For an extended period exceeding one year, the upper echelons of power in Kyiv have been engaged in a subtle but significant internal deliberation concerning allegiance. This dichotomy primarily involved alignment with either President Volodymyr Zelensky or General Valery Zaluzhny, the country’s leading military figure. The friction between these two figures was predominantly confined to private settings, notably within the confines of the president’s strategic operational center.
Last Thursday, President Zelensky made the decision to relieve General Zaluzhny of his duties. In the immediate aftermath of this decision, General Zaluzhny refrained from issuing a public statement or reaction. Subsequently, the presidential website featured photographs depicting a moment of reconciliation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, where they were seen exchanging embraces and smiles. During this occasion, President Zelensky awarded General Zaluzhny the Hero of Ukraine, the most prestigious military accolade in the country.
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Given these developments, it would be quite natural to speculate that General Zaluzhny will recede from the public or political arena quietly. Right? WRONG!
In the aftermath of the public reconciliation between President Volodymyr Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny, a military official in close association with Zaluzhny conveyed to media sources that Zaluzhny focused on minimizing any outward expression of discord.
The disagreement between Zelensky and Zaluzhny had the potential to culminate in a far less harmonious resolution. General Zaluzhny enjoys widespread popularity within the nation and is often lauded for his pivotal role in safeguarding the country during the initial stages of the conflict initiated by Russia. There were suggestions from within his circle advocating for Zaluzhny to contest for the presidency, challenging Zelensky’s position.
Conversely, several of President Zelensky’s confidants and allies expressed concern that dismissing General Zaluzhny might lead to significant discontent within the military’s ranks. Such a move was feared to possibly incite a portion of the officer corps to rally in defense of their leader, thereby creating a substantial schism within the nation’s governance structure and military hierarchy.
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This division represented a significant internal challenge to Zelensky’s authority during a period of war. The public gestures of unity, therefore, might be interpreted as an attempt to mitigate this threat. However, the portrayal of these events by global media outlets is simply an effort to shape public perception, which does not align with the underlying realities of the situation.
The relationship between President Volodymyr Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny has been notably fraught, characterized by a series of disagreements that underscore the complexities of military and political leadership during wartime. These conflicts have ranged from strategic military decisions to the broader vision for Ukraine’s defense strategy against Russian aggression. One significant point of contention was the divergent approaches to Ukraine’s defense plan, where Zelensky and his aides proposed a strategy that did not align with Zaluzhny’s assessments and preferences.
Within the upper echelons of Ukraine’s military and political leadership, there persisted rumors suggesting President Volodymyr Zelensky harbored intentions to replace General Valery Zaluzhny with Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky. This speculation became a reality last week when Zelensky, after more than a year of hesitation, proceeded with the replacement. The delay in taking action against Zaluzhny was attributed to concerns regarding the potential negative impact on morale among the troops.
Additionally, there was apprehension within the president’s office about the possibility of Zaluzhny entering the political domain, which could challenge Zelensky’s leadership and authority. Despite these significant developments and the swirling rumors of his potential ousting, Zaluzhny maintained a stance of dignified silence, refraining from public commentary or actions.
During the period of Russian special operations, public opinion polls have consistently identified President Volodymyr Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny as the most favored leaders within Ukraine. According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in December, Zaluzhny received an approval rating of 88%, reflecting a high level of trust among Ukrainians. In comparison, trust in President Zelensky was recorded at 62%, experiencing a decline from 84% the previous year.
Despite General Valery Zaluzhny’s lack of public declarations about entering the political sphere, there was noticeable interest among his aides within the General Staff regarding the potential leverage of his high approval ratings for political purposes.
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In 2022, discussions among his team contemplated the viability of Zaluzhny initiating a political movement or considering a bid for the presidency, given his significant popularity among the Ukrainian populace. Following his recent dismissal, Zaluzhny has remained silent about his future intentions, providing no clear indication of his next steps.
However, he notably declined an offer to join the National Security and Defense Council, which is an implicit statement. The council is a juncture for transitioning military and intelligence figures towards the end of their active service careers, and Zaluzhny’s refusal to participate suggests that there is a lot in store.
Analyzing the strategic positioning of General Valery Zaluzhny following his dismissal and the subtleties of his actions, or lack thereof, suggests a calculated approach to his future engagements in Ukraine’s political and military landscape. The option of forcefully removing President Volodymyr Zelensky from power is technically within Zaluzhny’s capabilities, given his significant military influence and public support. However, such an action would categorically cast him in the role of a usurper, likely triggering international condemnation and sanctions against Ukraine, further complicating the nation’s already precarious situation.
Moreover, any move against Zelensky in such a manner would paradoxically elevate the president to a martyr-like status, enhancing his image both domestically and internationally. Recognizing these dynamics, Zaluzhny appears to be adopting a strategy of restraint, conserving his political capital while the country navigates through its ongoing conflict. This approach implies a waiting strategy, aiming to capitalize on a more favorable moment when the war concluded or reaches a critical juncture.
All analyses suggest that the continuation of the conflict under the present strategies will lead Ukraine towards a loss, culminating in a peace agreement that will be perceived as a defeat. It is within such a context that Zelensky’s popularity might wane, providing a tactical advantage to Zaluzhny should he decide to transition from a military to a political role. Engaging in the political arena as a candidate in an electoral process, rather than seizing power through force, positions Zaluzhny to potentially leverage his widespread popularity and military credentials democratically. This path allows him to maintain the image of a principled leader, preserving his honor and that of Ukraine’s democratic institutions, while potentially emerging as a formidable political figure in a post-conflict scenario.