Donald Trump wants a Ukraine peace deal, and he no longer hides his impatience. On Tuesday, he told reporters that Volodymyr Zelenskyy must want a settlement or face grim consequences. When reporters asked whether Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin should meet, Trump called a meeting unnecessary. He said the two leaders loathe each other too much to share a room. “I don’t care how it’s done,” he added.
Today, his envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg. He carries proposals that Ukraine and its European partners shaped in Oslo a day earlier. Ukraine will not sit at that table. So what does Trump want, and should conservatives cheer him on?
What happened in Oslo?
Zelenskyy met Witkoff in Oslo on Tuesday, alongside the leaders of Norway and Finland. European and NATO officials joined them. A US official called the talks constructive. The agenda covered security guarantees for Ukraine, a post-war economic plan and Europe’s wider security. Zelenskyy also pushed for a three-way summit of leaders. Witkoff now tests that idea on Putin.
Witkoff and Jared Kushner have visited Russia repeatedly over the past two years. Their last trip, in early September, ended with their first joint visit to Kyiv. The Kremlin, however, promises nothing this time. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov declined to predict any agreement today.
Why does Trump want a Ukraine peace deal so badly?
Four motives stand out.
Politics. Americans vote in the midterm elections on 3 November. Diesel recently averaged $6.28 a gallon, and farm-state Republicans feel the squeeze. Trump has urged Republicans to treat the vote as a referendum on him. A peace deal would hand him a headline win before polling day. It would also vindicate his recent pact to let Russian diesel flow onto world markets.
Money. Trump argues that America and Europe have spent huge sums and that Europe has tired of the war. Many conservative voters share that fatigue.
Strategy. Trump sees Russia as a vast country with almost limitless manpower. He believes time favours Moscow, not Kyiv. Zelenskyy says the Iran war has also pulled scarce Patriot interceptors towards the Middle East.
Legacy. Trump styles himself a peacemaker and claims credit for ending several wars. He also wants a wider reset with Moscow, starting with energy.
How is Washington squeezing Kyiv?
The pressure takes several forms. On 16 October, Trump waived new Russia sanctions and tariffs two days before they took effect. The law threatened 500 per cent tariffs on Russian goods and 100 per cent on Russia’s biggest oil customers. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev hailed the waiver as historic.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy says Washington now supplies only 12 Patriot interceptors a month. He puts that at roughly a quarter of the Biden-era rate. He has offered to halt strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for more Patriots. Ukrainian troops also suffered slowdowns on Starshield, the military version of Starlink. Trump’s team denies any White House rolein those limits. Earlier this month, Trump even said Ukraine needs a new president. Zelenskyy now accuses Washington of nudging Ukraine towards capitulation.
Is Trump right?
Trump has a fair case on several points. Ending a war that claims young lives on both sides is a moral aim, not a betrayal. Asking Europe to carry more of the burden is prudence, not isolationism. Realism also demands honesty about the battlefield and the limits of Western support.
Yet his method raises real questions. Mediators usually keep pressure on both sides to hold their leverage. Trump has relaxed measures on Moscow while tightening them on Kyiv. That imbalance weakens Washington’s hand at the table. It also leaves Ukraine anxious rather than convinced. Kyiv needs reassurance, not just deadlines.
The waiver also sidesteps a Senate that backed the Graham Act by 86 votes to 11. Republican Senator Thom Tillis called the move “more than irresponsible”. Trump’s defenders counter that leverage works only on the party willing to move. They also stress that Trump can reimpose the penalties whenever he chooses.
Above all, a peace that Washington imposes on Ukraine may not last. Any durable settlement needs buy-in from Kyiv, Moscow and European capitals alike. It must also address the security concerns of every party. Europe, for its part, must match its rhetoric with real commitments.
What happens next?
Much now depends on Putin’s reply to Witkoff. The envoy aims to open a path to direct three-way talks. He may also seek freedom for Stephen Hubbard, an American prisoner in Russia. Zelenskyy, for his part, hopes relations improve after the midterms.
Trump deserves credit for keeping both capitals talking. But how a deal happens matters more than he admits. A durable peace needs firm guarantees for Ukraine and real costs for Russia. Without them, Trump may win a headline in November and lose the peace by spring.
