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 What if Trump Lifts Sanctions and recognizes the Eastern Ukraine territory as Russian? If Putin accepts the ceasefire, Will Zelenskyy accept the Conditions? Analysis 

Smriti Singh by Smriti Singh
August 8, 2025
in Geopolitics
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Under the scorching desert sun, a summit unfolded that may well alter the course of the Ukraine war. Two key figures — former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — met for a high-stakes discussion. The most conspicuous absence? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

This was not a negotiation involving all stakeholders. This was a reckoning — one where Ukraine’s future was debated without Ukraine at the table.

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Zelensky Sidelined

Once lauded as the “Churchill of our time,” Zelensky now finds himself increasingly marginalized by both allies and adversaries. Once celebrated by Western media and political elites, he was nowhere near the negotiation table in Abu Dhabi. Reports suggest he spent the day frantically calling European leaders and the White House, seeking inclusion. His calls went unanswered.

The symbolism is stark. While Trump and Putin discuss an endgame for the war, Zelensky’s influence appears to have waned. Once the face of global resistance, he now appears isolated, clinging to diminishing Western support as Ukraine faces mounting military setbacks and economic collapse.

Putin’s Demands: A Hard Reality Check

Sources close to the summit indicate that Putin’s ceasefire terms include:

Full Ukrainian military withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

A binding commitment from Ukraine never to join NATO.

Recognition of Russia’s control over its annexed territories.

Ukraine’s adoption of a neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status.

An end to Western military aid to Kyiv.

These are not minor concessions. They reflect a shift in leverage — away from Kyiv and toward Moscow.

The West’s Fatigue and Trump’s Strategy

In Washington and across Europe, support for Ukraine is eroding. After pouring more than $200 billion into the war effort, the Biden administration now faces criticism for achieving little more than a bloody stalemate. Inflation has spiked. Europe struggles with energy costs and industrial decline. Public patience is thinning.

Enter Donald Trump.

While critics once mocked his claim that he could end the war within 24 hours, his actions suggest a determined, realist approach. Trump understands that peace isn’t won with lofty speeches about “values” or “democracy.” It’s achieved through power dynamics — and Putin holds the cards.

Seven months into Trump’s second term, his push for a ceasefire — even if imperfect — may be closer to fruition than anything attempted under the Biden administration.

Zelensky’s Shrinking Support

Zelensky’s appeals for continued Western backing have lost their resonance. His promises of “total victory” are increasingly seen as unrealistic. On the ground, Ukrainian forces are stretched thin. Morale is low. A recent Gallup poll shows declining domestic support for a prolonged war. Many Ukrainians now say they would accept a compromise to achieve peace.

Still, Zelensky remains defiant — demanding more weapons, more funding, and more time. But without international backing and with his nation exhausted, his position appears increasingly untenable.

Putin: The Long Game Pays Off

Far from being the isolated pariah the West once hoped to make him, Putin has weathered sanctions, rerouted energy exports, and strengthened ties with powers like China and India. With control over roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory and a divided West, he enters the Abu Dhabi summit as a statesman — not an outcast.

And whether one supports or opposes his actions, the strategic victory is hard to deny.

The Geopolitical Implications

If Trump and Putin reach even a partial ceasefire agreement, the global balance could shift dramatically:

Ukraine’s NATO ambitions would be dead in the water.

Hopes of retaking Crimea would vanish.

The Western goal of weakening Russia might prove illusory.

For Zelensky, it would mean more than military defeat — it would mean political irrelevance. Excluded from talks. Abandoned by partners. Relegated to the sidelines of a war he no longer controls.

A Harsh Verdict on the West’s Role

The conflict, initially framed as a noble stand against authoritarian aggression, increasingly resembles a geopolitical proxy war — with Ukraine paying the price. Critics now argue that Ukraine was never fighting solely for its sovereignty, but was instead used as a tool in NATO’s broader strategy to contain Russia.

If true, the consequences are damning. The illusion of Western unity has cracked. The fantasy of regime change in Moscow has faded. And the hope for a “total Ukrainian victory” has evaporated.

A Turning Point

Abu Dhabi may well be remembered not as the place where peace was secured, but where illusions were shattered.

The Trump–Putin summit suggests that the world is moving on — and Zelensky is not being taken along for the ride. While Ukraine continues to bleed, the war is being decided elsewhere, by leaders with power, leverage, and — in Trump’s case — a mandate to end endless wars.

This was never just Ukraine’s war. It was Zelensky’s war, backed by NATO and driven by ideology. And now, it may end — not with victory, but with a deal made in a desert, without him.

“Russia stood firm. Ukraine was used. And if there’s one lesson here — never become a pawn in someone else’s war against their kin.”

Tags: PutinRussia-Ukraine CeasefireTrump
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Smriti Singh

Smriti Singh

Endlessly curious about how power moves across maps and minds

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