Russia has just come out with two very important geopolitical messages- one to the US and the other to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both the geopolitical messages are being interestingly delivered by a single move- proposals for massive defence budget cuts.
According to the latest reports, the Russian Finance Ministry has proposed a string of cuts. The proposals include a potential 10% reduction in the number of personnel across Russian armed forces and a hike in the number of service years required to qualify for a military pension. The latest defence budget cut proposals become significant, at a time when the Western media is increasingly clubbing Russia and the PRC together as leaders of the authoritarian world.
Moscow is suggesting that it is not ready to be clubbed with Beijing and that Beijing must fight its own battles. It is also implying that Russia is not a threat to the US or even the Transatlantic world led by NATO.
The Russian Finance Ministry’s suggestions could lead to the Putin administration slashing some 100,000 troops. Russia’s Defence Ministry has reportedly rejected the proposals and said, “The proposal by the finance ministry to reduce the number of (military) posts will have zero economic effect.” However, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has disclosed that no final decision has been made in the matter as of now.
Meanwhile, Stratfor Worldview, an American geopolitical intelligence platform has reported, “Russia’s current economic situation, however, will still make some spending cuts unavoidable.”
Some defence budget cuts, therefore, might become inevitable for Moscow. Now, this doesn’t go in line with the popular perception of a so-called alliance between Russia and China. Had Russia actually been fearful of the changing global realities, the escalating US-China tensions and the strengthening of the Quad, Putin would have strengthened Russia’s defences, even if such military boosts came at the expense of the Russian economy.
So, in a way, Russia is telling Beijing that it doesn’t have to do anything with China’s battles against the United States or any other country of the world. China will have to fight its own battles, while Russia will afford the luxury of taking the backseat. All in all, Russia doesn’t consider China’s enemies as its own enemies despite all the hype that is being built around Sino-Russian camaraderie or the strategic “axis of convenience” between Moscow and Beijing.
On the other hand, if Moscow trims down its military firepower, then it will also send a signal to the White House. Putin can easily convince the US and even the rest of the Western world that Moscow’s energies are not focussed upon its Cold War-era competitors. A new Moscow that takes the backseat in terms of military firepower will be nothing less than Russia extending an olive branch to the US.
Till now, Russia was actually seen as a threat because of its military posturing. But if the Kremlin actually decides to reduce military expenditure and tone down the level of posturing, then it will also become clear that Moscow isn’t doing anything which could create new conflicts, tensions and wars in sensitive parts of the world.
Of course, Russia and the US will remain structurally different from each other and because of all the history that they have behind them, Washington and Moscow will not become the best of friends. But if Moscow stops showing its military muscle, then the US and Russia will not have to remain arch-enemies either.
By taking away the overhyped threat that the Russian military posturing creates, Putin is trying to convince the free world led by the US that he is not their enemy and that there remains some space for cooperation between the West and Russia.
Russia didn’t make any official statement, yet the defence budget cut proposed by the Russian Finance Ministry seems to be speaking volumes about the direction in which the Kremlin’s foreign policy is headed. At a crucial stage, Putin is clearly abandoning the paper Dragon and letting the free world destroy the People’s Republic of China while Russia takes the backseat.