a second shock. Democrats seized both the House and the Senate on 3 November. Trump admitted that the Iran war and fuel prices hurt Republicans.
On polling day itself, Trump made a startling announcement. He said Washington would halt roughly $4 billion in yearly military aid to Israel by year’s end. Israeli defence officials said the news surprised them.
Eisenkot branded Netanyahu’s conduct dangerous. ‘Netanyahu must provide answers to Israeli citizens, tonight,’ he demanded.
The new Congress will likely scrutinise Israel far more closely. Democrats may intensify oversight of Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Aid and arms sales could face fresh obstacles.
Shifting opinion drives this change. A June Quinnipiac poll found 66 per cent of Democrats think Washington supports Israel too much.
Michigan also elected Abdul El-Sayed, a vocal opponent of US aid to Israel. He will become America’s first Muslim senator.
Netanyahu’s rivals seized the moment. Golan said the results reveal ‘just how toxic Netanyahu is’. Lapid argued they eliminate any chance of a unity government under Netanyahu.
What comes next for Israel?
The new Knesset convenes on 10 November. Whoever receives Herzog’s mandate gets 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension.
Three paths now lie ahead. Eisenkot could build a fragile minority government that leans on Arab abstentions. Talks could collapse and drag Israel into another election, which Herzog wants to avoid.
A security crisis, perhaps renewed war with Iran, could also reshuffle the deck in Netanyahu’s favour.
The midterms tilt the odds towards the first path. Netanyahu built his campaign around his bond with Trump. That bond now looks like a liability.
Even right-wing journalist Ariel Kahana calls Netanyahu ‘a burden on Israel’. An Eisenkot government would not end the argument in Washington. It would, however, offer Democrats a fresh Israeli partner.
Eisenkot may never embrace the Arab parties openly. He may simply discover that he cannot govern without them.
