With US Presidential Election results getting marred in voter fraud allegations, the People’s Republic of China has suddenly found itself in an awkward position. Till now, China was getting increasingly belligerent but now the paper dragon can be seen bringing its aggressive expansionism to a grinding halt and starting with a clean slate all over again.
Ever since the US Presidential poll results were declared, China has made three significant changes in its behaviour- one, it has shown signs of initiating a disengagement process with India in Eastern Ladakh where the Indian Army and the Chinese PLA are currently locked in a tense standoff. Two, the paper dragon has toned down its bellicose Taiwan narrative and three, Beijing has restricted itself from raking the Senkaku Islands dispute with Japan.
At the root of the ongoing drawdown in Chinese belligerence is the uncertainty in American leadership. No one knows if the US President Donald Trump will be successful in challenging Joe Biden’s impulsive victory declaration after the American Presidential polls. But for Beijing, the only reasonable course seems to be to calm down tempers at all fronts.
Take the Sino-India military stand off in the Eastern Ladakh sector, for instance. Latest reports suggest that a three-step disengagement process has been agreed upon. If these latest reports are to be believed, then we are moving towards a complete withdrawal of troops and ammunition to the pre-standoff positions and restoration status quo ante.
In case of Taiwan also, the CCP is changing its narrative. Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council, did try to put up a brave face and suggest that China will not change its Taiwan policy in the context of US Elections. But consciously or subconsciously, she did speak in the language of peaceful development of cross-Strait relations while emphasising upon efforts to reunify Taiwan and mainland China.
For the past few months, China was speaking about invading Taiwan. In May, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang even dropped the world “peaceful” while speaking about Beijing’s intent to “re-unify” mainland China with Taiwan. But now, China is once again talking in terms of peaceful reunification, clearly watering down its aggression against Taiwan.
As for Japan, China hasn’t made any defensive remarks. But all of a sudden, reports of Chinese vessels venturing into Japanese waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea have vanished. Earlier, China was constantly nagging Japan near the Senkaku Islands, a Japanese territory, but after the US Presidential polls, Beijing has simply avoided East China Sea tensions.
China seems to understand that there is no certainty about who is going to lead the United States. Anyhow, Trump seems to be even more irritated and angry towards China. He has even replaced US Defence Secretary Mark Esper, who was seen as willing to communicate with Beijing, with Acting Defence Secretary Christopher Miller, a Special Forces veteran.
With a former Special Forces commander in office, the Pentagon could be waiting for China to make a mistake on any of its fronts. If China crosses the dangerous red line in the near future, then the Trump administration could come out all guns blazing. China simply cannot afford the consequences of an accidental confrontation with the US.
Also, if Joe Biden actually overcomes the legal challenge to US Presidential poll results and comes to power in January next year, even then China cannot afford to be belligerent. Xi Jinping expects Biden to go a bit soft on China. But for that, he must start with a clean slate. If China is found to be the real villain disturbing peace and order in the Indo-Pacific, then Biden won’t be able to go soft on China, regardless of his political ideology.
With uncertainty looming over US leadership, China has to hold its horses and overcome its expansionist urges. And therefore, Beijing is dialing down the level of aggression on all its fronts.