Paraguay elections: In recent years, Latin America has seen a trend of people voting out incumbents, yet Paraguay may challenge this on April 30.
On April 30, Paraguayan citizens will choose whether the Colorado Party, which is in power, will stay in control.
Colorado isn’t any other party, it’s an empire. The party has had a strong presence in Paraguayan politics. For the past 77 years, the Colorado Party has been the largest and most organised political organisation in the country, controlling the presidency all but five of those years.
The current President, Mario Abdo Benítez, is not allowed to seek re-elections in Paraguay because of corruption charges. Abdo Benítez, who assumed his post in 2018, holds an approval rating of only 18.6 percent and his party has been rocked by scandals.
Santiago Peña of the Colorado Party, who was previously the nation’s finance minister, will be running for President.
The Colorado Party is being challenged this time by the Concertación coalition of 23 parties and 2 movements. Efraín Alegre, a lawyer and three-time presidential candidate, has been chosen by the coalition after winning their primary.
Alegre’s party is the second most influential political entity in Paraguay and is popular with urban and rural citizens alike. It has formed partnerships with smaller parties, such as the Lugo-led Guasú Front, which has provided Alegre’s party with considerable aid from leftist factions and grassroots social movements.
Recent polls suggest that Alegre is slightly ahead of Peña, but it is too close to make a definitive prediction.
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Peña and Alegre are the frontrunners in the polls, but 11 other candidates are also running for president. Two of these candidates, Paraguayo “Payo” Cubas and Euclides Acevedo, have higher than 5 percent support and could take votes away from either of the main contenders.
According to a June 2022 poll, 70% of Paraguayans want substantial changes.
Foreign policy has emerged as a major divider in these polls. It will have major implications in geopolitics.
Paraguay elections: Taiwan and West
The outcome of the upcoming general elections in Paraguay has great implications for both Taiwan and the West. The stakes are high as the country’s presidential candidates have put forth different positions regarding the future of Paraguay’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This has resulted in a heated debate and a close contest between the two leading candidates, Efrain Alegre of the opposition and Santiago Pena of the ruling Colorado Party.
If the opposition wins, Alegre has promised to break diplomatic ties with Taiwan and open relations with China, while Pena has promised to maintain existing ties with Taiwan. This would have major implications for both Taiwan and the West.
For Taiwan, the loss of an ally in the Latin American region would be a major diplomatic and political blow. It would also be a sign of China’s growing influence in the region and its ability to pressure other countries to switch diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing. This would be a major setback for Taiwan’s efforts to gain international recognition and legitimacy.
For the West, particularly the United States, the loss of an ally in Latin America and the potential for increased Chinese influence in the region would be of great concern. The US has long sought to ensure its presence in South America, so the loss of a staunch ally like Paraguay would be a major blow to Washington as well.
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The agricultural sector in Paraguay is another major factor in the debate. The ruling party candidate has promised to maintain ties with Taiwan, while the opposition candidate has promised to open relations with China in order to gain access to its huge soy and beef markets.
This is of particular importance to Paraguay’s farmers, who are currently suffering a major loss due to their lack of access to China’s markets. To put things in perspective, agriculture and livestock sectors account for 17 percent of gross domestic product.
Therefore, the outcome of the election in Paraguay, then, will have major implications for both Taiwan and the West. For Taiwan, it could mean a major blow to its efforts to gain international support, while for the West it could mean a loss of a key ally in Latin America and a further increase of Chinese influence in the region. It is clear that the Paraguay elections will have far-reaching consequences and it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.
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